Stretched to breaking point

An unpredictable Vodacom Super Rugby season becomes even more unpredictable from this weekend as the South African teams head into uncharted territory.

The 16th round of Super Rugby would in the past have taken after the June international break that has been done away with this year because of the World Cup and which will be consigned to history going forward because of the change of the structure of the season from next year.

Of course it wasn’t much of a break for the international players who had to play in the June internationals, but even for them there was a change of environment for a few weeks to freshen them up for the resumption of Super Rugby and in the most recent seasons there has been a week’s break before the big international matches start.

All the South African teams that are still bunched close together in the conference have faced a string of physical matches recently. Yes, the South African derbies may be the most physical, but the matches against the top Kiwi sides are pretty physical too. Just ask the Stormers, who have found great form but are now in danger of hitting a patch where they find they are running on empty.

We don’t know the Stormers team yet and the good news this week was that the injuries that made Siya Kolisi and Pieter-Steph du Toit doubtful at the start of it aren’t serious. Stormers coach Robbie Fleck must be facing a difficult dilemma now though as he heads to Johannesburg for what is now a real deal knock-out fixture against the Lions.

He does have one advantage over the other teams in that his run-in from here isn’t quite as tough if you consider that the Sunwolves, who visit Newlands next week for the penultimate league fixture, appear to be imploding. There is a chance then for Fleck to rest some of his big name players.

But at the same time it wouldn’t be surprising if there is a question mark over whether he should play the likes of Kolisi and Du Toit against the Lions even if they are fit enough to take the field. It wouldn’t do the Stormers or the country any good if breaking point was stretched to broken point.

The Stormers can’t afford any more injuries if they want to remain competitive and while they travel to Emirates Airlines Park with their best chance of returning home with a victory since the 2014 season, you have to ask whether they can lift it for a third week in a row given how much they put into their matches against Crusaders and Highlanders.

The Lions had a tough derby last week against the Sharks so it isn’t as if they haven’t also been nursing bruised bodies. The Johannesburg fixture might be decided by which team is better negotiating the survival course that this incredibly tough competition has become.

It’s no different in Durban, where the Sharks at least had a bye the week before their clash with the Lions. But let’s not forget the huge defensive effort they put in last week. You don’t put in the mountain of tackles the Sharks had to against the Lions’ carrying in that second half without it having a physical impact.

The Hurricanes rested last week following their unexpected home defeat to the Jaguares, so they have come to Durban feeling both freshened up and hungry. That’s a dangerous mix, and add to that the fact that their coach John Plumtree must also surely feel he has a point to prove at a venue that he knows so well and was so long for him home both during his playing and coaching career.

The Bulls have flown beneath the radar a bit since their defeat to the Brumbies that leaves them needing to win two games in New Zealand to maintain their challenge. The outlook for them is the same as all the other South African teams - they have to keep winning if they want to make the play-offs, the knock-outs have already arrived.

And if you consider that if you make the knock-out phase proper and have designs on winning the competition you still have three games to play, it does seem like some teams may be treading very close to the point where breaking point does become broken point.

What is interesting this week is that the prospect of the Jaguares winning the conference, which is now a strong one, has made the matches in the Australasian conference far more relevant from a local perspective. The race for wild card spots, meaning positions No 4 through to No 8 on the final overall log, is well and truly on, and with that race as congested as the one in the local conference, there aren’t many games that don’t have the potential to impact on which teams will be joining Crusaders in the last eight.

WEEKEND FIXTURES – SOUTH AFRICAN CONFERENCE

Blues v Vodacom Bulls (Auckland, Friday 09.35)

The Bulls might consider they are in a good position now as some of the pressure must surely have been released by the diminishing burden of expectation. Last week’s clash with the Brumbies always shaped up as their second of two crunch games on tour, the opener against the Rebels being the other, because of the players that were leaving the group before the crossing of the Tasman Sea. But there is still talent in the Bulls group and like the Stormers when they faced the Crusaders a few weeks ago, and for that matter the Sharks in Christchurch before that, this match might bring positive pressure rather than negative pressure. Realistically though it is hard to see anything other than a Blues win.

Prediction: Blues by 10

Reds v Jaguares (Brisbane, Saturday 11.45)

The South African teams will all be hoping for a Jaguares defeat. We shouldn’t expect it, for they have now picked up momentum, but the Reds are a young team with a lot of hidden potential. Don’t write them off completely.

Prediction: Jaguares by 9

Cell C Sharks v Hurricanes (Durban, Saturday 15.05)

This game is hard to predict. You’d think the Sharks would win the forward battle and thus get some momentum, perhaps pin the Hurricanes in their own territory. But the Hurricanes aren’t the second best team in the competition in terms of accumulated log points for nothing. Their recent loss to the Hurricanes might have been good for the Hurricanes. The last time they visited Durban they were too complacent and they lost. They shouldn’t be this time.

Prediction: Hurricanes to scrape a narrow win

Emirates Lions v DHL Stormers (Johannesburg, Saturday 17.15)

Phew, this is probably the most unpredictable game of the weekend. Based on their two most recent performances the Stormers have a great chance of breaking their Johannesburg hoodoo, but the possible physical impact of those efforts does throw a curve ball in their direction. Their coach was already admitting after last week’s game that although they were on top of the Highlanders, there were times when they looked tired. You can’t be tired against the Lions, particularly not at altitude. It’s why they may just have the edge in this one.

Prediction: Lions to scrape it.

WEEKEND FIXTURES – AUSTRALASIAN CONFERENCE

Rebels v Waratahs (Melbourne, Friday 11.45)

Prediction: Rebels by 7

Sunwolves v Brumbies (Tokyo, Saturday 07.15)

Prediction: Brumbies by 15