Boks come out of holding pattern to face moment of truth

The almost week long holding pattern the Springboks would have felt they were in after their final Pool game against Namibia ends today as they start to focus on playing Japan in Sunday’s quarterfinal at Tokyo Stadium.

Much like an airliner circling a city waiting for ground clearance, the Boks have always known where they were going to land. They knew it from the moment the final whistle sounded on their 23-13 defeat to New Zealand in Yokohama three weeks ago.

Ironically though, losing that game might have helped the Boks in a big way. For this year, unlike in 1995 when a win in the opening game against Australia set up a top place finish on the log and what coach Kitch Christie called the high road to the final, this time around, the high road, if you could call it that, was set up by losing and finishing second.

RASSIE WILL TALK UP JAPAN - AS HE SHOULD

When Bok coach Rassie Erasmus speaks to the media on arrival in Tokyo later today (Monday) he is bound to talk up Japan. And so he should. Make no mistake, he also rates them. In his public utterances he talks about how dangerous Japan are, how well coached they are, and the problems they pose for opposing coaches have also been expressed in private.

But while the focus of the overseas media after the epic 28-21 win over Scoland, has been about the innovative brand of rugby Japan employed, it, is how the Boks, or anybody for that matter, can cope with the pace of Japan’s game, that should however, be highlighted as the reality is that the Boks will probably just be too physical for them.

Scotland aren’t in the same league physically as the Boks so they weren’t able to control the game in the way they needed to against Japan’s busy 15-men constantly engaged and operating as potential ball carriers. The Boks, having learnt lessons from their shock 2015 defeat to Japan in Brighton (there are several members of this squad who were part of that squad too) played Japan the right way when the two sides met in Yumagaya in a warm-up fixture on 6 September.

THERE IS A CAVEAT

Physical forward play and pinpoint kicking and chasing saw Japan get outplayed 41-7 and six tries to one. There is a caveat, which is that the weather conditions have changed since that sweat bath. The temperature and humidity has dropped noticeably in Japan over the past two weeks, as those who have played and coached here predicted it would.

Erasmus was impressed with the way Japan handled the ball, and the continuity they were able to bring to their game as a result, after the warm-up game. They have now taken that handling to the next level. On a relatively dry and firm night in Yokohama, they showcased astounding skill levels.

Their ability to keep the ball alive, sometimes using sublime little flicks and passes that would surely see other teams flounder if they tried them, was what ensured the switches of direction that had the Scottish defence floundering and frequently outflanked. They kept the ball enough in their multi-phase attacking plays to ensure the Scots won just 25% of the ball in the first half. In that time, they went to 21-7 down after being 7-0 up at one stage, and Japan scored 21 points without reply in the 23 minutes before halftime.

JAPAN ARE SUPREMELY FIT

The Japanese are supremely fit. Their goal is always to run the opposition off their feet, to wear them down. That doesn’t mean they don’t kick of course, there were notable moments when their kick attack worked for them too.

Winning the ball back and then transitioning is one of their specialties when it comes to try scoring, so defence is also a core of their game. But while Japan will be a different proposition to what they were in the warm-up fixture, the Boks would also have been encouraged by the inroads Scotland made in the second half when they got some of their grunt up.

They were chasing the game then and inevitably made mistakes, but both their second half tries were scored by front-row forwards. This also wasn’t one of those games where Japan were still strong right at the end and the opposition were spent, as was the case when they beat Ireland. It was Scotland pressing at the end.

Will Japan be able to contain the Bok pack? And how will they deal with a defensive system that employs line-speed and aggressive physicality in the same way they do, but with personnel that are generally bigger? The Scotland team don’t have what the Boks have so it is hard to answer the question definitively.

IRELAND MIGHT HAVE POSED MORE PROBLEMS

Ireland, poor though they were when they lost to Japan themselves, might have posed more problems for the Boks. They did arrive at the World Cup ranked No 1 in the world after all.

Someone from the overseas media mentioned in the press box before the Yokohama game that Ireland showed in patches against Samoa in their last group phase game and also in their tournament opener against Scotland that they are one of the few teams who might, at a push, be able to live with the South African physicality. He is right.

Erasmus would have been happy to play Ireland because he feels he knows them like the back of his hand after coaching so many of them when he was in charge of Munster. But he also knows what they are capable of when they put it together.

He knows what Japan are capable of too. But that is perhaps the very reason why the Boks should be overwhelming favourites. They’ve been burnt by Japan before and spent a lot of time before coming to Japan plotting a way to beat them. They got that right quite easily five weeks ago. They will back themselves to do it again.

ALL BLACKS FACE A PROPER CHALLENGE

Ireland meanwhile could pose a proper challenge for an All Black team that hasn’t played much rugby recently in Saturday's quarterfinal at the Tokyo Stadium. Ireland of course won the last two times they played against the All Blacks, and are in fact the team that has beaten the Kiwis the most in this World Cup cycle (they also famously won in Washington in 2016).

The winner of that game will play the winner of the Oita Stadium quarterfinal on Saturday between England and Australia. It is a tough road for whoever wins. Beating Wales if they deal with Japan this week will be a challenge for the Boks too because they haven’t beaten the Welsh for some time.

If you look at the record books though you will notice that it is the Boks who normally win the games that matter - examples being their clash in the 2011 World Cup as well as the 2015 World Cup quarterfinal. On top of that the Welsh appear to be struggling with their game at present, of which the same can be said of the other potential semifinal opponents, France.

Whether the Boks agree that they have the easier passage to the final than the teams on the other side of the draw is a matter of speculation, but what we do know is that the World Cup proper starts for them right now. From this week it is the real deal and the pressure is not just a practice run. The Boks should beat Japan but they need to bring the same level of physical 80 minute intensity that they brought against Italy in Shizuoka 10 days ago.