Put your money on the Kiwis

There was a temptation to avoid making pre-season predictions this year on the basis that it is a sure way to set yourself up as the village idiot.

This is never more so than when you a crystal-ball gazing into the Super 12, a competition notorious for delivering upsets, unbelievable form swings and frequently the grave-yard of what, on paper at least, should be extremely competent rugby teams.

But then when I looked back at the previous two years and saw that on both occasions I at least got the winners right, I decided I might as well give it another crack. Not that there is anything particular brave about predicting that the Crusaders will win the Super 12 again this year.

In the seven years since the tournament's inception, the team from Christchurch have won four times - a better than 50% success rate, which suggests there should not be much payback for punters who send their money in that direction.

The Crusaders won last year because they have the greatest depth and they have retained most of that depth. Ben Blair, the excellent reserve fullback and a more than capable goalkicker when Andrew Mehrtens is not around, is out with injury, but they have regained the services of flanker Bruce Thorn.

They won all their league games last year as well as their play-off matches, so what more needs to be said. Yes, their feeder team Canterbury did bomb out in the NPC, but that might be irrelevant as fatigue must have played a part after a year where the Crusaders as a team virtually just changed from their Super 12 outfit into an All Black one when the international season arrived.

The Brumbies slipped a bit last year and, judging from pre-season results, they could slip a little further. Their drubbing at the hands of the Highlanders certainly suggests that the latter will hit the tournament running and it is not inconceivable that we will once again see an all Kiwi Super 12 final in a rugby year which may well end up belonging to New Zealand.

Okay, let's hold the World Cup predictions until later in the year. For now though it may be necessary to observe that apart from the Crusaders and Highlanders (the latter have Anton Oliver back), New Zealand also has two other potential tournament winners in the Blues (Auckland are the new NPC champs) and the Hurricanes.

The last mentioned remain the tournament's perennial under-achievers and as they have not gained significantly where it counts most, at forward, I expect them to be so again. But they have beaten all the big teams at least once in the past two years and when they are hot, they are very hot.

A team which boasts a backline which includes Jonah Lomu, Christian Cullen, Tana Umaga and Pita Alatini simply has to be taken seriously. But the Hurricanes are not Crusaders and therefore fall into the bracket of teams that could just as easily end fourth or 11th.

It is when you get to the middle of the log finishers that predictions really become a lottery as a few 50/50 results here and there can make the difference between being contenders or also-rans.

For instance, in 2001 I thought the Sharks would finish near the bottom and they ended up playing in the final. The previous year I thought they had enough talent to come top and they ended last.

I had a similar experience last year with the Waratahs, who saved the miserable rugby that I expected of them for the last two games. The tournament's surprise package of 2002 blew it by conceding almost 100 points to the Crusaders in the final league game and then being thumped by 50 by the Brumbies.

The Sydneysiders could be contenders again this year, yet they have problems at forward which could see them drop back to their former position in the bottom third of the log. That is what I am betting on.

As far as the South African teams are concerned, history has shown that so much depends on the first game. The two South African teams that win on derby weekend invariably end up being the side that flies the flag.

I like the look of the Sharks backline this year, but the early season results suggest they are going to battle to replace Mark Andrews, while Ollie le Roux and John Smit are needed back immediately. Warren Britz was also a big one to lose, even if only because he boasts so much more experience than Luke Watson and Roland Bernard.

But while it would be wishful thinking to predict a semi-final finish for the Sharks at this stage, that could well be the case if they upset the Stormers at Newlands on Friday night - not an impossible ask by any means.

The Stormers, if they get through that difficult opening hurdle, should be the top South African team, and I say this only because they are the team I am closest to and I have seen the huge amount of work that has been put in.

Like the Crusaders, the poor domestic form displayed by the feeder team (WP) last year might be irrelevant. Indeed, it could even be an advantage in that it appears to have stiffened the resolve of the Cape men.

For my money the Stormers have more depth than they have boasted in previous seasons, particularly at forward. Ironically, an injury to one of the frontliners could lead them battling in the midfield, where in previous years they have boasted a glut of talent.

If the Stormers can somehow manage to win two matches on the road, which I fancy they may do (tip them for wins over the Waratahs and Hurricanes), then they would have laid the platform for a repeat of 1999, where they embarked on a glorious winning streak in successive home matches which took them into the semis.

However, they may well find themselves playing the Cats for a place in the semi-finals. I know they did not impress in the pre-season, but I have huge respect for Bob Skinstad as a captain and motivator and he could well be the catalyst for the Cats.

So what of the Bulls? I do think they will improve this year, but then how could they possibly be any worse. By the end of the competition, and provided the old-timers (by which I refer to ex-players, not Joost) do not upset everything by trying to lynch Rudy Joubert for not being Heyneke Meyer, they could be playing a style of rugby more suitable to the Super 12.

But if they are not going to finish last again, they better hope that the many defections that have rocked the Chiefs franchise this year have the debilitating effect many Kiwi critics appear to be anticipating.

The Bulls must also become as formidable in Pretoria as the Chiefs are whenever they play to the accompaniment of the moolloo cowbells in Hamilton.

I strongly suspect my top three will be fairly accurate, as will the bottom two. The rest will be a bit of a lottery. There are so many good teams and some of them will end up finishing much lower than their talent would suggest.

The Sharks, with a bit of luck, could easily finish fourth, but I have them ninth. For what it is worth, here is my prediction of how the teams will finish in the 2003 Super 12:

1. Crusaders
2. Highlanders
3. Brumbies
4. Stormers
5. Reds
6. Cats
7. Waratahs
8. Blues
9. Sharks
10. Hurricanes
11. Northern Bulls
12. Chiefs