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Where the Boks are at heading into the play-offs

rugby10 October 2019 04:19| © SuperSport
By:Gavin Rich
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Rassie Erasmus © Gallo Images

An anticipated flood of Springbok supporters into Japan for the knock-out rounds of the Rugby World Cup is an indication that momentum has been restored after the blip against New Zealand but at this stage it is difficult to separate fact and perception.

What the big wins over Namibia, Italy and Canada should have done is build confidence ahead of what has always amounted to the game where nerves could have the biggest impact. Once you are past the first play-off game you are guaranteed to stay until the final week of the tournament, for the losers in the two semifinals play each other in the third/fourth play-off a few days before the decider.

Head coach and national director of rugby Rassie Erasmus and his right hand man Jacques Nienaber know all about what a stressful experience it is to lose a quarterfinal. They were there as technical director and defence coach respectively when the team coached by Peter de Villiers exited to Australia, thanks mainly to a bizarre refereeing performance from New Zealander Bryce Lawrence, in Wellington in 2011.

Just a few hours after that game, in the early hours of the morning, the Boks were spotted dejectedly boarding the bus that would take them to the airport for the start of the homeward journey. Those who were there have spoken subsequently of the despair and the feeling of massive anti-climax as a group that had been together for four years building to one goal said hurried goodbyes. The logistical challenges mean the whole squad doesn’t fly together on the homeward journey after a quarterfinal defeat but in separate groups.

WORKING HARD TO PREVENT REPEAT OF WELLINGTON

Erasmus has been working hard at trying to ensure that at least the Boks are in the right head-space to minimise the chances of a repeat. He knows that advancing past the play-off if you are a Bok coach represents relative success, that not doing so represents failure. It is why he has hyped up games, such as last week’s clash with Italy in Shizuoka, as quasi-playoff matches.

The team has done as well as it could have been expected to subsequent to the All Black defeat. They conceded just 36 points across the four games, and just three tries, while they scored 185 points and crossed the line 29 times.

But where are the Boks really? The coaches and players say they welcome the 12 day turn-around before the quarterfinal. They have been here for two weeks longer than the other teams because of the warm-up game against Japan. So this is a good time to regroup and refresh.

At the same time though momentum is an important thing and there has to be some risk in the fact that by the time they do get to the quarterfinal, it will be exactly a month since they played an intense, tight game against a big opponent. Italy doesn’t really qualify as a big opponent. And Italy, like Canada in the most recent game, played much of the match with 14 men.

According to scrumhalf Cobus Reinach, the players retain their match sharpness by simulating game situations in training. His match-winning performance against Canada is evidence that it works. He hasn’t played much in the past few months, and yet there was nothing lacking in his performance when called upon to start.

EFFICIENT AND PROFESSIONAL

Erasmus is highly efficient and professional in his management of the players and their work-loads and as loose-forward Francois Louw said at the start of the tournament, Erasmus is not someone who leaves anything to chance. Every little potential scenario would have been considered by Erasmus and assessed.

Provided though that Typhoon Hagibis, the violent weather system expected to make landfall in Japan on Saturday, doesn’t force the cancellation of this week’s scheduled games, whoever the Boks face next Sunday’s quarterfinal will have played more recently than they would have. And if their opponents are Japan, they’d have played an effective high pressure knock-out game just seven days ahead of the start of the official play-offs.

Erasmus said it after the win over Canada - it is hard to really assess where you are, and where the players are in relation to their ability to do the business against top opposition, after games against tier two teams.

The Bok pack was formidable and should have struck fear into future opponents in the big win over Italy, but those opponents didn’t equate to New Zealand, England or for that matter any of the other potential big players in the knock-out phase. The South Africans did get a good foretaste of the pressure, intensity and reduced time there is for decision making in the opening game against New Zealand, but that was almost three weeks ago now, and will be more than four weeks ago when the quarterfinal arrives.

New Zealand or course are in the same boat in terms of not knowing quite how to measure their progress since the Pool B opener. They do though get to play the next best team in the group, Italy, a lot closer to their quarterfinal than the Boks did.

PROGRESS IN BOK ATTACKING GAME

Although the debilitating humidity has impacted negatively on handling, as it has on all teams apart perhaps from the hosts, the Boks do appear to have made some progress when it comes to their attacking game. They weren’t facing a team that had any clue how to apply rush defence, but Erasmus selected a side to run the ball against Canada and they did that quite well.

There have been two injuries since the start of the tournament serious enough to force players home. It is debatable whether in either the case of Jesse Kriel or Trevor Nyakane there is a like for like replacement, but nonetheless Erasmus has created with his selections the perception that he has depth in those positions.

Running Handre Pollard at inside centre alongside Elton Jantjies towards the end of the Canada game was a clever move. Not so much because it is a realistic selection option, but because it could become a necessity should there be injuries over the next few weeks.

The Damian de Allende switch to outside centre against Canada worked and has solidified the midfield options, while Frans Steyn has now put in two 80 minute performances and there has been a noticeable pay-off in terms of his sharpness. He’s not quite the player he was when he won the World Cup as a 20-year-old, but then he is 12 years older so makes up for his relative loss of explosiveness and pace with the wisdom and calm head that comes with experience.

THINGS FOR THE COACH TO PONDER

Reinach’s performance against Canada should have given Erasmus something to think about when it comes to back-up scrumhalf in the quarterfinal, while RG Snyman’s showing at lock might have been bad news for Franco Mostert. The former Lions player has been a constant in the Bok match-day squads over the past year but he is now well behind the impressive Lood de Jager when it comes to No 5 locks.

If Erasmus goes with a six/two split between forwards and backs, which he may well do if the quarterfinal opponents are Ireland, then Mostert will be part of the match 23. If Erasmus goes for five/three, then he is likely to lose out to Snyman.

There may have been question marks over the match readiness of skipper Siya Kolisi after the opening game in Yokohama, but he has played two full games plus a bit part since then. Erasmus reckons he has regained his old form. Again though, like with all the other players who have advanced themselves in recent weeks, we will only really know how good they are and ready they are to excel against top opposition once the knock-outs, and the better quality opposition, come into view.

CONDITIONS ARE CHANGING

What is going to be interesting going forward is the impact of the conditions. It definitely feels that the humidity factor is lessening. That might not have appeared the case when the Boks beat Canada in Kobe, but the game was played in an indoor arena. The outdoor games played on Wednesday, where there definitely appeared to be an upswing in the handling and running rugby, may be a better yardstick.

A few of the players have telegraphed the Bok intention in the play-off phase by saying that the knock-outs are a time when the team that plays the least rugby tends to win. But will that be the case? Possibly not, but then on the evidence of their recent performances, where there has been a focus on attacking efficiency, saying that they won’t play rugby is a relative concept.

The cross kick method of attack that killed them in Yokohama has been applied relatively successfully by both players who have worn the No 10 since then. There is a question mark over Willie le Roux’s form, but the other two back three players have the X-factor to exploit opportunities, while the impact of some of Le Roux’s subtle touches on attack, meaning mainly his passing game, should not be underestimated.

Ultimately you’d have to say that you can only play the team that is in front of you and in that sense there isn’t much more the Boks could have done to further boost confidence and readiness for next Sunday at Tokyo Stadium. But as always is the case when building up to a one-off winner takes all game, it’s going to be a tense, nervy week where mental preparation is going to be as important as physical preparation.

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