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The end of the survival course for some

rugby13 June 2019 15:17| © Cycle Lab
By:JJ Harmse
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Stormers © Gallo Images

They all want to proceed further but the South African teams going all out to earn themselves a place in the playoff phase of Vodacom Super Rugby would be justified for wondering if they really want the prize that is on offer.

All the teams with the exception of the Vodacom Bulls, who welcome some key players back from injury and rest for their final round derby against the Emirates Lions, are struggling with injury lists that would do justice to a survival course. Which of course is what Super Rugby is.

The Lions are the only team yet to be confirmed at the time of writing but what we do know is that they will be without the talismanic Kwagga Smith for their final game.

Indeed, his Super Rugby season is over regardless of whether the Lions play again in this competition, thus denting any prospect of them getting to the tournament decider should they get past the Bulls in Pretoria and clinch their spot in the playoffs for the fourth consecutive year.

That sounds like some achievement if they do manage it but the reality is that it would not be a comparable achievement to 2016, 2017 and 2018 in the sense that this time they won't be doing it as conference winners.

Instead of hosting a lower ranked finisher at Emirates Airlines Park in their first playoff game, this time they are condemned to travel.

A week or two ago it was suggested they may be the best South African hope, a suggestion that was purely based around the fact that unlike the Bulls and the Sharks they have not just returned from a taxing overseas trip.

So they will be fresher if they do win the booby prize that is on offer for them beating the Bulls and advance to the knockouts.

But it is harder now than it was then to see them going any further, particularly not without Smith, who seemed almost single-handedly responsible for the temporary reappearance of their missing mojo in the game against the Stormers.

They were pretty abject at home against the Hurricanes last week and while that is no sure indication they will also be poor against the Bulls, it wasn't a performance that inspired confidence.

FAREWELL WEEKEND

It would be the height of folly to bet your house on a Bulls win, even at Loftus, as it has been such a topsy turvy season, but nonetheless the hosts must start as strong favourites.

Ditto for the Stormers against the Cell C Sharks, though in this case it is more the fact that the Stormers are playing at home that gives them the edge than any particular advantage on the team sheet.

The Sharks have been impacted by injury, but the Stormers have been even more ravaged, with their injury list reading like a who's who of South African rugby big names currently.

Will the absence of Curwin Bosch, Ruan Botha and Jean-Luc du Preez be more telling for the Sharks than the Stormers playing without Eben Etzebeth, Siya Kolisi and Pieter-Steph du Toit, not to mention now also Herschel Jantjies?

It's hard to say for the Stormers' injury problems don't stop there - they are also without two thirds of the back three that did duty for most of the season, including the precociously talented Damian Willemse. Willemse and Bosch cancel each other out.

But apart from noting that the Sharks have a more potent looking outside back division there is little to choose between the sides on paper and if you back the Stormers it is because they are playing at home and their recent performances at Newlands have been mostly good.

The prospect of it being a farewell weekend for several players and at least one coach - we already know Robbie Fleck won't be at the Stormers helm next year, and it is unlikely Robert du Preez will be back for the Sharks either - adds some emotion to the final round of fixtures.

That though only makes the games less easy to call as history reflects that in South African domestic and franchise rugby it is the team that usually has more emotional reason to win that ends up losing.

The two winning teams will advance to the playoffs, the two losers will stay at home. It’s unlikely the winners, who face probable trips to Christchurch and Buenos Aires, although Canberra is also a possibility, will survive beyond another week.

But the act there are the bragging rights that come with making it into the next round up for grabs does make for an exciting end to the season. Perhaps more exciting for South Africans than what will come after this.

WEEKEND PREVIEWS AND PREDICTIONS

SOUTH AFRICAN CONFERENCE

Jaguares v Sunwolves (Beunos Aires, Saturday 12:10am)

If you feel like getting up at the ridiculously early time of 10 minutes past midnight, or if you want to go to bed late, you should see the Jaguares end their season with a fairly comfortable win over a Sunwolves team that raised it's game against the Stormers last round but is unlikely to do it two weeks in a row.

Prediction: Jaguares by 20

DHL Stormers v Cell C Sharks (Cape Town, Saturday 3:05pm)

The Stormers have Damian de Allende and Seabelo Senatla added to the team that laboured a bit against the Sunwolves. Craig Barry makes way for Senatla and De Allende returns for Dan Kriel, who drops to the bench.

Herschel Jantjies is out, and make no mistake that is a big loss, but at least this week there are more players coming back than heading out.

The Sharks though have been dealt a double blow with the injuries to Curwin Bosch and Ruan Botha, and you can make that a triple blow if you factor in Jean-Luc du Preez, who hasn't recovered in time from the injury that sidelined him from the Jaguares game.

The Sharks do have the backs to trouble the Stormers, who have some relatively new faces, but they would be more likely to do so were Bosch at pivot and were the team really coached in a way that would see them maximise those strengths.

Prediction: Stormers to win by 7

Vodacom Bulls v Emirates Lions (Pretoria, Saturday 5:15pm)

The Lions are missing Kwagga Smith, whereas the Bulls welcome back Warrick Gelant, Rosco Speckman and the considerably influential Duane Vermeulen.

The two draws in New Zealand should have imbued the Bulls with the confidence to finish off the job of qualifying for the playoffs, though it won't be in the prime position that looked likely when they started the season with a flourish in their derby matches against the Stormers (home), Lions (away) and Sharks (home).

Prediction: Bulls by 8

AUSTRALASIAN CONFERENCES

Highlanders v Waratahs (Dunedin, Friday 9:35am)

Prediction: Highlanders to scrape it

Rebels v Chiefs (Melbourne, Friday 11:45am)

Prediction: Chiefs by 7

Hurricanes v Blues (Wellington, Saturday 9:35am)

Prediction: Hurricanes by 10

Brumbies v Reds (Canberra, Saturday 11:45am)

Prediction: Brumbies by 10

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