Who has gone where?

This being the first year after a Rugby World Cup, the start of a new four-year cycle, I’ve had to spend a fair bit of time trying to catch up with who has gone where, who’s new, who’s back and who won’t be around in 2012.

At first glance it would seem that a lot of accomplished players have departed South Africa, New Zealand has also had an exodus, although not as bad as many feared, and that Australia has lost very few top-line performers.

Whether this transforms into Super Rugby form remains to be seen, but it will be a factor once we get into the international programme, although I note that new Springbok coach Heyneke Meyer has indicated he will pick offshore-based players for the Springboks.

Given the calibre of the players who’ve gone offshore, and the trend set by his predecessors, that’s hardly surprising.

Some here would like to see New Zealand rugby follow suit, but the NZRU won’t allow overseas-based players in the All Blacks. They say if they loosened up their stance, there would be a rush for the door because they can’t compete with the ridiculous amounts of money on offer “up North”.

Such a mass departure would strip the Super Rugby teams and domestic competitions of a lot of star power, which would not help them attract sponsors, and the NZRU see the All Black jersey as their most powerful incentive to keep players at home.

There are other risks.

Rugby in Europe is a completely different beast: different tempo, different structure, and – some would have you believe – not as good for a player's development.

I can’t think of any prominent New Zealander who went offshore and came back a better player, Luke McAlister being the most obvious recent example of a guy who was nowhere near as good after his spell in Britain.

Carl Hayman is another, one who Graeme Henry wanted very much to bend the rules for, until it transpired that he had become far from the dynamic force he was in a Highlanders or All Black jersey.

It may be different for South Africans. Certainly Frans Steyn, once he’d cut his hair and shed a few kilos, looked as good as he’d ever been until his horribly timed World Cup injury, but I would say he is a remarkable player and an exception rather than the rule.

But will playing in Japan have the likes of Fourie du Preez and Jaque Fourie, great as they are, ready for the rigours of Castle Rugby Championship rugby?

It’s a space we will watch with interest.

But back to Super Rugby, and a few thoughts on how things are shaping up here in New Zealand.

The Hurricanes are the first Kiwi team South African fans will see in the flesh, and they appear, on paper at least, to be a shadow of their former selves.

Last year their new coach Mark Hammett brought a hard-edged, Canterbury-honed approach to the Wellington franchise, but it all turned to custard.

Gone are Piri Weepu and Ma’a Nonu to the Blues, Hosea Gear and Andrew Hore to the Highlanders, Aaron Cruden to the Chiefs, and Neemia Tialata and Rodney So’oialo overseas.

They have some very good young talent, but this looms as a tough season, and the Stormers and Lions will be eyeing some early points at their expense.

There have also been wholesale changes at the Chiefs.

Coach Ian Foster has been elevated to the All Black coaching staff after modest success and replaced by Dave Rennie, who is in my humble opinion, the best coach left standing in New Zealand.

Like Jake White, Rennie has had great success at age-group level, and he has taken a number of players to the Chiefs who have served him well at under-20 level, most notably Aaron Cruden.

They have lost Mils Muliaina and Sitiveni Sivivatu, but still have some super talented players in their backline, including a potential combination of former All Black Brendon Leonard or the young livewire Tawera Kerr-Barlow at halfback, Cruden outside him, then Sonny Bill Williams and Richard Kahui in midfield.

Much will depend, however, on the ability of a no-names pack to win them some ball.

The Blues have suffered one big loss in prop John Afoa, but have gained Nonu and Weepu and former All Black wing Rudi Wulf is back after an unhappy spell in France.

They have a strong pack led by All Black hardman Jerome Kaino, and while the Blues often flatter to deceive, they are a good chance to at least emulate last year's trip to the semifinals.

The Highlanders surprised a few last year with a strong mid-season run that included a rare win at Loftus, before falling away. They won’t win the title, but they will roll over for no-one.

That leaves the Crusaders.

They will be without captain Richie McCaw until April and Dan Carter until late March, but they will at least be able to play in front of their own fans this year in Christchurch after becoming a travelling roadshow last year because of the Canterbury earthquake.

They have lost Brad Thorn, SB Williams and Kahn Fotuali’i, but they are bringing through some exciting talent, and I’d be shocked if they were not thereabouts come the playoffs.

The problem with the New Zealand conference, just like South Africa, is that due to the depth of the pool and the fierce, age-old rivalries, it will be harder to get multiple teams through.

The Reds were deserved winners last year, but they and the Waratahs benefited greatly from being in a pool with three weak sides. Maybe the acquisition of Kurtley Beale and James O’Connor by the Melbourne Rebels will even things up a bit, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

If asked to predict two teams from each conference to go through I would be tempted to go with the same as last year: Crusaders and Blues from New Zealand, Reds and Waratahs from Australia, and Sharks and Stormers from South Africa, but for the sake of the competition it’d be good to see a couple of others get amongst the spoils.