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This could be the moving weekend

rugby11 April 2019 10:57| © Cycle Lab
By:JJ Harmse
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Jaco Coetzee © Gallo Images

The halfway point of the league phase of Vodacom Super Rugby arrives this weekend and this is normally the time of year when we become a lot clearer about who the leaders are and who the chasers are.

Up to now there’s been little to choose from between the teams in a very even South African conference battle. Although the Stormers and Jaguares are last currently, on 14 log points with just three wins in seven, they are just seven behind the log leading Sharks.

That the Sharks, who have lost two games at home already this season, are top sums up just how mediocre the local challenge has been thus far. The Durbanites were very good against the Lions last week, and also in the first half against the Blues at the start of the competition, but they have yet to shake off their reputation for being inconsistent.

The Bulls were the team everyone was talking about in February and up to as recently as their big win over the Sharks at Loftus, but they have lost their way since then, with two home defeats and a feeling that they have yet to shake off the scars of the unexpected 50 pointer they conceded at home to the Chiefs.

The Lions started well against the Jaguares away and have impressed in patches but you wouldn’t say they are anywhere near the team they were. Up until eight months ago they boasted a long sequence of success against fellow South African teams, but they haven’t beaten another local side since then. And they were thumped in their supposed fortress by both the Sharks and the Bulls.

The expectation will be different for the Lions on the tour that starts with their visit to Canberra on Saturday than it was when they last visited Australasia in league play. Back then, last April, their was great hope, but after an initial good win over the Waratahs in Sydney, the Lions lost their way and lost their remaining three games.

Although they only play three games in Australasia this year, in comparison to the four of 2018, the Lions will need to reverse the trend set 12 months ago and now deliver when it isn’t expected. The Stormers might just about be able to afford to lose games overseas given that Newlands, where they play most of their rugby after this, is still a fortress for them, but the Lions, after losing at home can’t afford to do that.

The pressure is acutely on the Stormers too though this week as the gap between them and the top team could start becoming a chasm after this round. The Sharks, if they beat the Jaguares at King’s Park and the Stormers lose their final tour game in Melbourne, which you’d expect them to do given the changes to the Cape side, there could be as much as 12 points separating them at the halfway point.

That can be made up in a flash if the Stormers win a sequence of games at Newlands and the Sharks stumble when they get overseas, but it is still a big difference and it will place extra pressure on the Stormers, who might then find themselves coming home facing a scenario that amounts to close to being on a knock-out footing for a period of two months.

In that sense this should be a moving weekend - it will establish for the first time which is the team, or are the teams, to be chased, and which will be doing the chasing. Given how it has gone so far, with so much unpredictability, it wouldn’t be surprising if the teams we expect to win end up losing and the others win, which would see the South African sides going into the second half of the competition all square.

Weekend fixtures

South African Conference

Rebels v DHL Stormers (Melbourne, Friday 11.45)

Stormers coach Robbie Fleck is excited about the energy the new players in the pack have brought. He also admits that the changes over the past two weeks have had to force a few changes to the team’s approach.

The Stormers started this tour too forward orientated and too direct, but the past two weeks they arguably haven’t been direct enough.

Fleck is right though in intimating that the pack for this week is a mobile one - it could have been more so if Jaco Coetzee had been switched to No 6 - and he is also right in saying that while they lack experience, there is still plenty of ability.

It will be a big challenge though to pull off a win in Melbourne, even though the Stormers’ record against the Rebels reads won five out of six, as the Rebels aren’t the easy beats they used to be. They are in essence a fusion of the previous strengths of the Rebels, Reds and Western Force. Dane Haylett-Petty isn’t starting for the Rebels but they do have their kingpins, Quade Cooper and Will Genia, at halfback and that is where the game will be decided in their favour.

Prediction: Rebels by 7

Brumbies v Emirates Lions (Canberra, Saturday 11.45)

When Warren Whiteley was injured in the second game against the Stormers even the most ardent Lions fans would have feared the worst, as the regular captain’s influence is massive. Those fears have proved founded, and even more so now that there have been more injuries to experienced players, and particularly first choice forwards, which on top of the off-season departures has left the Lions looking a pale shadow of the team that won three conference titles in a row. It is not often the Lions travel anywhere on the back of a 37 point defeat at home, so this will be a new experience for them. Maybe, just maybe, being underdogs again will suit them, but that is a thin straw to clutch to. Coach Swys de Bruin has Stephan Lewies adding bulk again at blindside flank but the Lions’ previous strength, meaning their strong forward pack, is no longer. It would come as a big surprise if they won to add another overseas win to the ones they scored in Singapore and Buenos Aires.

Prediction: Brumbies by 10

Cell C Sharks v Jaguares (Durban, Saturday 15.05)

Okay so there is a lot of expectation on the Sharks again, as there always is when they manage to play to their capabilities and produce the performances their team list suggests they should be capable of. How will they deal with that expectation? It’s anyone’s guess, as they don’t have a good track record when they are expected to do the business as opposed to just being hopeful of doing the business. It might make Sharks fans nervous that this is the game where some key forwards are being rested as we’ve seen what has happened to the Bulls and Stormers when the Boks sit out. A win will put the Sharks in a strong position, if they lose they will drop back into the chasing pack. A lot will hinge too on the attitude of the Jaguares. The Argentine side went to Durban under-strength last year and the Sharks won easily enough. The Jaguares have tended to drift in and out of games, particularly on South African soil, and it has cost them. But maybe their unexpected late win in Pretoria last week will have galvanised them.

Prediction: Sharks by 10

Vodacom Bulls v Reds (Pretoria, Saturday 17.15)

Six Springboks have returned to the Bulls team for this game and that should enable them to underline a point - that being that the quality and experience of the personnel entered on the team sheet does make a big difference. Handre Pollard, Jesse Kriel and company, not to mention Marco van Staden, returning to the mix should more than off-set the decision to rest Duane Vermeulen this week and the continued absence through suspension of Schalk Brits.

Prediction: Bulls by 15 to 20

Australasian Conference

Crusaders v Highlanders (Christchurch, Friday 09.35)

Prediction: Crusaders by 12

Chiefs v Blues (Hamilton, Saturday 09.35)

Prediction: Chiefs by less than 7

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