Changed teams make it a lot less predictable

The first weekend of April isn’t quite the season to be jolly but it does appear to be the time when Vodacom Super Rugby coaches start to rotate their selections in a bid to freshen up their teams, and it is also the time when injuries start to bite.

At first glance you might say that with one possible exception, which has now become less of an exception because of injury and rotation, the home teams should all be favoured in round eight. The exception would have been the game in Brisbane where, had Eben Etzebeth and Pieter-Steph du Toit both been present and the team had been similar to the one that played the Blues last week, you’d expect the away team, the Stormers, to win.

But there have been seven changes to the Stormers side and let’s not forget what happened to the Lions when they were in Brisbane around this time last year. That was a defeat that cost the Johannesburg side momentum, and nearly cost them their usual position at the top of the local conference by the time the season had run its course.

The Stormers team still doesn’t look bad if you look at some of the players who have come in. Cobus Wiese would strengthen many other Super Rugby sides if he was included at No 4 lock for them. But in this case he replaces a particularly influential figure in the form of Etzebeth, who has flown home because of injury. And ditto Kobus van Dyk, who replaces Du Toit.

Seven changes is a lot to make without expecting it to have some impact on playing continuity, so those who want to bet on the Stormers, and it is still just about reasonable to do so, should do so knowing it could backfire.

The Bulls should still start favourites to beat the Jaguares at Loftus, but they too have made a lot of changes. Again, seven is a lot. And while the Jaguares have struggled in South Africa down the years, you get the feeling that they are still good enough to change their luck sometime. It probably is the right time for the Bulls to refresh, and frankly they were horrible even in winning last week, but it is still a risk.

The Lions’ selection for their home game against the Sharks is also an interesting one, and they have the double imponderable of being a team coming off a bye. You’d go with them to beat the Sharks because they are at home and the Sharks are so predictable and rely so much on physical ascendancy, but the result itself might be less predictable than many people think. The Sharks have turned in some good performances at Emirates Airline Park in recent seasons, even in defeat.

It goes without saying that it is another must-win weekend for almost everyone. That, together with the fact that the Sunwolves and the Crusaders respectively, in victory and defeat over the past two weekends, have shown that just about anything is possible on a given day, makes it interesting.

WEEKEND PREVIEWS AND PREDICTIONS

South African Conference

Reds v DHL Stormers (Brisbane, Friday 10:45am)

The word from Australia is that the Reds are in a desperate mood, but then so should the Stormers be. They lost two games they could quite easily have won during the New Zealand leg of their tour. That is no train smash as yet, for you don’t really expect them to win that side of the Tasman Sea. This game is different though. Another defeat, to make it three, will start really ratcheting up the pressure with one game remaining after this, against the in-form Rebels, before they return home for a sequence of Newlands matches that starts with a clash with the Brumbies on Easter Saturday. After the Blues game I was certain they’d beat the Reds, but now the positive prediction for the Stormers is based on hunch, and the desperation factor, and no more than that.

Prediction: Stormers to scrape a win

Emirates Lions v Cell C Sharks (Johannesburg, Friday 7:10pm)

With Handre Pollard not playing for the Bulls this weekend, it could be a good time to place the focus on the quality, or lack of it, of the Springbok back-up. Elton Jantjies is somewhere out in front of the rest, which at the moment, at Super Rugby level, is made up of Robert du Preez (Sharks) and Jean-Luc du Plessis (Stormers). Frankly both have it all to do if they want to prove they belong in their franchise teams, let alone the Boks, and if there is an injury to Pollard or Jantjies, or both, then Bok coach Rassie Erasmus has a massive headache to contend with. The Sharks have pretty much the same team that played last week, but Curwin Bosch could bring something different for them at fullback. Hopefully from a Durban team viewpoint he pops up regularly at first receiver to inject some unpredictability into a Sharks attacking game that has been way too predictable, and pedestrian at times too, up to now. If he does, and it takes some pressure off Robert du Preez junior, who appears to be a bit low on confidence at the moment, the Sharks can definitely win this one. But the Lions start as definite favourites.

Prediction: Lions to scrape a win by 7 or less

Vodacom Bulls v Jaguares (Pretoria, Saturday 3:05pm)

Duane Vermeulen leads the Bulls in the absence of Pollard, who is one of a clutch of Boks who is resting this week. There are seven changes in all the Bulls team, which is risky whichever way you look at it. Manie Libbok takes over the pivot duties, with Embrose Papier at scrumhalf and Burger Odendaal outside him. So experience on one side, not so much on the other, while former Blitzbok Dylan Sage gets to line up in place of Jesse Kriel. The Jaguares have yet to show any signs of picking up the impressive momentum that saw them finish in their best position yet in this competition last year, and on the Highveld they are unlikely to win, regardless of what line-up the Bulls put out. But then isn’t that similar to what we said before the Chiefs game?

Prediction: Bulls to win by 7

Australasian Conference

Highlanders v Hurricanes (Dunedin, Friday 8:35am)

Prediction: Highlanders by 7

Crusaders v Brumbies (Christchurch, Saturday 6:15am)

Prediction: Crusaders by 15

Blues v Waratahs (Auckland, Saturday 8:35am)

Prediction: Blues by 10

Rebels v Sunwolves (Melbourne, Saturday 10:45am)

Prediction: Rebels by 12