A tense week awaits Boks as humidity impacts

The Japan win over Ireland that was the talking point of the second week of the Rugby World Cup may have pleased the Springboks in some ways but in another way it was a chilling warning for them as they head into what their coach, Rassie Erasmus, has described as a crunch week.

Before leaving for Japan the South African national director of rugby said he was convinced there would be upsets in the Pool phases of the tournament due to the conditions being a big leveller. He noted that none of the teams other than the hosts had experience of playing regularly in the wretched humidity that has been experienced in this World Cup.

He expects the change in conditions anticipated later in the tournament as late summer swings into autumn in Japan, something that apparently happens quite suddenly and quickly, to ensure that the best team will win in the play-off phase. The problem for Erasmus though is that he knows only too well that because of his team’s defeat to New Zealand in their tournament opener in Yokohama, if they don’t win their next game against Italy in Shizuoka, there will be no play-off phase for the Boks.

PAINFUL MEMORIES

Erasmus has painful memories of the Boks’ hurried departure from the 2011 World Cup just a matter of hours after their controversial quarterfinal defeat to Australia, and he has admitted to long being concerned about the potential for the Italians to inflict something similar on the current team.

Whenever he is asked about the quarterfinals and his preference of opponent, which is often, he has always prefaced his replies by saying “if we beat Italy”. South Africans don’t need reminding that the underdogs can win on their day in a World Cup. The Boks experienced it in 2015.

The difference this time is that the Boks going through another Brighton (where they lost to Japan) would not leave them in a place where it was possible to recover, like Fourie du Preez’s team did in making the semifinals. A loss to Italy will send them out of the tournament and not making the quarterfinal will signify South Africa’s worst ever performance at a Rugby World Cup.

THE HUMIDITY IS A LEVELLER

So while the Boks should be expected to win in Shizuoka, which coincidentally is the same venue where Japan pulled off the first major upset of this tournament, it is going to be a tense week - and they will be on a knock-out footing. The big leveller that is the humid conditions that bring teams closer together will ensure that.

“After the Pool games, according to what players who have played here before and coaches who have coached here before have told me, there is a sudden change,” said Erasmus in reference to the humidity.

“In two or three weeks' time the conditions should be very different. It won’t be so much in terms of the temperature but the humidity apparently changes quite a bit and then handling the ball becomes much easier. From what I am told, it can happen quite quickly.

“If you recall what we said two or three weeks ago, there might be one or two upsets in the Pool phases but when it gets to the quarterfinals, semifinals and finals, then the best teams will win. From then I think that the humidity factor won’t play such a big role. I think a classic example was the Ireland/Japan game.

“Japan are used to these conditions and you saw it in the way they handled the ball. Because Ireland, although they do have a great kicking game, are a team that actually love to keep ball in hand. But they struggled to do it after halftime because of the slippery ball. I watched that game right to the end. I only went out to our team’s warm-up (for the game against Namibia) afterwards.”

The prospect of the Boks and Japan clashing in a quarterfinal were raised considerably by the Japan win over the team that arrived at the World Cup ranked No 1 in the world. If Japan win their remaining games against Samoa and Scotland, and the Boks do beat Italy, it will be a reality.

Erasmus described it as a scary prospect, and playing the host nation in front of their own supporters always is, but by the time the play-offs arrive Japan shouldn’t have their big ally, meaning the humidity, working for them. Japan won the game by playing with a tempo that the Irish just couldn’t cope with in the conditions. They could perhaps live with it for a while, but not for a full 80 minutes. They were out-lasted as much as anything else.

NORTHERN TEAMS STRUGGLING MORE

What was notable this past weekend was how much of an impact the humidity is having, and it may not have been a coincidence that both of the northern hemisphere teams that played big games looked out on their feet in the second half. Wales did manage to hold on against Australia but the humidity definitely did get to their energy levels after halftime, while the Japanese intensity is what set it up for the hosts the day before. The Irish were nowhere after halftime.

Reading between the lines of what Erasmus said at the post-match press conference to his team’s 57-3 win over Namibia at Toyota Stadium in Toyota City, teams may need to target their best attacking moments for the first quarter of a game and then plan to play a crude forward orientated wet-weather game after that.

“The conditions definitely impact on your approach. It’s not just the ball that is wet, it is also the arms that are wet, it is your jersey that is wet. At halftime the guys changed jerseys but within five minutes in the second half everything was soaking and slippery again. It even impacts on the mauling off the lineout as the ball becomes difficult to transfer.”

That is maybe why we saw less of the destructive driving mauls that set up the Bok win over Namibia later in that game.

“It is difficult to adapt (to these conditions) in a week and I don’t think you will adapt, it can’t happen that quickly. And then all of a sudden it (the humidity) will probably go away so it is tough for everybody,” said Erasmus.

“It is difficult to explain to people just how tough the conditions are. It’s always easy for the first 20 to 25 minutes, you can ask the players. The chat beforehand is ‘listen, the ball is going to stick for the first 15 to 20 minutes and then after that it is going to be almost impossible to handle the ball’ Then it gets a bit boring.”

FRANS NOT EXPECTING ANYONE TO PLAY RUGBY

It does indeed, but the only previous World Cup winner in the Bok group doesn’t appear to think there will be the quantum shift in tactics once it gets drier that Erasmus appears to expect. Frans Steyn, who was part of the 2007 World Cup winning team, remembers play-off games for the no-risk rugby that is produced and he thinks the change in conditions will coincide with a more set, conservative mind-set from all the competing teams.

“I don’t know if the conditions will change but do you think later in the tournament the teams are still going to be trying to play rugby?”

That was Steyn’s response to a question directed at the probable change in conditions that he would have experienced when he played club rugby here.

“The team that plays the least, that make the least mistakes, is the one that wins the World Cup. It is a World Cup, I mean, if you look in 2007 in the final we didn’t really do a lot. We just need to win. We don’t need to play rugby.”