Why the Boks will beat Samoa

The outstanding attempt Samoa made at pulling off the upset of the century against England at the weekend may ultimately work in South Africa's favour in their crucial World Cup Pool C match.

Former All Black great Michael Jones, now working with Samoa, has said that his team will be going out to play the games of their lives in the deciding pool match in Brisbane on Saturday.

The island nation desperately need to make the quarterfinals in order to give rugby in their region the boost it needs.

However, the longer that the Samoans were competitive in their intense showdown with England last Sunday so the more it began to appear that they may have chosen the wrong game to play the games of their lives.

While it is true that professional rugby players should be able to get up for a big match every week, the reality is that both physically and psychologically that is sometimes impossible.

The Samoans put in some huge hits on England, but they also sustained some big hits themselves. It was clear from the opening minute of the match that the underdogs were expending a lot of emotional energy, and they kept up the passion and commitment for the entire 80.

It will take a massive effort on their part to lift themselves again for another huge match like the one against the Springboks just a few days later. The Boks would have had the advantage of being able to closely study the Samoan play in the England match, and even if the Samoan minds are willing, the bodies may just not be.

Bok coach Rudolf Straeuli has been criticised for fielding a different team against Georgia to the one that played against England, but he might have been right to give them a rest ahead of two tough games in the space of seven days (four in 21 days if they hope to go all the way).

In some ways England may have provided an example of the difficulties of lifting your game every weekend. It was former Bok centre Hennie le Roux who said during halftime of the Samoan/England game that the English appeared to be carrying a hang-over from the previous week's bruiser against the Boks.

Le Roux highlighted how the England backs, instead of moving forward onto the advantage line when they got the ball, tended to dally behind the gainline and indulged themselves in a lateral passing game. It was almost as if they were a little tentative about the thought of taking the big tackles.

The Samoans and the South Africans certainly gave England a rude introduction to the physical side of the southern hemisphere game. While they showed their class on both occasions to win comfortably in the end, there are more chinks evident now than there were two weeks ago in the World Cup favourites.

Generally the last few matches have tended to vindicate the view that it will be the teams with flair, rather than those who just rely on sound defensive efforts and kicking flyhalves, who will prevail at this World Cup.

The French have both - they have a forward pack which is aggressive and powerful, as well as backs that can use the possession to cut any opposing defence to pieces. They made mincemeat of a Scottish team that surprisingly seemed to have no other tactic than kicking for position.

It is for this reason many are seeing them as serious contenders, and it may be worth a flutter on a repeat of the 1999 World Cup final between Australia and France.

The French face their next big test when they play Ireland this week. Ireland edged home by one point against Argentina in the closest game of the tournament so far, but the Pumas will return home to Beunos Aires lamenting the fact they didn't possess more to their game than just a solid scrumming effort and sound tackling.

They had plenty of chances to score, particularly in the first half, but it was the Irish who possessed the greater flair players and they made full use of their opportunities when they were presented.

But while flair is rightly being trumpeted as the most needed ingredient at the World Cup, last weekend's games introduced a possible vagary that could still make nonsense of the theory.

The Friday and Saturday weather seemed particularly miserable and wet around Australia, and while no games were played in pouring rain, there was a lot of evidence of wet fields and slippery balls.

As it is early summer in Australia, dew could also prove a factor in turning some of the games into northern hemisphere type clashes. While most games will be played in the dry, one or two big ones could just be impacted negatively by the weather. In which case all predictions are off.

Sadly for the Boks, who do still appear a step or two behind the top nations in terms of skill, this will not be the case in next week's quarterfinal (no, for the reasons outlined above, they won't lose to Samoa) against New Zealand.

The roof over the stadium in Melbourne will ensure that it is dry, which is just the way the All Blacks like it. And is one of the reasons why someone like another former Bok centre, Dick Muir, says the South Africans have next to no chance of getting beyond the quarterfinal.