No banana skin but it could be messy

There is too much awareness of Japanese rugby in the Springbok squad for there to be a realistic chance of a repeat of the seismic Brighton upset in 2015 but don’t be surprised if the final World Cup warm-up game in Kumagaya is a messy affair.

At the start of the last World Cup there weren’t as many players in the Bok group who had played in Japan as there are now. Fourie du Preez, who after Jean de Villiers was injured became the captain later in that tournament, had played a couple of years in Japan at that point and recalls feeling concern ahead of that pool game that his South African teammates weren’t taking the Japanese threat seriously enough.

It would be hard not to take Japan seriously now though given the impact of the 34-32 defeat four years ago. There are still enough survivors in the current team, including skipper Siya Kolisi, who were present when Japan shocked the world. And there isn’t anyone in the squad who wouldn’t at least have watched the game on television.

REGULAR CONTACT

Factor into that the fact that South Africans now have regular contact with Japan, and their style of rugby, through the Sunwolves’ participation in Super Rugby, and the unknown factor of Brighton disappears.

There has been a lot of talk from the Boks this week about playing to their strengths, which of course isn’t what they did last time when they arrogantly thought they could just pitch up and win. To be fair, it wasn’t just South Africa who were shocked by the Brighton result - world rugby as a whole was probably guilty of not taking the Brave Blossoms seriously enough.

Ironically, the Japanese conditions should play into the hands of the South Africans. According to those who have experienced Japan, we can expect drier and firmer surfaces later in the World Cup, once autumn starts arriving to that part of the world. But for now, the humidity is the big talking point, and you just have to have watched games in Durban in February, or in Singapore at any stage of Super Rugby, to know that that tends to get delivered.

BEWARE OF JAPANESE INNOVATION

So don’t be surprised if the Kumagaya Stadium game is a messy, stop-start 80 minutes, which will play into the South African hands as the Japanese, if they are to challenge, will want to be keeping ball in hand. The Bok pack, however, should be too strong for them.

Of course, the hosts are used to the conditions and could still be innovative if they do get ball to play with. While their most talked about success apart from Brighton was in the Pacific Nations Cup, the most recent game they’ve played that South Africans would have watched was the one they played against England at Twickenham last November.

England ended up winning comfortably on the scoreboard in the end, but Japan gave them a lot to think about in the first half. Even though their former coach, Eddie Jones, was in charge of England, the hosts in that game were surprised by some of what the Japanese team brought to the game.

South Africans know the Japan coaching group, and their capabilities, very well. There will be a lot of respect for Jamie Joseph, who guided the Highlanders to their only Super Rugby title in 2015. It will be recalled that the Highlanders never boasted a particularly formidable pack but they played clever rugby.

But provided the Boks blunt the Japan threat at the breakdown, and thus prevent them getting into the game, they should comfortably avenge Brighton and ensure that they head into the World Cup unbeaten in the year.

THIS GAME ISN'T A TRIAL

There has been lots written and said about what coach Rassie Erasmus should be looking for and some have made this game out to be a bit of a trial for players wanting to be part of the starting team against the All Blacks in the World Cup opener two weeks later. Knowing Erasmus though that is not the case - he knows exactly who will be starting in Yokohama and barring injuries it will be the same 15 that take the field on Friday.

What he will be looking for though is some cohesion, good game management and appreciation of the conditions and, above all, just that his men get a proper hit out in preparation for what they face two weeks hence. In that sense, it will probably serve his purpose better if Japan were competitive and pushed his team.

What he won’t want of course is injuries, and like the supporters of all the countries playing their final warm-up games this weekend, South Africans will be holding their collective breaths that all the key players come through okay so they can line up in Yokohama.

If the Boks can get comfortable enough ahead in the game to bring Handre Pollard off early and give Frans Steyn a proper run at pivot, that would also kill two birds with one stone. The question of who will be flyhalf back-up against the All Blacks is one of the few remaining debating points when it comes to Springbok selection.

Teams

Japan: Will Tupou, Kotaro Matsushima, Timothy Lafaele, Ryoto Nakamura, Kenki Fukuoka, Yu Tamura, Kaito Shigeno, Amanaki Lelei Mafi, Pieter Labushagne, Michael Leitch (captain), Uwe Helu, Luke Thompson, Jiwon Koo, Atsushi Sakate, Keita Inagaki.

Replacements: Takuya Kitade, Isileli Nakajima, Asaeli Ai Valu, James Moore, Kazuki Tokunaga, Yutaka Nagare, Rikiya Matsuda, Ataata Moeakiola.

South Africa: Willie le Roux, Cheslin Kolbe, Lukhanyo Am, Damian De Allende, Makazole Mapimpi, Handre Pollard, Faf de Klerk, Duane Vermeulen, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Siya Kolisi (captain), Franco Mostert, Eben Etzebeth, Frans Malherbe, Malcolm Marx, Steven Kitshoff.

Replacements: Bongi Mbonambi, Tendai Mtawarira, Trevor Nyakane, RG Snyman, Francois Louw, Herschel Jantjies, Frans Steyn, Jesse Kriel.

Referee: Nic Berry (Australia)

Kick-off: 12.15 SA time

Prediction: Boks by 15 or more