Stats confirm SA's superiority

Springbok captain John Smit was wise to add a cautionary note, but you can take it now as official – South Africa leads rugby in the southern hemisphere, and by consequence, the world.

It was a year of unprecedented success for local rugby in the Super 14, and the appearance of the Sharks and the Bulls in Saturday’s final confirms that this country is now the leader.

This is not to say that the Boks will win the World Cup. As Smit reminded us after the Durban semifinal, doing well in the regional competition does not always translate into success at test level.

“In 1998 Gary Teichmann’s Springbok team won the Tri-Nations, but it was after one of South Africa’s worst ever Super 12 seasons,” said Smit.

“It is great to do well in the Super 14, but this is just the beginning of the season. There are many more challengers and competitions to come.”

Indeed, if you do take a look back at 1998, you will notice something else that should temper the wave of expectation and enthusiasm flooding the country. It was a year where the New Zealanders dominated the Super 12, with two Kiwi finalists. But the All Blacks bombed in the Tri-Nations, losing all their matches for a last placed finish.

Getting combinations right and the national team to synchronise is though the task of the Springbok coach over the coming months. There is a small margin for error at international level, and a lot of games are nip and tuck, with one mistake or moment of inspiration deciding the result.

This was certainly the case in 1998, for it may be recalled that while New Zealand lost all their matches in the Tri-Nations and in the Bledisloe Cup, with a bit of good fortune they could probably have won almost all of them. Remember for instance their match against the Boks in Durban, where they squandered a 23-5 advantage going into the final quarter.

The finishing order of the Super 14, and the records racked up during the tournament, do however show that South African rugby is strong again, and that White has a good base and platform to work off.

As Sharks coach Dick Muir has said, there is definitely “something brewing in South African rugby”, and a look at the statistics from the competition, particularly in comparison to past seasons, bears this out.

For a start, the two wins in the semifinals this past weekend meant that the season ended with the New Zealanders managing only one win on South African soil. That was the Crusaders' victory over the Cheetahs in Bloemfontein early in the competition. The Cheetahs also drew with the Chiefs, but otherwise it was a year of unprecedented success against Kiwi teams, with 12 wins in 14 home matches.

The record away from home was still poor, but three wins in 13 starts was a much better harvest than in some seasons, and certainly better than the Kiwi record in South Africa over the past three months.

The overall record against foreign teams this season was an impressive 26 wins against 19 losses, with that one draw, while the threat to the New Zealand hegemony was underlined by South Africa’s 15 wins against 11 by the Kiwis.

South Africa’s nine wins against 14 defeats on foreign soil was significantly better than previous years. South African teams won six matches against Australian teams on Australian soil and only lost four.

The statistics, let it be added, are also skewed a bit by the poor performance of the Cheetahs. The Bloemfontein side did not beat a New Zealand team this season, but the other South African teams all boasted more wins than losses. The Sharks won four in five matches against New Zealand teams, giving them an 80% success rate, and the Bulls, Lions and Stormers all managed three wins in five starts for 60%.

And as the Bulls and the Sharks provide the bulk of the Springbok squad, the combined record of these two teams is significant – sevens wins in ten matches.

With the World Cup just around the corner, this dramatic turn-around in South Africa’s Super 14 fortunes could not have been better timed.