Christchurch looks set for another final

It has been an unpredictable Vodacom Super Rugby season but as last week’s round of quarterfinals reminded us, that very seldom holds true for the play-off phase.

There shouldn’t have been too many people who got anything wrong in their Superbru predictions last week. The success rate vacillated wildly during the regular season, but last week you should have been on the money, almost to the point.

There were some who held out hopes of the Cell C Sharks knocking over the Brumbies in Canberra, but that was always fanciful and an example of the heart dominating the brain. The Brumbies have been outstanding at home this year, and the Sharks had to travel many air miles in the two weeks before the game.

Couple that with the Brumbies’ superior organisation, innovation and flair, and it was always going to be a bridge too far for the Durbanites. The Vodacom Bulls were given a better chance of beating the Hurricanes because of the latter team’s potential weakness at forward and so it proved. The Hurricanes were pressed hard in the end to hold on for their win.

It was the game in Buenos Aires though that prompted the most guess work. The Chiefs had to travel a long way, but they had hit irrepressible form once their two top players, Brodie Retallick and Sam Cane, returned to the mix, and they were the last team to beat the Jaguares on their home field.

Although in one way it does defy logic, you’d probably say that Buenos Aires is the venue for the only game that really attracts speculation on who the winner might be this weekend too. The reason it defies logic is because the Brumbies have had to travel, whereas the Crusaders and Hurricanes are effectively playing a derby.

The reason we ignore logic this time though is because we’re talking a matter of degrees. The Jaguares will start as favourites in Buenos Aires in the same way the Crusaders will in Christchurch. It is just that somehow it seems more possible for the Brumbies to win than for the Hurricanes, and that is saying as much about the strength of the Crusaders, particularly on their home field, as anything else.

The Hurricanes looked well short of a gallop against the Bulls and will have to lift their game considerably to challenge the champions. They haven’t in fact come close to the Crusaders in a while and have suffered four fairly comprehensive losses in succession since they turned the Crusaders over in Wellington last March (29-19). One of those was last year’s 16 point defeat in the corresponding semifinal in Christchurch, a game that the Crusaders would have won by an even bigger margin had they not cruised in the second half.

This year the Crusaders have easily had the better of their arch rivals from across the Cook Strait, although it does need to be recorded that when the two sides clashed in Christchurch in the early stages of the competition, Hurricanes coach John Plumtree, probably as an acknowledgement that his opponents were too much of a mountain to climb, fielded close to a second string team.

The game between the two that you need to take seriously is the one that took place in Wellington in March. The Crusaders were playing away but won 32-8. Ouch. That certainly doesn’t bode well for Saturday.

With the Brumbies and the Jaguares it is a bit different because the recent history is a bit different. The Jaguares did win their home game against the Brumbies in the second half of April, but it was close (20-15). Both teams have arguably developed since then, but what might just inspire the Brumbies will be the memory of their previous game in Buenos Aires. That was in 2017, and the Brumbies won 39-15. It isn’t then a venue that should hold too many fears for them.

The Jaguares of 2019 though are a different animal to the animal that represented them two years ago, and while this game is more open than the other one, the smart money should still be on the hosts. And if they do win they’ll be going to Christchurch for the final. Bet your house on it.

SEMI-FINAL TEAM NEWS AND PREDICTIONS

Jaguares v Brumbies (Buenos Aires, Saturday 01.05)

So far we only have a Brumbies touring squad, which does feature a significant absentee. No 8 Pete Samu was in excellent form against the Sharks in the quarterfinal, scoring two tries, but was injured during the game and has not made it to Argentina. He will however feature in the final should the Brumbies progress. The game will be skipper Christian Leali’ifano’s 150th for the franchise, and last if they get beaten.

The Brumbies cooked in the first half against the Sharks last week and will need to do so again if they hope to come close to a Jaguares side that got a taste of tight play-off rugby when they edged home for their narrow but historic win over the Chiefs.

TEAMS

Both teams still to be confirmed.

Prediction: Jaguares by 8

Crusaders v Hurricanes (Christchurch, Saturday 09.35)

?There isn’t much change to either team for this game. Crusaders coach Scott Robertson has kept faith with the unit that did duty in the convincing win over the Highlanders, while John Plumtree has made just one enforced change to the team that beat the Bulls, with Wes Goosen sitting out because of injury and being replaced on the wing by Salesi Rayasi. The Hurricanes do have something to play for other than making the semifinals - they should be determined to give scrumhalf TJ Perenara a fitting result on the occasion where he eclipses the record for the most matches by a Hurricanes player - 127. He overtakes Conrad Smith and Ma’a Nonu, the long serving midfield pairing that currently share the record with him.

TEAMS

Crusaders:

David Havili, Sevu Reece, Jack Goodhue, Ryan Crotty, George Bridge, Richie Mo’unga, Bryn Hall, Kieran Read, Matt Todd, Whetukamokamo Douglas, Sam Whitelock (captain), Scott Barrett, Owen Franks, Codie Taylor, Joe Moody. Replacements: Andrew Makalio, George Bower, Michael Alaalatoa, Luke Romano, Jordan Taufua, Mitchell Drummond, Mitchell Hunt, Braydon Ennor.

Hurricanes:

Jordie Barrett, Salesi Rayasi, Peter Umaga-Jensen, Ngani Laumape, Ben Lam, Beauden Barrett, TJ Perenara, Gareth Evans, Ardie Savea, Reed Prinsep, Isaia Walker-Leawere, James Blackwell, Jeff To’omaga-Allen, Dane Coles (captain), Toby Smith. Replacements: Asafo Aumua, Xavier Numia, Ben May, Kane Le’aupepe, Vaea Fifita, Richard Judd, James Marshall, Jonah Lowe.

Prediction: Crusaders to win by 12