Super 12 could herald Kiwi renaissance

Last year was a welcome relief for teams from South Africa and Australia as for once the New Zealanders failed to dominate the Super 12.

The three time champion Crusaders team had made a habit of leaving it late but in 2001 their comeback was just too belated for it to mean anything to their title challenge.

The Kiwis, who had provided the winner in all the previous five tournaments, could not even get a team into the semi-finals.

But with a change of coach at All Black level and a clean-out of old or dead wood across several levels of the game, I sense a giant stirring down south that could bode no good for the teams from the other two southern nations.

The Brumbies annexed the trophy for Australia last year (I got that one right) and judging from some of their early season form they are poised to mount yet another strong challenge.

Somehow though it is hard to see them just slipping into life under a new coach (David Nucifora) without a hiccup or two along the way and although they will make the semis, I will not be putting my money this year on them repeating last year's achievement.

This year the smart cash just has to go onto Crusaders, who have shed their team of some of the old timers and replaced them with some exciting new ones.

Former All Black captain Todd Blackadder has followed the lure of the pound and his face will be missed at post-match press conferences and television interviews.

Yet both the men who will play in his place this season have All Black test experience. Indeed, Chris Jack and Norm Maxwell were the second row pairing when the Kiwis faced Ireland in the big match of John Mitchell's first tour as coach.

In fact, a look at the composition of the All Black pack for that match gives some indication of the huge obstacle that the Crusaders will be to other teams in the competition, with no less than seven of the eight forwards coming from the Christchurch unit.

That includes the tremendously exciting new loose-forward unit of Scott Robertson, Richard McCaw and Reuben Thorne. But the most telling change to the Crusaders' chances could be the conversion of Aaron Mauger, who played much of last season ahead of Andrew Merhtens at flyhalf, into an inside centre.

If you look around the world you will notice that some of the finest inside centres are converted flyhalves, and Mitchell achieved some success when he moved Mauger there for the All Blacks during the tour of Britain.

With Merhtens now fit again after battling much of last season with an injury that impacted negatively on his form and confidence, the Crusaders should benefit from sound decision making in the key positions, not to mention the immaculate tactical kicking game of the experienced flyhalf.

The rest of the New Zealand teams appear to fall some way behind the Crusaders at this stage, but more because they are unknown quantities than because they clearly lack ability.

The Blues are a good example. They have shed the team of the experienced Robin Brooke, the longserving captain, as well as other former stalwarts such as Carl Reichelmann and Eroni Clarke. Big Joeli Vidiri might also be conspicuous for his absence on the wing.

Yet their early season form has suggested that they could be a dark horse and the talk out of Auckland at the moment is all positive.

They certainly pack plenty of clout in the front row, where Frenchman Christian Califano has been joined by former Highlander All Black Kees Meeuws.

New coach Peter Sloane, a former All Black assistant, has gathered around him an exciting team of young players that could just cause a few opposing teams to sit up and take notice.

The least predictable of all the teams is the Wellington Hurricanes. With Pita Alatini having moved from Otago to join Tana Umaga in the midfield, the Hurricanes do not lack firepower out wide. Christian Cullen is hoping to remain fit for the entire season after battling last year and then there is Jonah Lomu. Enough said.

It is at forward, however, that the Hurricanes have battled in recent years and it is for this reason that they are regarded in New Zealand as perennial under-achievers.

They finished eighth last year and should do the same again, but once again you can expect them to score some unexpected big wins over more fancied opposition, as they did last year to the Brumbies.

There will be a lot of South African interest in the Highlanders now that Laurie Mains is coaching them. Word from Dunedin is that Mains, as he did at the Cats, has built an impressive pack.

Yet one fancies that the loss of Alatini from the midfield might be critical as outside of the halfback pairing of Byron Kelleher and Tony Brown there is not too much going on at the back.

The Chiefs threatened for a semi-final place briefly last year but with Mitchell now coaching the All Blacks they will battle to keep up that momentum.

The Australian challenge will be fronted by the Brumbies, but expect the Reds, who despite the loss of John Eales remain brimful of experienced players, to mount their usual consistent but unostentatious challenge. I expect them to be among the semi-finalists once more.

The Waratahs showed pleasing progress under Bob Dwyer in the initial stages of last year and will be looking to build on that. But Sydneysiders should not be holding their breath.

Then we come to the South Africans. Last year Bob Skinstad, in announcing that he would remain in the Cape, listed among his reasons a belief that the Stormers were the best placed South African team to fulfill his cherished ambition of winning the Super 12.

Considering their achievement of winning the Currie Cup two years in a row, he may well have been right. But Skinstad probably reckoned without the slew of injuries that has decimated the team for the initial stages of the competition.

He is joined on the sidelines by further influential Springboks in Robbie Kempson, Robbie Fleck and Breyton Paulse. No side can afford to lose that sort of talent, particularly once you have added Chris Rossouw, Toks van der Linde and Neil de Kock to the list.

The Stormers do have talented replacements, with Johannes Conradie, who comes in for De Kock, being a case in point. Marius Joubert is not a shabby replacement for Fleck, while much is being expected of young recruit from the Free State, Daan Human.

Assistant coach Carel du Plessis may be right when he says the unknown factor could work in his team's favour. The Stormers have done a good job in recent years of throwing up new talent that goes on to challenge for Springbok places by the end of the tournament and this year could be no different.

Yet it is hard to see the Stormers ending better than mid-table, which considering the injuries might not be such a bad finish.

The team that will carry the South African flag this year will be the Sharks.

Although the injury to Trevor Halstead, which could keep him out for the first half of the tournament, is a big blow, the Sharks boast by far the greatest depth of the local teams.

They have been strengthened in some key areas, with the forwards probably adding up to the best pack in the competition, with only the Crusaders challenging them.

In the absence of Butch James there will be a huge responsibility on Gaffie du Toit, who must shed his reputation for temperamentalism this season if he ever hopes to fulfill his potential and become a regular first choice Springbok.

With James on the sidelines for the entire tournament the stage is set for Du Toit to make a full fist of the challenge. If he fires, the Sharks could well go one better than last year and win the competition.

As it is I expect them to easily reach the semi-finals and my crystal ball shows them facing Crusaders in the final at Jade Stadium, where the hosts will prevail in a much closer final than the one we saw at the Bruce Stadium in 2001.

What of the rest of the SA challenge? The Northern Bulls are certainly better than the 150 to one outsiders they have been made by some bookmakers Down Under.

Heyneke Meyer started stirring a giant at the Blue Bulls last year and with the other provincial teams in that region also having completed impressive 2001 Currie Cup seasons, the Springbok forward coach has greater depth to work with than was enjoyed by some of his predecessors.

I take them to win enough games to finish eighth or ninth.

Sadly the team destined for Cinderella status this year might well be the Cats, who have lost too many players at a time when they have also seen a changing of the guards with regards to the coach.

For what it is worth, here is my prediction for the coming season:

1. Crusaders
2. Sharks
3. Brumbies
4. Reds
5. Blues
6. Stormers
7. Highlanders
8. Hurricanes
9. Northern Bulls
10. Waratahs
11. Chiefs
12. Cats