Saying it with a straight face

Sorry to disappoint those who like to see rugby writers make idiots of themselves by predicting the unpredictable and listing all the Super 12 teams in the order of their anticipated finish.

The lesson was learned last year. Some might remember that after doing the pre-season crystal-ball gazing thing, I had to adjust my predictions after the first two weeks. My argument then was that you had to see teams play before you could really make a learned prediction, and I will stick to that now.

There is a good reason for this. Sport is unpredictable, but the Super 12 is more unpredictable than most sporting events. You can take last year as an example.

Before the 2004 edition of the Super 12 began, many would have made the Blues racing certainties to retain their trophy. They had won it so convincingly the previous season that it was really hard to see how anyone could knock them off their pedestal.

What was not reckoned on by the critics, however, was the impact that the departure of coach Graham Henry was going to have on the Aucklanders, plus the way that a few injuries to key men upset the dynamics of the Blues team.

These are things that you can only really foresee if you have an intimate knowledge of the region/franchise in question and interact on a daily basis with the officials and players from that area. So while it may not have surprised the men and women of Auckland, the Blues’ failure to even make the semi-finals was a huge shock to me, as was the 50 point defeat they suffered to the Stormers.

Mention of the Stormers brings us to another example of unpredictability. Hands up all those who thought last year that the Bulls would be South Africa’s top team, and not the Stormers. Well, it was one thing I got right, but you can never really tell with the Cape side.

On their day they beat the best in the world, as they did in the Blues’ own back-yard, but on others, such as when they lost unexpectedly to the Hurricanes in Cape Town and were so darn awful against the Chiefs in Roturua, they come close to challenging for the title of worst in the world.

Despite that unpredictability and lack of consistency, the Stormers still finished third.

They have several players who were part of South Africa’s triumph in the Tri-Nations, and on that basis, you have to say they have as good a chance of going all the way as any South African team has for a good couple of years.

But there are questions which make it hard to put your head on the block, and one of those questions revolves around what will become of the Stormers if they suffer injuries at lock. I have a hunch that someone like young Andries Bekker might come through and surprise a few people this year, and Ross Skeate, when he returns, has a lot of potential.

Yet I won’t bet my house on these things.

And it is the same with the Bulls. The Pretoria team have something going for them this year that they didn’t have in the last two: The continuity which comes with playing under the same coach in the Super 12 as they do in the Currie Cup.

Make no mistake, Heyneke Meyer will bring stability. He is a gifted coach, particularly when it comes to forward play, and he has put systems in place at the Bulls which have ensured the sort of depth that most other unions/regions can only marvel at.

Under Meyer, there will also be no ambiguities when it comes to playing pattern. The systems have worked in the Currie Cup, the players know what they have to do. Derrick Hougaard has always played better for Meyer than he has for any other coach.

Yet a question mark has to remain in place for the simple reason that all Meyer’s success has been achieved so far in the Currie Cup. Will the pattern which has won the Currie Cup for the past three years suffice in the Super 12?

That is not a negative comment on Meyer’s coaching ability, but just an acknowledgement that he has not been there yet (well, at least not since the disastrous 2002 season), and until he has, all the hype about the Bulls’ chances has to remain in the realms of the hen-house and chickens trying to hatch. It is a fact that in the Super 12 experience of the competition does count for something.

So while I am optimistic about the Bulls’ chances of making it to the semis this year under Meyer, we also have to reluctantly admit at this stage that here is an unknown quantity. Hopefully in three weeks time, once the Bulls have played a few games overseas, we will be able to take away the question marks.

I must say though that I am a lot more optimistic about the South African chances than in previous years and a side-bet on two local teams making the semis for the first time since 2001 is well worth it. It is when you ask me to predict the winner of the competition, and the finishing order, that I am flummoxed.

Both of the other two South African regional teams pack potential. For my money, the Sharks are going to cause a few upsets, both home and away. Their inexperience should prevent you from betting on them making the semis, but they came a lot closer to the top four last year than would have been predicted at the start of the season. For them, as Nick Mallett says, it could all hinge on Butch James and Craig Davidson.

The Cats, apart from lots of young playing talent, have a combination of the most astute young rugby brains in the country in their coaching staff. Its good to see Brendan Venter doing what he should be doing (not that there is anything wrong with healing people for a living!) and Rassie Erasmus and Chester Williams are both innovative coaches with lots of ideas.

Turning to the other teams, the Brumbies have lost some key players and will be hard pressed to retain their trophy. But then both they and the Crusaders have been outstanding down the years when it comes to succession planning, and you may find the newcomers fit in like experienced veterans.

If you were forced to bet on anything, put your money on these two teams being challengers again. Historical precedent does seem to mean something in the Super 12, and the Crusaders and Brumbies have been there or there abouts more often than the other teams.

The only other team to win the competition has been the Blues. Hugh Bladen said on Boots and All the other night that if he had R1000 to blow, he would put it on the Blues. I would go along with that. And if someone gave me R100 to play with, I would divide it equally on the Stormers and the Bulls, who both have the material to make it to the semis.

Last year we saw the Springboks claim the Tri-Nations title most unexpectedly. Don’t bet too much against something similar happening in the Super 12. For the first time in years, we can talk about South African Super 12 title aspirations, and do so with a straight face.

And if you are desperately keen to have a chronological prediction, listing this year's Super 12 teams in order of finishing position, don't despair. You will hear more from me with regards to how this year's Super 12 will pan out once I have consulted a psychic ...