This game will have wider ramifications

There are several reasons why Saturday's long-awaited showdown between New Zealand and England in Wellington is the most important game that will be played outside of the World Cup itself.

It goes way beyond just where the two participating teams stand as they begin their final preparations for World Cup 2003 in Australia in October and November. South Africa, Australia and all the Six Nations sides should be watching this game almost as intensely as the fans and coaching staffs of the respective protagonists. For the game will answer several questions that may relate to their own chances of success in world rugby's showpiece event.

If ever there was a game that will unravel the perennial question about the relative strengths and weaknesses of north and south, then this is it. Unlike the clash at Twickenham last year, where England won narrowly despite winning almost all the ball, New Zealand will be at full strength.

The English media after that game made out that the All Black side was much closer to full strength than it actually was. One of their writers told me that he felt maybe 11 or 12 of the All Blacks had done enough on that tour to be starters at test level this season. But All Black coach has revealed that to be wishful thinking as he has retained just four survivors from the November match.

Had lock Norm Maxwell been fit, he may well have played ahead of Ali Williams, so bringing the number of returnees to just three. So immediately we can see why this game will be a far better indication of where the teams stand than in their previous meeting six months ago.

Related to that is the all-important question of timing, and this is the one that I am really interested in as we search for pointers on who to tip for World Cup success.

We in the southern hemisphere have been complaining for some time now that the annual north/south clashes give a distorted view of rugby strength as they invariably take place at the end of the southern hemisphere season.

It was because he knew that his top players were fatigued after a long season that Mitchell left so many New Zealand frontliners at home last year and it was a similar story with Rudolf Straeuli as the Springboks went to France, Scotland and England.

The Boks did look tired and jaded on their last overseas jaunt and Straeuli appeared to have some justification for his contention that it would be a different story if the English came and played these games on southern soil and in the southern season.

Well, now it is happening, and frankly, from what we have seen over the past few days, there may be some ominous signs for the southern teams.

The Scots, who featured pretty much the same team that had played most of the Six Nations, did not look tired at all when they played the Boks in Durban last Saturday. Indeed, it was they who looked more energetic in the first half and it was also them who finished the stronger of the two teams as the Boks clung to their narrow lead in the final minutes.

Coach Ian McGeechan was satisfied enough with the energy of his players that he hardly made any substitutions.

The England second string side, in beating the Moaris earlier this week, also carried few cobwebs or creaky joints onto the field with them. They dominated possession against a strong Maori side and sent a loud warning to any New Zealander who is complacent about this coming Saturday.

It would of course be a little hypocritical of the English if they lost in Wellington and then blamed the timing of their trip. They have seldom allowed the South Africans, Kiwis or Australians to get away with that excuse at Twickenham in the past four years.

Stephen Jones, the respected London Sunday Times scribe, would have sparked much mirth among southern readers when he wrote recently that England were making a mistake in undertaking this tour.

He argued that it was out of season, the England players were tired, and they were setting themselves up for an embarrasment that could have a big negative psychological impact on their buildup to the World Cup.

After all, England do not enjoy much of a record south of the equator, and if they lose to the Kiwis in these two tests it will make it difficult for them to imagine they can come back and do it in the World Cup.

But considering that it is an end of season trip for the English, what would it mean if they were to win this series? This is the worrying one for southern hemisphere teams, for as a Bok official said to me recently, a resounding victory for England on New Zealand soil could be enough to suggest they need just pitch up at the World Cup to claim their first global title.

An England win would certainly be a huge step forward for Martin Johnson's team, and not just because of the obvious boost in morale and confidence. If it is achieved with a fair measure of forward dominance, it should also spark a rethink among the brains-trust of the other teams, not least South Africa.

For as impressive as some of the South African forward play was in the recent Super 12, not least that of the Bulls and the Stormers, a nagging thought kept gnawing at me during the tournament: What you do against southern teams is no longer a good yardstick of how good your forwards are.

As some of the Bulls forwards who had done well in last year's Currie Cup discovered in Marseilles, Edinburgh and London last year, the real test comes when you go up against northern packs.

If the England big men are as impressive against the All Blacks as they were last time, then the rest of the teams must accept that they have to find some way of beating them that does not require forward parity.

The All Blacks showed at Twickenham last year that is possible. The English are vulnerable when you go at them wide, and New Zealand have the players to expose this weakness.

In this regard there is one small fact which may conspire against Saturday's game being a perfect indicator of what might happen in Australia in a few months from now. New Zealand, judging from how many top games have been played in the wet this year, appears to be having its wettest winter in several years.

The Moari game was played in the wet and the chances are the conditions will be heavy in Wellington too. Given where the Kiwi strength is at the moment, it may just be that they could be more potent on the dry fields of Sydney and Brisbane than they would be in "their" conditions.