Great weekend for SA but there’s a catch

It was a positive weekend for South African rugby in Vodacom Super Rugby yet also a round that went some way towards confirming the Jaguares as the favourites to win the local conference.

> > > ALL THE HIGHLIGHTS from the weekend's Super Rugby games . . .

After their narrow defeat in the first game of the tour the question asked of the Argentine side was answered in Wellington at the start of the weekend. They have it within their capabilities to pick up the away form that will make them dangerous. And on the evidence of a win that was actually even more emphatic than the scoreline would suggest - the Hurricanes scored a last gasp consolation try - they should be favoured to win the two games in Australia that await them.

The Jaguares are in Sydney this week to play the Waratahs and then they finish off against the Reds. The good news is that one South African team does have it in their hands to halt the Jaguares’ progress. For the Sharks are in Buenos Aires on 8 June. But the Jaguares put more than 50 past the Sharks in Durban recently so don’t bet on a Sharks win.

The Jaguares then finish off at home against the Sunwolves and will be expected to win that. The reason the Jaguares look like favourites is because that run in looks a tad easier than that faced by the Vodacom Bulls, who are currently level on them on log points at the top of the conference.

The Bulls were brilliant in burying the Rebels in Melbourne on Friday and in so doing ending an Australasian drought that extends back three years. But they will have to be as brilliant this week against a rested Brumbies team that has shown good form ever since they went to Cape Town and shocked the Stormers on the Easter Weekend.

STAR PLAYERS MISSING FROM NEW ZEALAND LEG

Then they head to New Zealand for two matches that they will have to play without star players Duane Vermeulen and Handre Pollard, who are both returning to South Africa after this as per the Springbok resting protocols. The Bulls finish off in Pretoria against an Emirates Lions team that on the evidence of the last two weeks is starting to regroup.?The Lions have managed to get themselves back into the conference race and are now just two points behind the joint leaders. For them the next two games, both of them derbies, will be crucial to determining whether they can retain their conference trophy. They play the Cell C Sharks, who thrashed them in Joburg in the first round, in Durban at the weekend and then host the DHL Stormers.

The Stormers are still last in the conference but that trip to Emirates Airlines Park is their only away game in their remaining four. Their draw against the Crusaders will have given them confidence and they should fancy their chances of winning home games against the Highlanders this week and then the Sunwolves and the Sharks in the last two weeks. That final game in Cape Town is one of the reasons the Sharks probably shouldn’t be favoured. They are just two points behind the Lions, three behind the leaders and three ahead of the Stormers, but they do face a tough finish.

The host the Hurricanes, who will be in a determined mood after the Jaguares defeat, after the Lions game, and then they travel to Argentina and Cape Town. It’s in their hands if they beat the Jaguares but that’s a tough ask and you fancy to pip the Jaguares now they have to win all their remaining games.

AN INTRIGUING END TO LEAGUE PHASE

You’d say the same of the Stormers though so it does make for an intriguing end to the season. Crusaders captain Sam Whitelock said as much after his team’s draw to the Stormers on Saturday night.

“It is great for the spectators to have such a tight race. The South African conference looks really interesting with every week there being potential for a big change. A single result can make all the difference,” said the All Black lock.

He’s right about that. Until the Newlands game it looked like the weekend was going to be the moving one that everyone was waiting for. But those two points picked up by Siya Kolisi’s men for the draw has kept them in the hunt as there are only six points still separating top from bottom. As Crusaders coach Scott Robertson put it, the Stormers will be hard to stop at home, so it could come down to whether they can win in Johannesburg and also the Jaguares dropping games.

That last point is the problem for the South African teams. The Jaguares have gathered impressive momentum over the last month and are now playing like the international team that they are. They have a functioning halfback combination, something they stumbled on in their rather fortunate come from behind win over the Bulls at Loftus and which thrived in the big win over the Sharks the next weekend.

EVERYONE CAN LOOK BACK AT WHAT IFS

That late defeat is something the Bulls should be kicking themselves for. There was good reason why they were the favourites to win the conference in the early weeks. The big defeats to New Zealand teams have changed that outlook somewhat, and they face an uphill battle now as winning in New Zealand will be a tough ask.

But against the Rebels, who ironically ended up losing all their four games against South African opposition this season, they showed what they are capable of. And had it not been for their surrendering of the initiative against the Jaguares at Loftus, they would be more comfortably ahead now.

Having said that, all teams have a what if or might have been caveat built in when they look back at their seasons so far. The Lions were unlucky to lose to the Stormers in round two, the Bulls were fortunate to beat the Sharks with a late penalty in Durban. How did the Stormers manage to lose by two points when completely dominating the Brumbies?

That’s sport though and that’s what makes it interesting. The Stormers spoke about the bounce of the ball and needing a bit of luck, and maybe they did get that with the forward pass call against the Crusaders.

