Can the Boks break their hoodoo?

Eden Park has been kind to the All Blacks over the years.

They have not lost a test match there since 1994, when the French scored arguably the greatest team try ever seen on that famous ground to snatch a win. They have not lost to the Springboks there since 1937.

But right now, with the reconstruction project in full swing, it is half of a fortress, and the Springboks are sniffing a chance to break another hoodoo.

Gradually this Springbok team is eating up a lot of old records. Two years ago they ended a run of defeats at Carisbrook that stretched back to the very beginning of great rivalry...their first victory in 8 tests there.

A win at Eden Park must be a burning ambition, and if they can do it this year they’ll be very confident of repeating next year when it counts even more.

Another important bogey they seem to have beaten is travel. It used to be an Achilles heel for Springbok sides, and while some of their end of year tour results have been a bit up and down, their players are well used to touring Australia and New Zealand and have plenty of success both a test and Super 14 level to draw confidence from.

So on the back of their three nil sweep of the All Blacks last year, the Boks warrant favouritism for the Tri-Nations and they will firm even more in the betting if they pick up a win or two in Australasia. One Kiwi punter has put 100,000 dollars on the Boks to win the series.

That is also why it is so important for the All Blacks to win this weekends first test of the Tri-Nations. They have to do something to dent the confidence of this Springbok side.

But it’s not going to be easy, because this is a great Springbok side, and fair minded fans anywhere recognise that.

Despite dropping a couple of games on their northern tour last year the Springboks look every bit as strong this year as in 2009, and even stronger up front given the improvement in their scrum, where Gurthro Steenkamp is injury free and playing the best rugby of his career.

I don’t see why the Springboks would want to deviate from the tactics that were so successful for them last year, but there is talk they will play a more expansive game.

The All Blacks can’t afford to play like they did last year, when they tried naively to run the ball from all over the place. They will be better than that, because they have to be.

Dan Carter wasn’t there for the first two tests last year, leaving the ABs in the earnest but rather shaky hands of Stephen Donald. Having Carter back is huge, as is the fact that Fourie du Preez is not there for the Boks. I also wonder if the fact that most of the Springboks didn’t check into their hotel until the early hours of Tuesday morning might not have left them enough time to sort out their body clocks.

Clutching at straws? Maybe, but I have a sneaking feeling that in this first test at least, all those things added up might be just enough to get the All Blacks a win.

I’m sure many of you will have other ideas, and as always I look forward to your thoughts.