Crucial for Sharks to even the psychology

It isn’t just the matter of the Cell C Sharks needing to win in Buenos Aires on Saturday to keep their own Vodacom Super Rugby hopes alive, there are also good reasons for the country as a whole to be hoping the Durbanites pull it through.

Regardless of what happens in what is still a wide-open race for the also-ran places that in this competition bizarrely still gives you a chance to win the main prize, there is a good chance that one of the South African teams will be heading to Buenos Aires for the quarterfinal. Indeed, if the Sharks get it right on Saturday, they might well be returning to Argentina in two weeks time themselves.

Actually, that makes you realise just what a long shot it is for a South African team to get beyond the quarterfinal stage this year. The Sharks face a long journey regardless of whether they play the Jaguares in the first playoff game. The alternative is a trip to New Zealand. Either way, there'd be a lot of travelling to look forward to, and not long after the trip to Buenos Aires.

Everyone knows how difficult going to New Zealand or even Australia is for a playoff game, but the Jaguares over the past few months have built themselves into a force that is as formidable. In retrospect, the Stormers did quite well to just lose by a couple of points when they went to Argentina ahead of what was a successful Jaguares tour of Australasia (three wins in four).

There are a few people complaining about the Jaguares’ participation in Super Rugby on the basis that they are essentially an international squad, but what is forgotten is that until this year the Jaguares struggled to make the playoffs, let alone win the conference.

They are clearly doing something right now that they weren’t before, and there may be some lessons for South African coaches in the way they use their squad system to build depth. They haven’t played their top players off their feet, and while they started slowly initially, once the fringe players gained experience they started flying as a group.

In terms of South African opposition, the Jaguares have broken a lot of ground this year, with the win in Pretoria that broke their highveld drought being followed by a landslide victory over the Sharks in Durban the following week. It was as if, now that they had broken the spell they had set themselves free.

This is why it is so important from a South African viewpoint for the Sharks to do what they did in Buenos Aires two years ago by scoring the win that might just dent a bit of their confidence ahead of the quarterfinal stage.

The Emirates Lions face a similar mission when they face the Hurricanes in the key game to take place on South African soil this weekend. As it stands, they would head to Hurricanes for their quarterfinal, so a victory at Emirates Airlines Park will achieve two objectives.

Perhaps even more important for them though is the probability that they are the one South African team who can feel almost certain of a playoff place if they do win. A team with a tally of 39 or 40 points will be difficult to keep out of the top eight as it stands.

Much though does depend on the results of other games. The Bulls, for instance, will take a massive step towards qualification themselves if they win in Dunedin on Friday. The Stormers will be out of the race if they drop points against the Sunwolves, but conversely, a win with a bonus point could propel them ahead of the Lions should the Lions lose without picking up a bonus point.

It all makes for another absorbing weekend of Super Rugby viewing, with the impact of the games in the Australasian conference on the race for top eight positions on the combined log adding relevance for supporters of teams in the South African conference.

The New Zealand conference is wrapped up but the Australian one is still open. If the Brumbies lose what now looks an appetising derby against a Waratahs team that appears to be regaining confidence, and the Rebels win against the Crusaders, then it will be all Down Under. That though is unlikely to happen, particularly as the Rebels are travelling to Christchurch.

Weekend fixtures

South African Conference

Highlanders v Vodacom Bulls (Dunedin, Friday 09.35)

Rosko Specman has flown home but the Bulls have been boosted by the return of Handre Pollard. The decision to bring the Springbok flyhalf back from South Africa shows just how determined the Bulls are to ensure that next week’s final league fixture against the Lions has a playoff spot on the line. The Bulls were good in parts against the Blues. Perhaps Pollard’s game management will make the needed difference this week.

Prediction: Highlanders by 7

Emirates Lions v Hurricanes (Johannesburg, Saturday 15.05)

They may have lost to the Sharks the week before last, but the Lions do look like they are regaining some of their old potency and confidence. That defeat to the Sharks needs to be seen in the context of the two intercept tries that made all the difference and some wasted opportunities in the last hour of that game where the Lions were pretty dominant. The Johannesburg team was excellent in destroying the Stormers and will go into this game with a lot of confidence. At the same time, the Hurricanes win in Durban might have made them more vulnerableble, for the trend in the past has been for them to target one game on tour and then blip in the other. A good example was 2016, when the Hurricanes put 50 points past the Lions in Johannesburg and were then handed a subsequent big defeat by the Sharks in Durban seven days later.

Prediction: Lions to scrape it

DHL Stormers v Sunwolves (Cape Town, Saturday 17.15)

This is being written before the announcement of the Stormers team and given all the injuries that are playing havoc with the Cape franchise’s intentions, who knows what it will look like. Assuming that there are at least some top players present and the side hasn’t lost any more players during the week, we should expect the Stormers to score the win, preferably with a bonus point, that will put a playoff place on the line when they host the Sharks in their final league fixture.

Prediction: Stormers v 17

Jaguares v Cell C Sharks (Buenos Aires, Saturday 21.40)

Can you turn around a 50-point defeat in a matter of two months, and do it when you have travelled to the home of the team that inflicted that beating? It seems unlikely, but if any team can produce that sort of freak turn-around then it is probably the Sharks, who tend to be better away from home than they are at Jonsson Kings Park. You’d assume though that there would be an element of complacency required from the Jaguares on their home ground, and that is unlikely given what is on the line for them. Victory in this game makes the conference win a certainty.

Prediction: Jaguares by 10

Australasian Conferences

Reds v Blues (Brisbane, Friday 11.45)

Prediction: Reds to win by 7

Crusaders v Rebels (Christchurch, Saturday 09.35)

Prediction: Crusaders to win by 15

Waratahs v Brumbies (Sydney, Saturday 11.45)

Prediction: Brumbies by less than 7.