Put your money on the four top teams

It has been a freaky Vodacom Super Rugby season and it has delivered many upsets and a potentially intriguing set of match-ups in the quarterfinals, but don’t bet on the trend continuing into the play-off rounds.

They say that the only thing man has learnt from history is that man doesn’t learn from history, and those who have gone against history to predict away wins in the Super Rugby knock-out phase have tended to discover, then perhaps quickly forget, the hard way that it is folly.

The two places that haven’t been fortresses for home teams in play-off rugby when teams have had to travel across the time zones have been Cape Town, where the Stormers set a trend for themselves when they lost the 1999 semifinal to the Highlanders, and Brisbane, where the Reds have lost twice to the Sharks.

Of course it is different when the visiting team just has to travel inside its country, or across the Tasman Sea, and there is one game this weekend where that is the case. Who’d be crazy enough though to bet against a well rested and full strength Crusaders team, even if they are up against a fellow South Island team in the form of the Highlanders?

Nope, hopeful though South Africans might well be of upsets in Wellington and Canberra, it is unlikely to happen, more so because both visiting teams have spent a lot of time in the air recently.

Perhaps the most interesting game will be the one that is to be played in the middle of the night South African time (early Saturday morning), in Buenos Aires. The Chiefs were the last team to win there, and in that sense the Jaguares might feel they’ve drawn the short straw. Otherwise the play-offs should run to their usual predictable form, with the home teams winning fairly comfortably, and the top four on the final log proceeding to the semifinal round.

QUARTERFINAL PREVIEWS, TEAM LISTS AND PREDICTIONS

Crusaders v Highlanders (Christchurch, Friday 09.35)

Owen Franks and Codie Taylor have been passed fit so the Crusaders will unleash their full All Black front row for the first time this season. Tighthead prop Franks will be playing his first game since tearing a shoulder muscle in April, while Taylor has recovered from a broken finger. With all the top names - Kieran Read, Ryan Crotty, Richie Mo’unga, Sevu Reece, Taylor, Franks, Tom Moody and company - in the starting team, the Crusaders have the luxury of having experienced players such as Luke Romano, Jordan Taufua, Tim Perry and Braydon Ennor playing off the bench.

The Crusaders will therefore start as overwhelming favourites on their home ground, though they will be wary of the south island derby element to this game. The Highlanders, who finished off the regular season with a flourish by smashing the Waratahs last week, have often raised their game against their neighbours and if they push the Crusaders on Friday it wouldn’t be for the first time. They also have All Black fullback Ben Smith back to co-captain the team after being away for a while with injury.

But while the Highlanders could be competitive for part of the game, it is hard to see them winning. The gap between them in terms of log position - Crusaders are first, the Highlanders eighth - is an accurate reflection of their respective abilities and the Crusaders are rested after finishing the regular season with a bye.

Teams

Crusaders: David Havili, Sevu Reece, Jack Goodhue, Ryan Crotty, George Bridge, Richie Mo’unga, Bryn Hall, Kieran Read, Matt Todd, Whetukamokamo Douglas, Sam Whitelock (c), Scott Barrett, Owen Franks, Codie Taylor, Joe Moody. Replacements: Andrew Makalio, Tim Perry, Michael Alaalatoa, Luke Romano, Jordan Taufua, Mitchell Drummond, Mitchell Hunt, Braydon Ennor.

Highlanders: Ben Smith (co-capt), Waisake Naholo, Rob Thompson, Teihorangi Walden, Patelesio Tomkinson, Josh Ioane, Aaron Smith, Luke Whitelock (co-capt), James Lentjes, Liam Squire, Tom Franklin, Jackson Hemopo, Tyrel Lomax, Liam Coltman, Daniel Lienert-Brown. Replacements: Ash Dixon, Ayden Johnstone, Siate Tokolahi, Josh Dickson, Shannon Frizell, Elliot Dixon, Kayne Hammington, Marty Banks

Referee: Jaco Peyper (SA)

Prediction: Crusaders by 18

Jaguares v Chiefs (Buenos Aires, Saturday 00.05)

The gut feeling is that good though the Jaguares have been recently, this could be the game where there is most likelihood of an upset. The Chiefs were the last team to knock over the Jaguares in Buenos Aires, and they have been in good form ever since the All Black duo of Sam Cane and Brodie Retallick returned to their pack.

