Trying to predict, but our crystal bull is looking a little stormy

Trying to predict the outcome of a South African derby in Vodacom Super Rugby has always been a fool’s errand, but this year – with a conference tighter than a chain-smoker’s lungs – the task is just plain bonkers.

You needed a veritable Siener van Rensburg to predict that the Bulls would wipe the floor with the Stormers in the opening round of 2019. You’d then have needed Oom Siener to consume a generous amount of opium before he could foresee that those same Stormers would go on to beat the almost untouchable Lions the very next week.

By the time it came to publicly announce what the Capetonians will do in Durban in week three, Mr Van Rensburg would have had himself certified and locked up. And who can blame him?

Ours is a conference lifted straight out of the pages of a Looney Tunes cartoon.

There are no pointers when it comes to games between SA sides this year. The bookies’ favourites have lost more than they’ve won, and so did the home sides. The only thing constant is that the Bulls have kept on upsetting, but for me having written this, that trend will in all probability now also come crashing down.

Nobody knows what will happen at Newlands on Saturday when the Stormers get a chance to avenge their first-round humiliation at the hands of their arch-enemies. Nobody knows, and those that think they know should – for their own benefit - have their assets frozen until at least next Monday.

But that doesn’t mean the game shouldn’t still be previewed in writing. Unike Oom Siener, rugby scribes are forced to make themselves look silly every single week. This will be another of those occasions.

For no reason other than the fact that we don’t want to talk about last week’s results, the SuperWrap will have its first ever gaze into a crystal ball.

The first thing that comes to mind is the sport’s biggest cliché: the game will be won upfront. If we can somehow establish who will have the upperhand in the physical exchanges, maybe that will help us decide.

In the scrums we’ll see the tournament’s surprise package of Lizo Gcoboka and Trevor Nyakane take on the highly-rated Steven Kitshoff and Frans Malherbe in an all-Springbok affair.

One is tempted to favour the Bulls is this all-important area of the game, if only because the Stormers found themselves in trouble there at times in their loss against the Brumbies last week. It wasn’t the first time it happened this season either.

The problem is that New Zealander Glen Jackson has been appointed to officiate the match. The former 60-cap Chiefs player likes to remind people that he used to play flyhalf by astonishing viewers with his frequently aberrant calls whenever two front rows bang into each other in front of his whistle.

It goes without saying that poor refereeing has a way of negating any advantage a stronger scrum may have had, so as far as this facet of the game goes, the crystal ball remains murky.

When it comes to lineouts the Stormers would feel a whole lot better this week with the return of their two first-choice second-rowers Eben Etzebeth and JD Schickerling. When this pair is on song they are among the most potent lock pairings in the competition, but how much rust would they have gathered in their lengthy injury-enforced time on the sidelines?

The Bulls would have hoped that Springbok lock Jason Jenkins made it through the week’s training unscathed so that he could be included next to Loftus’ new darling RG Snyman, but unfortunately that didn’t happen. In his place they named the energetic Jannes Kirsten instead. Snyman also came off a recent injury layoff but at least had a rather impressive game against the Reds in the bag since leaving rehab.

Four quality locks and two worried team doctors will make the catfight for the lineout throw quite entertaining, but it also makes attempts to predict there all but futile.

So where will the two teams get the ball from if we know nothing about the tight phases? Let’s have a look at the breakdowns.

The Bulls were fortunate enough to get their livewire openside Marco van Staden back onto the field two weeks ago. They were also able to back that up with the inclusion of the almost-forgotten Roelof Smit on the bench. Against the Reds it made a huge difference in terms of the team’s overall work-rate, but especially their effectiveness over the ball.

The issue the Bulls’ thieves will have on Saturday, however, is that they will be up against a team that just doesn’t cough up possession on the ground. With an attacking ruck success rate of 97%, the Stormers are ranked No 1 in the entire competition when it comes to recycling their own ball.

