Maybe Kiwi hegemony can be challenged

In a recent story penned from the northern hemisphere, it was reported that some of the senior officials at the International Rugby Board were concerned at the wide gulf that has developed between New Zealand and the rest of the top tier nations.

This concern was used as justification for why even established rugby countries were being helped in terms of finances by the world body. I don’t have a complaint against that, and neither would I deny that New Zealand are some distance out in front at the start of this World Cup year.

What is more contentious though is any assertion that rugby is the only sporting code that faces this problem. The way the Australian cricket team are playing at the moment, I would argue that they may be even more dominant in the summer game than the Kiwis are in the winter one played with the oval ball.

At least the All Blacks do occasionally get tripped up, and remain vulnerable when they travel to South Africa and face a team that can challenge them physically. I have a hunch it may change now that Shane Warne and Glenn McGrath have retired, but I am not so sure that the Aussie team that swept to a 5-0 Ashes victory would be vulnerable anywhere on the planet or to any team when in that form.

Note that I am talking about Australia in the longer test match version of the game of cricket, not the limited overs variety, where just occasionally they seem to exhibit the same weakness as that I detect in New Zealand rugby – that of having too much talent to choose from and thus being unable to settle completely on their best combination.

You do sometimes get the impression that for New Zealand everything has for quite a while now assumed the status of a prolonged trial for the World Cup, which is why we have seen so much mixing and matching and rotation of selection from the All Black coach Graham Henry.

So far they have got away with it just because there is so much rugby talent in their country that they can get away with it. But is it just possible that all this concentration on the World Cup, and one big event, could backfire on them in that it will place too much pressure on the players when September rolls around?

I have got the impression at previous World Cups that the All Blacks, with such a massive weight of expectation from a nation starved of success in this particular tournament, may have been victim to the dreaded choker phenomenon.

Certainly both in 1999 and 2003 they should have gone further than they did, losing out in the end in one-off games to teams who were just up for it on the day. In neither instance, France in 1999 or Australia in 2003, did their conquerors go on to win the tournament.

Watching some of the early pre-season games ahead of the Super 14, it has become possible to imagine that South Africa may at a push have what it takes to challenge the All Black hegemony when it matters.

The Springboks did so in 2004, in Jake White’s first season in charge, and there is one similarity between now and then that could work in South Africa’s favour: most of the big players in the South African game are coming back from a rare extended rest.

In 2004 the unexpected Springbok success in the Tri-Nations was at least partially ascribed to the fact that so many of the players had started the year fresh after a decent off-season break (the World Cup challenge had ended in the first week of November and of course there was no end of year tour).

Perhaps there is an element of wishful thinking, but the broad spectrum of South African players do seem to be in better physical condition than they have been at the start of previous seasons. The All Blacks are resting in the early stages of the Super 14, but many of the top Boks have been away from the field since last August.

They have returned looking in excellent condition and, most importantly, hungry to play. They might just be able to use the southern hemisphere competition to pick up the momentum that will carry them through to a successful World Cup.

South Africa has a long history of failure in the Super 14, and the travel bogey is a massive disadvantage, but the country does have the talent and memories of 2001, when both the Sharks and the Cats made the semis, suggest it is not impossible.