However, the Jaguares did have the luxury of being able to rest almost their entire first choice team last week against the Sunwovles. And they still won 52-10. Only wing Sebastian Cancellieri and centre Matias Orlando have retained their places from that side, so the Jaguares will be fresh. They have lost only one of their last 10 games so the winning habit is with them, but it could be close against a Chiefs side that has won away play-off games in the past (twice in Cape Town in recent years).

Teams

Jaguares: Emiliano Boffelli, Sebastian Cancelliere, Matias Orlando, Jeronimo de la Fuente (c), Matias Moroni, Joaquin Diaz Bonilla, Tomas Cubelli, Javier Ortega Desio, Marcos Kremer, Pablo Matera, Tomas Lavanini, Guido Petti, Santiago Medrano, Agustin Creevy, Mayco Vivas. Replacements: Julian Montoya, Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, Enrique Pieretto, Tomas Lezana, Francisco Gorrissen, Felipe Ezcurra, Domingo Miotti, Santiago Carreras.

Chiefs: Solomon Alaimalo, Shaun Stevenson, Tumua Manu, Anton Lienert-Brown, Sean Wainui, Jack Debreczeni, Brad Weber, Pita Gus Sowakula, Sam Cane (c), Lachlan Boshier, Tyler Ardron, Brodie Retallick, Angus Ta’avao, Nathan Harris, Atu Moli. Replacements: Samisoni Taukei’aho, Aidan Ross, Nepo Laulala, Jesse Parete, Mitchell Jacbobson, Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi, Marty McKenzie, Alex Nankivell/Ataata Moeakiola.

Referee: Glen Jackson (NZ)

Prediction: Jaguares to scrape it by less than 7

Hurricanes v Vodacom Bulls (Wellington, Saturday 09.45)

The Hurricanes have been given extra motivation to play out of their skins in this game by the selection of the All Black halfback pairing of TJ Perenara and Beauden Barrett into the starting team - because it just happens to be their landmark 100th game together in the Hurricanes jersey. Perenara played off the bench last week while Barrett was rested. Having Barrett line up with his Springbok adversary Handre Pollard as his opposite number adds interest to an already intriguing contest.

John Plumtree selected a weakened team for the last league match against the Blues (and they won) but has returned most of the first choice players to the starting line-up, which could spell problems for a Bulls team that has had to cross the Indian Ocean and Tasman Sea twice in opposite directions in the space of a week. The hosts are as fresh as they could possibly be at this stage of the season.

The same can’t be said for the Bulls, though they were very good last week against the Lions and also do have one key player back who must be hungry for rugby after an injury enforced break. Coach Pote Human has said that Jesse Kriel’s return to the side has given the rest of the players a lift, and they may need it. Other Bulls team news is that experienced hooker Schalk Brits did not make it back, with Jaco Visagie continuing at hooker, while Johnny Kotze joins Kriel in the midfield in the absence of the injured Burger Odendaal.

It will be in the forwards though that the Bulls will pose the biggest threat to the Hurricanes and the good news here for Bulls fans is that Springbok lock Jason Jenkins makes a welcome return alongside RG Snyman in the second row.

Of the two games involving South African sides this is the one most likely to deliver an upset in the sense that the Bulls are strong in the precise area where the Hurricanes might be vulnerable. If the match was being played at a neutral venue, or at Loftus, you might even say the Bulls have a chance of winning. But Wellington is not a neutral venue and the journey to get there should count heavily against the visitors.