But then they also had the bounce again go against them. Had that try stood the Stormers would have been left to lament the awkward bounce that eluded JJ Engelbrecht, who appeared to have the kick well covered in the corner, and went straight into Sevu Reece’s hands. Had the Stormers lost to that it would have been typical of the bad luck they have had this season.

On another day the ball would also have sat up for Damian Willemse off that last move before the penalty kick and the Stormers would have won rather than just taking home a share of the spoils.

STORMERS DESERVED SHARE OF SPOILS

The bottom line is that these things happen in rugby, it’s a swings and roundabouts scenario, and few would deny that the Stormers deserved immense credit for the way they played.

Not many gave the Stormers a chance of competing but for long periods of the game they did more than that. They dominated the first quarter and the last quarter, the Crusaders were the stronger team in between. On a day when the Crusaders weren’t bad either, it was an impressive performance.

The Stormers’ defence was magnificent, and the high perch of the Newlands press box is the ideal place to watch the intriguing chess game that is the manipulation of opposition attacking options and defensive systems.

The Stormers were on point with most of their tactics, and have in fact been good tactically most of the season. Maybe they should have been been less forward orientated against the Hurricanes and more direct against the Blues, but ultimately their loss to Bulls in the opening round was their only real blow-out thus far this season. And yet they still foot the conference!

That can change if they replicate their performance against the Crusaders. Yes, the Crusaders botched some of their option taking at times, but that was Stormers pressure. There was also some desperate scrambling defence from the Stormers. But it was the Crusaders they were playing against, the top team in the competition by some distance, a team that were up for the game and which, unlike in their other draw with a South African team in Christchurch two weeks ago, this time had game drivers Richie Mo’unga and Ryan Crotty back in tow in the 10/12 axis.

The Stormers will have been pleased with the way they limited their influence with their pressure defence. But they’d also agree they didn’t completely negate the threat. Mo’unga in particular is that good, and the Crusaders would probably readily agree they would have lost the game had he not been present.

THE MIGHTY PIETER-STEPH

The Stormers would have lost were it not for the mighty efforts of Pieter-Steph du Toit, who has returned from a brief injury lay-off looking reinvigorated. Not that he wasn’t already invigorated. Just look at his stats and you know that in their blindside flank the Stormers have one of modern rugby’s great players.?Springbok coach Rassie Erasmus should also have been pleased with the contribution of his captain, Siya Kolisi. The flank was on the field for the whole game, was composed with his leadership and was a busy presence. He says he has forgotten the try he scored against the Crusaders in the 2013 game at Newlands, but he won’t forget the one he scored in this game in a hurry.

THE AS MIGHTY DUANE

If the Stormers have a world class player in Du Toit, so do the Bulls in Duane Vermeulen. The No 8 was outstanding in defeat to the Crusaders at Loftus the previous week, making something like five steals and just generally being the lone wolf in a losing cause, and he retained that form against the Rebels. He kept the Bulls ship steady when it might have wobbled.

Handre Pollard, after his wobble against the Crusaders, was also back to his reliable best in Melbourne. The way that pair stood out in the win is one of the reasons we might despair over their chances of maintaining momentum once they are missing during the New Zealand leg.

Full marks to the Bulls though, they were excellent and started the ball rolling on a weekend that was a great one for South African rugby regardless of the ominous message sounded by the Jaguares.

WHEN IS MARX GOING TO REST?

The value of having experienced players who have been successful before and part of successful teams was also underlined in Johannesburg, where Kwagga Smith and Malcolm Marx were the players that the others followed. A question though - when is Marx going to rest again? He did fly home early from New Zealand but is due to sit out another couple of games. That could have an impact on the Lions’ remaining game for he is that influential.

INTERESTING STATS RELATING TO CRUSADERS GAMES

Talking about influential, the Crusaders have now concluded their battles with South African teams in the league phase of competition. They ended up winning two and drawing two, which might be a much better haul from a local viewpoint than would have been anticipated.

It is interesting to note though that in the two draws the Crusaders accumulated six tries against one. Their try scoring record against South African teams from the season is 17 against three. It prompted their coach to remark after the Newlands game that what the Stormers in particular, but perhaps South African teams in general, need to get right is their try scoring.

As it turns out, Stormers coach Robbie Fleck’s pre-game comment that his team needed to score more tries than the Crusaders if they wanted to win was spot on. His team didn’t win. But in both games - the Sharks and Stormers ones being the reference - which ended up in draws the defence of the South African sides was outstanding and it appeared to trouble the Crusaders. That at least is something to take from it. Get the other aspect right and the Crusaders may just be beatable.

Weekend Results

Hurricanes 20 Jaguares 28

Rebels 17 Vodacom Bulls 32

Blues 23 Chiefs 8

Reds 32 Waratahs 40

Emirates Lions 38 Highlanders 29

DHL Stormers 19 Crusaders 19