What will happen when world-class poachers come up against the world’s best guardians of a nest? Unstoppable force v immovable object? Your guess is as good as mine, and we’re both probably wrong.

There is a perception this year that the Bulls are playing an attractive, attacking brand of rugby while the Stormers are struggling to finish any opportunities that come their way. The statistics doesn’t bear that out, though.

The Bulls score an average of 2.3 tries per match while the Stormers are at a flat 2.0. That leaves them ranked 14th and 15th respectively in this 15-man competition.

The only significant difference between the two sides is Handre Pollard’s kicking boots, which is worth more than six points per match if the two teams’ 2019 scoring average is compared.

On defence they are almost identical with a difference in tackle percentage of only one point.

The record books don’t help us much either.

The Bulls may have won all their SA derbies so far this year, but they haven’t won back-to-back games against the greatest foes since 2009. The Stormers, conversely, are leading the head-to-head count with 18 wins to the Bulls’ 13, but they’ve conceded 740 points despite all those wins while only scoring 706 themselves.

The crystal ball says anything is possible. The crystal ball is also going onto the trash heap.

We’re certain about three things: death, taxes and (when it comes to the big North-South derby) a whole week’s worth of smugness from the winning team’s fans.

Enjoy!

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Let’s have a look at what happened elsewhere in the world of rugby this week.

Tries of the week:

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Best of social media:

Not sure, but there is a father figure...

Are we absolutely sure that there is someone coaching the Sharks?

— Darrel Bristow-Bovey (@dbbovey) April 19, 2019

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We all had that one team-mate...

Maybe he'll pass it next time ?? pic.twitter.com/KeBmpgsiq6

— Rugbydump.com (@Rugbydump) April 19, 2019

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Why does he have a T in his surname?...

For some reason Yoann Huget paraded about without his shorts after the match, this should be a thing for all players #LEIvTOU pic.twitter.com/ocCtBp1G6K

— Rugger Perv (@Ruggerperv) April 21, 2019

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And the Afrikaans okes kept going on about a "pass naweek"...

#LEIvTOU Eggsellent weather for what should be a cracking match. Happy egg chasing. Cant wait.????

— Deckie Dermody (@DeckieDermody) April 21, 2019

--------------Is Dan The Man?

Former World Cup-winning coach Sir Graham Henry has set tongues wagging in New Zealand after he suggested that the All Blacks should call up Dan Carter in place of the injured Damien McKenzie.

As reported last week, Carter recently underwent neck surgery and is not expected to return to action any time soon, but that didn’t seem to deter his former coach.

"There's been some talk about Dan Carter and I don't think Dan Carter will let you down," Henry said.

"I know that he played in the final of the Japanese competition and played outstandingly," he told Newstalk ZB.

As well as his experience, two-time World Cup winner Carter also has extensive knowledge of the Japan scene having most recently played for Kobelco Steelers.

"Well you know, he's been there and done that. He would be number three and I think he fits comfortably in that position. And he'll add a huge amount of experience and intellectual property about the Rugby World Cup and playing international rugby," Henry said.

We are unable to confirm rumours that Butch James started polishing his old boots upon hearing the news.

Steyn at home?

Speaking of rumours: the English rugby transfer chat site talkingrugbyunion.co.uk suggested earlier this week that Springbok World Cup-winner Frans Steyn is seriously considering returning to Bloemfontein when his current contract with French club Montpellier expires in 2020.

According to the site Steyn is looking to cement a spot in the Cheetahs squad that will compete in next year’s Pro 14 competition.

We can’t say whether the rumour is based on anything concrete, but it is enough to make us think what a Cheetahs team could look like if Steyn’s French team-mates decided to follow suit.

How do you fancy a Cheetahs team that boasts names like Frans Steyn, Jan Serfontein, Johan Goosen, Bismarck and Jannie du Plessis as well as Ruan Pienaar. We can only dream.