URC ROUND 15 PREVIEW: SA needs Lions to back up

It would be easy to suggest that the Emirates Lions have been under the radar for most of the Vodacom United Rugby Championship season, but it’s not quite true. They’ve been under the radar for much of the time, but they’ve exploded into prominence a few times and then faded again.

It was no surprise this week to learn that a focus on becoming more consistent was part of the Lions’ drive in the build-up to Saturday’s crunch clash with champions Munster. It is a crucial game, not just because of what a win would do for the Lions, who are closer to top eight and Investec Champions Cup qualification now than they have ever been, but also to the challenge of the other two South African teams with title ambitions.

The DHL Stormers lost a lot of ground in the hunt for a top-four finish with their lamentably poor performance against the Ospreys that saw them suffer a rare defeat on their home field. But they are still in the running, they just have to rely on the Vodacom Bulls or Munster tripping up while they have to win their remaining four games.

EASIER SAID THAN DONE

That is easier said than done, but given that the Bulls play most of their remaining games at Loftus, and last week’s defeat to Munster should be seen as an aberration, it is probably Munster who are most vulnerable to their intentions. So the Stormers need the Lions to win. So do the Bulls, for Munster are now ahead of them on the log, in third place. It wasn’t long ago the Bulls were second.

The Lions were excellent in the first quarter of an hour against Leinster, but their captain Marius Louw wasn’t happy with the way they allowed the visitors to dominate possession and territory in the last 50 minutes of the game. Their chances of winning against Munster will depend on which Lions team pitches - the one from the first part of the game or the one from the last part.

To be fair, the Lions’ defence was outstanding when they didn’t have the ball, and more of the same will be a big step towards the win that will significantly improve the South African mood.

But a Lions win will only be meaningful for themselves if it isn’t accompanied by the other two teams winning their games. After last week who would want to be making predictions? In the three games in South Africa the results went contrary to what was expected. It is a more competitive competition this season, as shown by the Ospreys winning in Cape Town.

LEINSTER ARE BETTER THAN THEY SHOWED IN JOBURG

And while the Stormers will start as favourites to bounce back with a win over Leinster, the words of their loose-forward Marcel Theunissen, who plays his landmark 50th game on Saturday, should be heeded - “Leinster are not a 44-12 team”. No, they aren’t, and while it should be their second string again that fronts the Stormers, we know the Irish province has enviable depth. If the Stormers hit false notes like they did last week, they will lose again.

Ditto the Bulls, who at least were helped by the Stormers losing in the sense that they will be taking the Ospreys challenge a bit more seriously than they might otherwise have done. By the way, the Osprey’s last visit to altitude was in a Challenge Cup game against the Lions where they scored three tries in the last 10 minutes to steal the game. Something good is happening in Ospreys country, so Bulls be warned.

The only game set for this weekend that doesn’t have a fight for either top eight or top four angle to it is the one on Friday night at Parc Y Scarlets, where the Sharks have their full-strength team back in what is effectively a battle of cellar dwellers on the URC log. What will help the Sharks is the momentum that a win could help them take into next week’s Challenge Cup semifinal.

Round 15 Vodacom United Rugby Championship previews and predictions:

Ulster v Benetton (Belfast, Friday 8:35pm)

This is a massive game to start the weekend of URC action. Ulster are on the margins of the top eight looking in, Benetton are back challenging for the top-four position they held most of the season before a minor slump around the time their top players were either playing in the Six Nations or recovering from it. Ulster only got home by two points last week against Cardiff and haven’t been convincing. So Benetton may be in line for an upset win.

Prediction: Benetton to squeak it.

Scarlets v Hollywoodbets Sharks (Llanelli, Friday 8:35pm)

Bongi Mbonambi is one top player missing from the Sharks team for a game that the coaching staff is insisting is engaging full focus. “We’ve banned talk about the Clermont game this week,” said coach John Plumtree in reference to the following week’s all important EPCR Challenge Cup semifinal in London.

Yet a win will be about creating momentum for that game, with URC log position now of secondary importance to a Sharks team that are out of the running for a top eight finish. Mbonambi will be back for the Challenge Cup game, he arrives in the UK at the weekend after recovering at home from a minor shoulder injury picked up against Edinburgh.

Prediction: Sharks to win by 10

Zebre v Glasgow Warriors (Parma, Saturday 2pm)

The prize on the line for Glasgow in their trip to Italy is a possible top position on the log by the end of this round. The Stormers face Leinster later in the day and a win for the Cape team will enable Glasgow to go past the Dublin side into pole position. The DHL Stadium game kicks off five hours after this one does so Glasgow, if they do complete their expected win, will have a wait before having their status as log leaders confirmed.

Prediction: Glasgow to win by 14

Vodacom Bulls v Ospreys (Pretoria, Saturday 3pm)

Bulls director of rugby Jake White will be demanding a response from his team after their misfire against Munster. He might set Elrigh Louw as the example for the rest of the Bulls players to follow, as he was top of just about every stat against the URC champions. To be fair, the Bulls would probably have won against Munster were it not for the red card to Johan Goosen.

The flyhalf will miss this game and the next two after a midweek DC slapped him with a three-game ban. He was good before his exit against Munster and will be missed but the Bulls should get through against an Ospreys team that probably put in their big effort of the tour in Cape Town.

Prediction: Bulls to win by 12.

Cardiff v Edinburgh (Cardiff, Saturday 4:05pm)

Cardiff proved difficult opponents for Ulster in Ravenhill last week so Edinburgh, who are back in the top eight but only just, will be wary, particularly as Cardiff are always a different animal at home. This is a difficult game to call.

Prediction: Cardiff to win by less than 7

Emirates Lions v Munster (Johannesburg, Saturday 5pm)

Another difficult game to call given that the Lions always struggle to back up their good performances. Last week’s win over Munster ranks right up among the finest performances delivered by the Lions in recent years, but then we’d have said the same after they broke a South African drought in Galway. A week later they lost to the Ospreys.

Okay, so the Ospreys showed in Cape Town that maybe they need to be taken more seriously than they are, but the Lions were as poor in Swansea as they were good in Galway. They will need to be at their best if they are going to help out their fellow South African teams by scoring another win over a top Irish team.

Munster have a good record on South African soil and have been here long enough now to have acclimatised to the altitude. They may have the slight edge.

Prediction: Munster to win by 7 or less.

DHL Stormers v Leinster (Cape Town, Saturday 7:05pm)

Can the Stormers be as poor again as they were against Ospreys? Probably not. There again, can Leinster be as poor as they were in Johannesburg? Again, the answer to that is probably in the negative. Actually, Leinster were poor in the first 20 minutes at Emirates Airlines Park, which was when they conceded 22 points and effectively lost the game.

They were much better after that and dominated possession and territory. Indeed, the post match television interview featuring Lions captain Marius Louw after the game was one of the weirdest - the way Louw spoke, with his disappointment at his team’s inability to get their hands on the ball and get field position in the last 50 minutes, made one wonder if the Lions had lost rather than won by 32 points.

The Stormers fielded a bit of a weakened team against the Ospreys, but a few big guns should be back this week. The team will be announced at lunch time Friday.

Prediction: Stormers to win by 10

Dragons v Connacht (Newport, Saturday 9pm)

Connacht are 11th but just one point behind the sixth and seventh placed Ospreys and Stormers, so they are one of the teams gunning for the top eight. Like all the other teams on the margins of the top eight, a defeat would hurt them significantly. They have a big game against the Stormers up in a few weeks, so it is important they win this game, but the Dragons should make it difficult for them on their home field at Rodney Parade.

Prediction: Connacht to win by 7