Teams

Hurricanes: Jordie Barrett, Wes Goosen, Peter Umaga-Jensen, Ngani Laumape, Ben Lam, Beauden Barrett, TJ Perenara, Gareth Evans, Ardie Savea, Reed Prinsep, Isaia Walker-Leawere, James Blackwell, Jeff To’omaga-Allen, Dane Coles (c), Toby Smith. Replacements: Asafo Aumua, Fraser Armstrong, Ben May/Alex Fidow, Kane Le’aupepe, Du’Plessis Kirifi, Richard Judd/Finlay Christie, James Marshall, Salesi Rayasi.

Vodacom Bulls: Warrick Gelant, Cornal Hendricks, Jesse Kriel, Johnny Kotze, Rosko Specman, Handre Pollard (c), Andre Warner, Duane Vermeulen, Hanro Liebenberg, Marco van Staden, RG Snyman, Jason Jenkins, Trevor Nyakane, Jaco Visagie, Lizo Gqoboka. Replacements: Johan Grobbelaar, Simphiwe Matanzima, Wiehahn Herbst, Jannes Kirsten, Ruan Steenkamp, Ivan van Zyl, Manie Libbok, Divan Rossouw.

Referee: Nic Berry (AUS)

Prediction: Hurricanes by 10

Brumbies v Cell C Sharks (Canberra, Saturday 11.45)

The team news is that the Sharks have made just one change to the starting side that narrowly pipped the Stormers, with the now recovered Curwin Bosch returning for the now injured Aphelele Fassi at fullback. The only other change to the match 23 is the return of Juan Schoeman to the reserve bench.

The Brumbies have Wallabies Henry Speight and Pete Samu back, as well as Tom Cusack and Toni Pulu. The only player missing from what you would have envisaged as their strongest team at the start of the season is in fact David Pocock, who was forced to retire from Super Rugby a few weeks back with a recurring calf injury. It is a good position for the hosts to be in and they have run into impressive form since knocking over the Stormers in Cape Town during the Easter Weekend.

The one thing, one of the few things, in the Sharks’ favour in this game is that until the last second of their final league game against the Stormers in Cape Town it didn’t look like they would make this stage of the competition at all. So in that sense they may feel they have nothing to lose. They did have a few other things in their favour this week, such as not having to fly quite as far as they would have had to if they went to New Zealand or Argentina, the franchise has won play-off games in Australia before, and they’ve also been based for much of the week in Coogee, where they spent the week before they beat the Waratahs.

Realistically though the Sharks’ chance of victory are minimal. They weren’t good against the Stormers (both teams were poor), neither were they good the week before that in Argentina, and they miss their two heavyweight enforcers, Ruan Botha and Jean-Luc du Preez. More particularly, they’ve made this trip just a week after flying back from Argentina. If travel is going to impact on any team, surely it will impact on this Sharks team.

Teams

Brumbies: Tom Banks, Henry Speight, Tevita Kuridrani, Irae Simone, Toni Pulu, Christian Lealiifano (c), Joe Powell, Pete Samu, Tom Cusack, Rob Valetini, Sam Carter, Rory Arnold, Scott Sio, Folau Faingaa, Allan Alaalatoa. Replacements: Connal McInnerney, James Slipper, Les Makin, Darcy Swain, Lachy McCaffrey, Jahrome Brown, Matt Lucas, Tom Wright.

Cell C Sharks team: Curwin Bosch, Sbu Nkosi, Lukhanyo Am, Andre Esterhuizen, Makazole Mapimpi, Robert du Preez, Louis Schreuder (captain), Daniel du Preez, Tyler Paul, Jacques Vermeulen, Hyron Andrews, Ruben van Heerden, Coenie Oosthuizen, Kerron van Vuuren, Mzamo Majola. Replacements: Cullen Collopy, Juan Schoeman, Thomas du Toit, Gideon Koegelenberg, Luke Stringer, Cameron Wright, Jeremy Ward, Rhyno Smith.

Referee: Mike Frazer (New Zealand).

Prediction: Brumbies by 15