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Nuts and bolts of intense wild card race

rugby05 June 2019 05:42| © Cycle Lab
By:JJ Harmse
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Ashlon Davids against Hurricanes © Gallo Images

The conference system in operation for Vodacom Super Rugby is certainly unfair on some and is also too convoluted, but one thing the format is delivering this year is sustained interest into the final fortnight for supporters of a wide cross-section of teams.

Whereas under the old format, where just the top four teams advanced straight to semifinals, most teams would have run their race by now, there are currently as many as 13 teams still in contention for play-off places.

Okay, the Blues, who are in 13th position with 28 points, would have to do something special, but with five points separating them from the eighth placed Sharks, they are theoretically in with a chance of making it into the quarterfinal round.

Indeed, their fellow New Zealand team, the Chiefs, might have an even tougher task. Although the Chiefs are currently ninth, two points behind the Sharks and one ahead of the 10th placed Waratahs and Stormers, who both have 30 points, they have a bye this coming weekend. Which means they have only one match remaining and the maximum number of points they can manage is 36.

That’s unlikely to be enough to secure wild card qualification, but what adds intrigue to the final two rounds is the fact that so many of the teams positioned five to 13 are set to play each other. They are therefore going to cancel each other out and that could ensure that the team that qualifies in position 8 might well be around that 36 point mark.

REBELS CAN STILL WIN THE AUSTRALIAN CONFERENCE

The Chiefs’ last game is an away clash with the Rebels, who are currently wedged between the Emirates Lions and the Vodacom Bulls in sixth position. The Rebels can still theoretically win the Australian conference as they are within five points of the Brumbies, who travel to the Waratahs this week.

But the Rebels have to go to Christchurch this week to face what should be a Crusaders team in a mean mood after what happened to them last week. So realistically, like the South African conference, where the Jaguares are virtually assured of top spot, the Australian conference race looks over.

After impressing so much in the early part of the season, the Rebels are now in real danger of falling out of the top eight.

From a South African viewpoint, the Lions look one win away from being sure of a play-off place. They face the Hurricanes in Johannesburg this week before travelling to Pretoria for their final fixture. For 39 or 40 points should be enough.

As it stands, the Lions’ clash with the Hurricanes this weekend is a dress rehearsal for a return clash between the two teams in the quarterfinal round (No 4 plays No 5). The only difference being that the play-off game will be played in Wellington, not Johannesburg. Of course, the Lions will have to play well to hold onto fifth, but they do look like they’ve recovered their mojo.

A WIN FOR THE BULLS WILL PUT THEM WITHIN TOUCHING DISTANCE OF QUALIFICATION

The Bulls are still challenging for fifth place too, and everything will hinge for them on how they go in the final tour match against the Highlanders at the weekend. If they win, they will be very close to qualification, and may then just need to pick up a bonus point against the Lions in that final game to make it.

The Sharks face a similar outlook. Victory over the Jaguares in Buenos Aires in their penultimate fixture will put them in a strong position in the race for wild card qualification. But if they lose, which they are expected to do, they are likely to start the final round out of the placings, as the Stormers should be expected to win at home against the Sunwolves, and probably pick up a try scoring bonus point too.

Given who is playing who in these remaining weeks, the Stormers would then be facing a situation where a win against the Sharks in the final game at Newlands will be enough for them to get through.

The Waratahs and Highlanders are hovering close enough to usurp them if they don’t pick up that bonus point, but there is a caveat - they play each other in the last week so one of the two teams will be cancelled out.

Adding to the intrigue going into this week’s games is the points for and against differential that will determine which team advances, or ends higher on the log, should there be a tie. For instance, there are just four points separating the Lions and Stormers in the differential, with the Lions on -36 and the Stormers on -32, but that will be enough for the Stormers to leapfrog the Lions this week if they get a full house against the Sunwolves and the Hurricanes do to the Lions what they did to the Sharks.

ALL FOUR SOUTH AFRICAN TEAMS COULD POTENTIALLY MAKE THE PLAY-OFFS

Talking of the Hurricanes, there is one other thing that is noticeable if you look at the overall log - the Jaguares are now very close to bringing some much needed integrity to the overall log by overtaking the Hurricanes in terms of log points. There are three points separating the teams at present - the Hurricanes have 44 points and the Jaguares 41 - so if the Hurricanes lose at the weekend and the Jaguares win we will for once see the log positions of the top two properly reflecting the order of strength.

If the Bulls somehow beat the Highlanders and the Sharks do the same to the Jaguares in their games overseas, we could also theoretically see all four South African teams make it into the play-offs, albeit they will all be condemned to travel overseas to do it.

THE NUTS AND BOLTS OF THE RACE FOR WILD CARD QUALIFICATION

Teams in contention for wild card qualification for Super Rugby Finals Series:

Position 5: Emirates Lions 35 points (2 to play)
Position 6: Melbourne Rebels 34 points (2 to play)
Position 7: Vodacom Bulls 34 points (2 to play)
Position 8: Cell C Sharks 33 points (2 to play)
Position 9: Chiefs 31 points (1 to play)
Position 10: Waratahs 30 points (2 to play)
Position 11: Stormers 30 points (2 to play)
Position 12: Highlanders 29 points (2 to play)
Position 13: Blues 28 points (2 to play)

Remaining fixtures

Round 17

Highlanders v Bulls
Reds v Blues
Crusaders v Rebels
Waratahs v Brumbies
Lions v Hurricanes
Stormers v Sunwolves
Jaguares v Sharks
Chiefs bye

Round 18

Highlanders v Waratahs
Rebels v Chiefs
Jaguares v Sunwolves
Hurricanes v Blues
Brumbies v Reds
Stormers v Sharks
Bulls v Lions
Crusaders bye

Finals series schedule

Quarterfinals
Q1 v Q8
Q2 v Q7
Q3 v Q 6
Q4 v Q5

Semifinals
Winner Q1 v Winner Q4
Winner Q2 v Winner Q3

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