The three games that will matter most to SA in 2003

When South African rugby steps into the new year, there will be just 10 months to go until the next World Cup. That means 10 months for the Springboks to make up the five places that currently seperate them from the top spot in the world pecking order.

As is the case with all World Cup years, 2003 will be defined by what happens in just one month. Forget about the Tri-Nations, forget the June tests against Scotland - it will all in the end come down to the couple of weeks over which the World Cup will be decided in Australia.

If the Boks win the Cup or even come close by making the final, the year 2003 will be remembered as a momentous one in South African rugby history. Failure will confirm the perception of those who believe the sport is on a precipitous downward slope.

So as we tread into January 2003, is there light at the end of the tunnel for long suffering South African fans? If you looked back at the last year purely from the vantage point of the final month of the season, you would have to agree with the doom merchants - there does seem little to look forward to.

In terms of statistics, the year 2002 was no better than 2001. Fewer than half of the matches played were won.

The only member of the so-called Big Five of world rugby to be beaten by the Boks were Australia on that incredibly exhilirating August afternoon at Ellis Park.

Yes, the Boks did play great running rugby in most of their matches before they stepped into yet another ill-fated mission to the northern hemisphere. But it would be a blind man who argues that the South Africans don't still have an awfully long way to travel in terms of defence and forward play before they can realistically be ranked among the pre-tournament favourites in Australia.

And it does not help to hide behind the "We are not playing the World Cup north of the equator" routine. Fact is the Bok record away from home is even worse than England's. The draw in Perth in 2001 was the closest the Boks have come to winning in Australia since they won there in 1998 and in the past while the Boks have achieved little away success against members of the Big Five.

But heck, my calendar tells me we are just a day away from New Year's eve, which is hardly the time for negativity and introspection.

The question was a simple one, so let's give it a straight answer - Yes, South Africa can win the World Cup in 2003. To explain my admittedly cautious optimism, you have to allow me to go backwards one last time. Back to June, to be precise. Ranked no better than seventh when the pre-tournament seeding was done, the South African under-21 team confounded friend and foe by winning the IRB World Cup.

Not only did they win it, they did it by beating both the heavily favoured New Zealand and Australian teams in the space of just four days.

There is a lot that can be taken to heart from the under-21 experience. Firstly, the tournament was won by a team which played to its strengths. Secondly, Jake White's side was the product of perhaps the most exhaustive selection process ever undertaken ahead of a South African rugby mission.

Nothing was spared in the quest to make sure that the Baby Boks would be made up of the best available players - old players were canvassed on their opinions and sometimes recruited as scouts, rugby experts from every corner of the country were consulted about the special talents that may lie untapped in their particular regions. Then followed a long sequence of trial matches and camps, with White and his leuitenants gradually whittling down the squad to the group that won the Cup.

The selectors were not afraid to look beyond the tried and tested, which was a trait that senior Bok coach Rudolf Straeuli also displayed regularly during the course of 2002.

Maybe the results suggest otherwise, but there were players who were blooded during the past year who could help the Boks trump the world before this next year has run its course.

It only came in sporadic busts, but South African rugby showed us enough in 2002 to suggest it does have the talent and it does have the expertise to go all the way.

What may be needed more than anything else is the right mindset. As the Boks discovered on their last visit to Twickenham, nothing is achieved by going out to hurt the opposition at the expense of playing the ball.

Already Straeuli has showed some encouraging signs by sending out an unambiguous message to some of the chief culprits. Likewise, it does not help to make too much of the effects of alien conditions and the various outside influences that inevitably play a part in the buildup to every test match.

Spending the week before a test match in Wellington (New Zealand) training in the milder climes and less hostile rugby environment offered by Australia does little more than suggest to the opposition that psychology may be fragile.

The Kiwis and their media may be an unhospitable bunch in the buildup to a test match but sooner or later you have to face them.

In the end the most sensible comment to come out of 2002 may have come from Baby Bok team manager Naas Botha.

Arriving late at a management meeting which concentrated on the need to pick up bonus points which would give the team the Welsh as semi-finalists rather than the feared young All Blacks, Botha forced a change of tack by pointing out a truth.

"If you want to be the best, you have to beat the best." So simple, so very true, and yet so easy to forget.

As in 1995, there may be low roads and high roads to the 2003 World Cup final.

Already South Africans and many English are regarding the clash of the two sides in Perth in an early pool match as a decider. But in the end it will all come down to besting the teams that they will face in the three matches which really matter - the quarterfinal, semi-final and final.