Some reasons to sit on the fence

Nick Mallett won’t be getting any award for bravery or for his soothsaying abilities following his pronouncement after last week’s match between the Italians and the Springboks.

The Italy coach of course knows South African rugby better than most “foreign” coaches. This time 10 years ago he was still the Springbok coach, and it wasn’t that long ago that the former Western Province and Bok No8 was effectively the director of rugby in the Cape.

So he was always going to be the right person to ask about the Bok chances of winning the Tri-Nations. And judging from the reports filtering back from East London, he did not disappoint as he pleased the South Africans by saying that the Boks must start favourites to win this year’s Tri-Nations.

But that was hardly rocket science. If ever there was a year where one team should start as clear favourites to win the Tri-Nations it is this one, with the depth of the South African game being underlined by the ease with which the Bulls and Stormers saw off the overseas challenge en route to the Super 14 final.

It’s more though than just the Super 14 that makes Mallett’s prediction predictable and which will probably leave him good company once the Tri-Nations starts. Mallett would have seen how the New Zealanders struggled with the rolling maul during the Super 14 season, he would also have seen how the Bok physicality dominated their opponents in last year’s Tri-Nations.

And when you take a look at the make-up of the Bok team you don’t even need to have seen them play just recently to feel confident they should win the Tri-Nations. Even without Fourie du Preez they still have a massive number of caps between the collective and half the players in the probable starting team challenge for the tag of the best in the world in their position.

Add to that the winning habit that the Boks have picked up over the past few years, and the winning feeling of the several key players who were also part of successful Super 14 campaigns. Winning against New Zealand teams and in New Zealand just isn’t a remarkable feat anymore – ask the Stormers, who beat all five Kiwi teams by 12 points or more.

Then there is the leadership. John Smit has won a World Cup, he has captained the Boks for yonks. He knows a bit about this captaincy gig. And so does Victor Matfield, who has now won the Super 14 title three times, equalling the record previously shared by just two New Zealanders, Ruben Thorne and Richie McCaw.

Coming to think of it, Schalk Burger, after his good season in charge of the Stormers, has also developed into a fine leader. So is last year’s Stormers captain, Jean de Villiers.

It is the mention of De Villiers though that introduces the list of reservations that stops me from stating unequivocally that this will be a year where the Tri-Nations trophy will stay with the holders. For while De Villiers is the best inside centre in the world, are we sure that his namesake, Springbok coach Peter, will field him in his best position?

He played wing in the last match against Italy and outside centre in the first. To my mind De Villiers and Jaque Fourie have to team up again and resume their winning partnership, no question about it. But what was De Villiers doing on the wing last week? And why was Ruan Pienaar the man who came on as the replacement fullback?

Frans Steyn was the man who won the Tri-Nations finale in Hamilton last year for the Boks. He is not there this time because he has not been selected. That is a concern, for the game in Hamilton was close enough for it to have probably gone the other way had Steyn not been present to kick those massive penalties that mark him as a player with undeniable X-factor.

Steyn brings more than just his big place-kicking boot, and his positional play, his strength in the tackle and his field kicking played more than just a bit part in laying the platform for the Boks during the home leg of last year’s Tri-Nations. Leaving him out, for whatever reason, is a mistake.

And then there is the man who has not been left out volitionally, but was ruled out by injury. We are referring to Fourie du Preez, who ended the Super 14 season with the announcement that he was going to undergo an operation.

Du Preez’s genius as a decision maker and the length of his field kicks was even more influential than Steyn in the 2009 Tri-Nations. He is going to be missed, and this at a time when the All Blacks have their version of Du Preez, flyhalf Dan Carter, fit again and back in his best form.

The incoming tour games grew the Bok squad, but for me they didn’t completely answer all the questions that required asking. It is why while I will acknowledge that the Boks should win the Tri-Nations again, I am not yet prepared to bet my house on it.