Revising predictions based on early evidence

Making a prediction two weeks in about how the Super 12 will turn out may be a little stupid. It is like watching the Comrades Marathon runners come through the 30 kilometre mark and predicting from those positions how they will finish.

The Super 12 is an intense and arduous competion, with a high attrition rate. With just one bye in 12 weeks, there is little time for recovery and just a few knocks can blow a team out the water.

But making a prediction a fortnight in is probably a lot more intelligent than doing it before a ball has been kicked in anger. When the teams haven't even played yet, what do you really have to go on?

After two weeks, it is clear that some of my pre-season predictions will be wide of the mark. I will stick by my assertion that the Blues will win it. After their hiccup against the Brumbies, they started to run into form against the Crusaders.

The Crusaders will be hard pressed to match the second place I predicted for them. They are notoriously slow starters, so their fans won't be too concerned at the moment, but the problem for them is that they have lost two matches at home.

Yet I still expect the Crusaders to sneak into the last four on the basis of the depth they possess in their squad and the fact they are a team that can embark on a six or seven match winning sequence. They have also now already played two of the top teams in this year's competition, the Waratahs and the Blues.

Ah, the Waratahs, what of them? Rather embarrassingly, I had them finishing well out of the placings. This was on the say-so of a Sydney journalist who reckoned that "they will be there only to make up the numbers this year as this is a rebuilding period for them".

But although there are areas where they have new players and changed combinations, most of these new players are experienced campaigners and the combinations appear to have been improved.

Tim Donnelly looks the business at flyhalf, while the arrival of Justin Harrison and Dan Vickermann has made a massive difference to their pack. They have the opposite problem to the Crusaders in that they tend to start quickly and then fade, but this year they should have enough in the tank to at least make the semi-finals.

The same has to be said for the Brumbies. The Canberra side were among my initial list of semi-finalists, and have confirmed that the retention of old campaigners like Finegan, Gregan, Larkham and Mortlock means the chore of their successful side of the past remains intact.

However, even though they beat the Blues in the opener, I still reckon that they are more likely to finish in the higher placings than as winners. So those are the four semi-finalists as we look at it from the vantage point of week three. Who are the other contenders?

The Hurricanes have already lost two games. They remain one of the most unpredictable teams around, though, and if they beat the Stormers on Saturday they will be right back in it. Like the Crusaders, they can embark on a prolonged winning sequence, and they have yet to play at home.

The Highlanders got a high rating first time around, but the unknown team pushed out in the first weeks has sent out a mixed message. They were good against the Reds, but I sensed at the time that some of our commentators were making too much of their win in the wet of Invercargill. I think they will finish in the bottom half.

The Chiefs were ranked quite highly before the start of the season and the introduction of Byron Kelleher and one or two others has given them backbone. But I don't see them challenging for a semi-final spot.

The Stormers and the Bulls remain the best South African bets for a semi-final spot, and both of them do stand a chance of making the play-offs.

But if you value your possessions it would still be wiser to bet against it. The Stormers have question marks over their depth and the wheels could come off if injuries make themselves felt.

In my pre-season prediction I tipped them as the top South African side, and I stand by that on the basis that they have the most settled combinations, the most experience and are probably best equipped to win in New Zealand and Australia.

But the Bulls have more depth and if they can add some intelligence to all that brute strength they could prove me wrong. I now envisage a higher finish for both those South African teams than first predicted.

The other South African teams will be among the bottom third, although the Sharks could be more competitive than first predicted and probably won't finish last.

Reviewed predictions for Super 12 finishers: 1. Blues, 2. Brumbies, 3. Waratahs, 4. Crusaders, 5. Stormers, 6. Bulls, 7. Hurricanes, 8. Highlanders, 9. Chiefs, 10. Reds, 11. Sharks, 12. Cats.

Initial prediction: 1. Blues, 2. Crusaders, 3. Brumbies, 4. Hurricanes, 5. Highlanders, 6. Waratahs, 7. Stormers, 8. Bulls, 9. Reds, 10. Cats, 11. Chiefs, 12. Sharks.