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Two teams with similar goals but different expectations
Both of them will be looking to retain momentum by beating Kiwi opposition. But the significant difference is that the while the Bulls are at Loftus and are playing against a Chiefs side that showed signs of regaining some form last week but have generally been horrible this year, the Stormers are in Wellington to face the Hurricanes.
Although the Hurricanes drew with the Chiefs last week in Hamilton, a result that many would have regarded as unexpected, and haven’t really hit their straps yet, they are still second, in terms of log points accumulated, to the front-running Crusaders on the overall log.
The Stormers left South Africa quietly confident that they have the pack and now also the physical defensive system to trouble the Hurricanes in their own back-yard, but that isn’t what the general rugby supporting public appear to think. Some bookies have given the Stormers as much as a 16-point start.
That is easy to understand if you see it in context. History reflects that while the Stormers have the edge when it comes to head to head clashes between the teams, with the Cape side having been on the winning side 10 times to the eight of the Hurricanes, the last few years have been a nightmare for the Stormers on tours of New Zealand.
Their defence was easily broken apart on their most recent trips and that is what everyone is remembering. Also, while the Stormers did score an important away victory in Durban three weeks ago, their away record under Robbie Fleck has been abysmal. So it makes sense, the Stormers should be underdogs. At least if you haven’t taken a good look at how the respective packs have performed in recent games.
The Stormers have a Springbok front-row, an influential international second row forward (assuming Eben Etzebeth passes his last concussion test) and a Bok in waiting on the bench, the Bok captain at No 6 and the 2018 SA Player of the Year on the other flank. The No 8 is a former World Junior Player of the Year. If you don’t give that pack a chance of driving an upset, then frankly you should write off the Bok chances of beating New Zealand this year too.
Which brings up another point. The game is being played in Wellington. Etzebeth (if he plays), Pieter-Steph du Toit, Frans Malherbe, Steven Kitshoff and of course Siya Kolisi, plus Damian de Allende, will remember their last visit to that city. It would be surprising if they are not driving the Springbok team motivation this week around the seismic win over the All Blacks at Westpac Stadium last September.
The Bulls are on a completely different plane as they should be expected to beat the Chiefs, and do it comfortably. Indeed, it might be the expectation that is suddenly attached to the Bulls’ matches that could be their biggest challenge. It is still early in the season and they haven’t won anything yet, but in some ways a quote from Wales’ Six Nations-winning captain Alun Wyn Jones is applicable to them: “We now have targets on our backs”.
The point though is that if the Bulls expect to sustain their challenge, they should be expected to beat the Chiefs, who have looked a team at odds with themselves this season.
It’s a testing weekend for South African rugby in the sense that for the first time we have all the teams playing cross-conference and against overseas opposition. And with the exception of the Bulls game, it is hard to be certain in any of them that there will be a South African winner.
A year ago you could have taken poison that the Lions would beat the Sunwolves in Singapore, but not anymore. The Lions were poor in the first half against the Rebels and probably wouldn’t have recovered in that game had it not been for the fact they were playing at home, with the altitude as their 16th or 24th man. Conversely, although they lost last week, the Sunwolves have looked a different team since they were last in Singapore, which was when they got thumped by the Sharks on the opening weekend.
The Sharks were sailing back then and appeared to be emerging as likely conference front-runners after their subsequent easy win over the Blues, but a home defeat against the Stormers and an even bigger loss away from home against the Bulls has set them back. They come up against a Rebels team that will be smarting at the way they surrendered the initiative against the Lions and which, apart from that second half in Johannesburg, have played great rugby this year.
WEEKEND FIXTURES AND PREDICTIONS
SOUTH AFRICAN CONFERENCE
HURRICANES V DHL STORMERS (WELLINGTON, SATURDAY 8:35am)
The Stormers have made three changes for this game, but their chances of upsetting the odds by winning this clash could hinge on whether Eben Etzebeth is in the starting team, meaning whether he passes stage five of his concussion test on Friday.
The Hurricanes have made some changes for this clash, and will be without Laugane Lamaupi and TJ Perenara among others, probably due to All Black resting protocols.
Although they have moved Jordie Barrett to inside centre, which could prove a master-stroke on the part of coach John Plumtree, the Hurricanes could be vulnerable.
That is provided that the Stormers have properly lost the travel sickness that has blighted them in recent years.
They appeared to take a big step forward to recovery when they beat the Sharks at King’s Park, but Wellington is far from Durban, which has tended to be a happy hunting ground for Western Province teams. The Hurricanes start as overwhelming favourites but if I was a sheep I’d have wool on my body so I’m not following the herd. My money says that, provided Etzebeth is in the team to bring his influence and calming presence, not to mention the experience of having won at this venue with the Boks last year, the Stormers will confound the expectations.
PREDICTION: STORMERS BY 5
SUNWOLVES V EMIRATES LIONS (SINGAPORE, SATURDAY 12:55pm)
The Lions will be pleased they are playing the Sunwolves in Singapore, where they tend to be less successful and competitive than at their other regular home ground in Tokyo (they’ve also played in Hong Kong).
There have been further injuries to the Lions since their come-from-behind win over the Rebels last week, and they are injuries that could hurt.
The Lions do rely strongly on forward dominance, and the loss of regular loosehead prop Dylan Smith, who has been in excellent form recently, is a massive blow.
He will be out for eight to 12 weeks. Kwagga Smith is also out and will be missed, and the Lions loose-trio is suddenly looking quite inexperienced, with Marnus Schoeman the only survivor from the back row that started the season. Don’t bet your house on the Lions winning.
PREDICTION: LIONS BY 7
VODACOM BULLS V CHIEFS (PRETORIA, SATURDAY 3:05pm)
The Bulls have made an interesting change at fullback, with Divan Rossouw being switched to the last line of defence in place of the injured Warrick Gelant.
The latter has a shoulder injury and although coach Pote Human expects him to be ready to play in the return derby against the Sharks in Durban next week, he has decided to sit him out of this game.
The Bulls are back from their bye and should be refreshed and hungry to continue where they left off against the Sharks last time out.
They have played twice at Loftus this season and have been pretty irrepressible in those games. With experienced Duane Vermeulen, Schalk Brits, Handre Pollard and Jesse Kriel as the drivers, the Bulls should continue on their winning way. As a New Zealand team the Chiefs are dangerous, and all Kiwi teams love the firm and dry surfaces of the highveld, but they should be expected to come second in this one.
Prediction: Bulls by 12
Cell C Sharks v Rebels (Durban, Saturday 5:05pm)
The Sharks have made a clutch of changes as they look to recover from two successive defeats, with Phepsi Buthelezi coming in for his first Super Rugby start, and Ruben van Heerden given an opportunity in the second row alongside Hyron Andrews.
Andre Esterhuizen is back after playing off the bench against the Bulls, while Aphelele Fassi is back at No 15.
However the Sharks team is probably less of a talking point than the Rebels' selection, for several Wallabies, including scrumhalf kingpin Will Genia, are sitting out this game as per the Australian resting policy.
Rebels coach Dave Wessels is apparently positive the players coming in are talented enough to fill the holes that have been created, but it does appear that the Melbourne side might have targeted last week’s game against the Lions. Either way, the selection does appear to strengthen the Sharks’ chances of getting back on the winning track.
Prediction: Sharks by 12
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Australasian Conferences
Blues v Highlanders (Auckland, Friday 8:35am)
Prediction: Blues by 8
Waratahs v Crusaders (Sydney, Saturday 10:45am)
Prediction: Crusaders by 10
Reds v Brumbies (Brisbane, Sunday 07.05)
Prediction: Reds by 5
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