Super Three lead the way

Now that the eighth edition of the Super 12 is behind us, perhaps we should have some fun by figuring out where everyone would stand if it were a 10 year competition.

In order to establish my team of the decade, I have awarded teams points according to where they finished in each season of the competition.

Only semifinalists would qualify for points, and both the beaten semi-finalists, because coming third and fourth is not really that much better than coming fifth, will in each instance just be awarded one point.

Being the beaten finalist is a significant achievement, but not nearly as much as actually winning the competition. So the losing finalist gets two more points than the two beaten semifinalists, and the winner of the competition gets two more again.

In other words, five points for the winner, three for the losing finalist and one each for the two losing semifinalists.

What my calculations reveal is quite intriguing in telling us where the bulk of the southern hemisphere strength lies. For while the tournament is officially known as the Super 12, it could easily be referred to as the Super Three given how far the top trio are ahead of the rest.

Even though they have won the tournament only once against the thrice of the Blues and four times of the Crusaders, the Brumbies have been consistent enough challengers to be placed significantly higher up the table than the fourth placed Sharks.

The Durban team, by the way, are by far the most successful of the South African franchises in the Super 12, and their eight points against the two of the Cats and miserly solitary points picked up by the Bulls and the Stormers should end any pretence that it is otherwise.

The Sharks have played in two finals as against the four of the Brumbies, and they have also twice been knocked out in the semifinal stage. Making the play-offs in four out of eight attempts is significantly better than the Cats (twice), Stormers (once in seven starts) and the Bulls (once).

The Stormers missed out on competing in the Super 12 in 1997 as Western Province did not qualify for the tournament. Free State, the side that played ahead of WP that year, are one of only two sides to have competed in the Super 12 never to have played a semifinal.

There are no prizes for guessing that the other team never to have made it is the Chiefs, who have consistently been the poor country cousins of the other New Zealand teams.

But it is the composition of the top four, and where they stand in relation to one another, that tells the story of how Super 12 success translates into Tri-Nations success.

The top two teams are both New Zealand outfits, which may explain why the Kiwis have won twice as many Tri-Nations tournaments as the other two countries. The Australians, after starting slowly, have been up in New Zealand's league just recently, and this is shown by the Brumbies' membership of the elite three. But the Aussies as a whole are off the pace, as shown by their top team managing just third place.

South Africa have won the test level tournament only once, so it should not be surprising that their flagship, the Sharks, are languishing in fourth place. Significantly, however, the best year for the Boks, which was 1998, was also one of the better seasons for the Sharks.

With two years to go until the 10 are up (the SANZAR contract gets re-negotiated in 2005), realistically the battle for the team of the first decade is between the Blues and Crusaders. The Brumbies are simply too far behind the current leaders from Christchurch and would have to rely on them bombing quite badly from here.

While that is not completely beyond the realms of possibility if you consider that the Crusaders will be losing some stalwarts after the World Cup, the same holds true for the Brumbies.

George Gregan, Stephen Larkham, Owen Finegain and company have been around for forever and a day and the Brumbies chances of figuring strongly in the next two seasons will depend on excellent succession planning.

Indeed, if you look at where the top three teams are in relation to one another in terms of development, it might not be a bad bet to stake your earnings on the Blues finishing top of my little competition.

The Auckland franchise have successfully completed the rebuilding process which started the year after they ended their two year winning streak (1997).

Who knows, if the Brumbies and Crusaders take as long to rebuild as the Blues did, there might even be a gap for the likes of the Bulls and the Stormers to exploit in future seasons.

BATTLE FOR TEAM OF DECADE

Crusaders 23 pts (Four wins, one beaten final)
Blues 18 pts (Three wins, one beaten final)
Brumbies 15 pts (One win, three beaten finals, one beaten semi)
Sharks 8 pts (Two beaten finals, two beaten semis)
Highlanders 6 pts (One beaten final, three beaten semis)
Reds 3 pts (Three beaten semis)
Hurricanes 2 pts (Two beaten semis)
Cats 2 pts (Two beaten semis)
Stormers 1 pts
Bulls 1 pts
Waratahs 1 pts