Much promise, but don't forget 1998

Some of the New Zealand scribes were quite honest about the sense of foreboding they feel for the All Blacks following the South African demolition job of their franchises in the Super 14.

Considering the amount of travel the Crusaders had to in order to get to their Soweto semi-final date with the Bulls, there was a surprising amount of optimism coming from across the Tasman Sea about their chances.

I suppose it was because of the way they played in their league match at Loftus a few weeks back. That was a match they could have, maybe even should have won. It was at Loftus, so the fact the Bulls were being forced to move to Soweto, meaning that in theory it would be a leveller, was good justification to think the Crusaders might do it this time.

There is also the not insignificant fact that the Crusaders are seven times champions, although that is often an over-used justification for thinking they are going to win everything. The Crusaders remain one of the better teams in the Super 14, and certainly the best Kiwi team in the competition, but they are not the Crusaders of old.

The main problem for the Crusaders, though, was the travel factor, plus the New Zealand penchant for playing against the likes of the Bulls, and for that matter the Springboks, with a strategy that can best be described as suicide.

All that side to side running against the Bulls at Orlando Stadium just played into their opponents hands, and was reminiscent of the All Blacks against the Springboks in Durban last year. Unsurprisingly, the Crusaders suffered a similar result to the one sustained by their national team last August.

Regardless of what the reasons were, the Crusaders got well beaten, and the loss added to a miserable tally for New Zealand teams against South Africa in this year’s Super 14. In the final analysis, this is how it reads – played 26, won 10, drawn one, lost 15. As I reminded last week, that includes the five losses of a Lions team that were non-starters in the tournament in 2010.

The Kiwis recognise this, and judging from what is coming out on the internet from New Zealand, there is recognition that like 2009, this year could be the year of the Springbok in the Tri-Nations. Certainly in a year where the two top teams in the competition are South African, and by some distance, you would say there should be an expectation of victory in the three nation tournament.

What the Stormers and the Bulls have proved over the past three months is that this country has the talent to dominate. The raw material that used to be wasted is being converted by good coaching at franchise level into the real deal.

I heard someone say the other day that the team coached by Allister Coetzee is the best coached team in world rugby, and they might not have been far wrong. Certainly the Stormers, talented though their players may be, are more than the sum of their parts – and massive credit must be given to both Rassie Erasmus and Coetzee for what they have achieved.

That though is where we have to introduce a note of sobriety as we look ahead at the international season. Success beckons once more for the Boks, but the last end of season tour showed us how spectacularly it can go wrong when the right players are not selected or other mistakes are made.

Let’s not forget that South Africa won the Tri-Nations for the first time in 1998, a year where there was only one team in the top four of the Super 12 in the form of the Sharks – and they were significantly off the pace.

New Zealand dominated the competition, yet when it came to the Tri-Nations, they struggled to select the right combination – and ended up losing every game and were wooden spoonists.

The selection of the under-strength team to play Wales in Cardiff showed just how much talent there is in this country. There is depth that other countries can only envy. It needs to be moulded together properly though, so let’s wait and see how the Bok management and selectors go about it before we buy into the current wave of Kiwi apprehension.