Jury still out on SA Super 12 prospects

If the calculations are correct, and a fair sprinkling of the people who have responded to the latest Supersportzone poll also read this column, there may be as many as 30 people reading this who believe all four South African teams will be making the Super 12 semi-finals this season.

To them the message is a simple one: There is absolutely nothing I can do for you. The Cats may be set to change their coach, but it would require intervention from a supreme deity to turn them into a side capable of winning the remaining six matches. And even if that was possible, how can they advance without hurting the prospects of the other local teams?

The new optimism sweeping South African rugby is also evidenced in the much larger group who believe that this will be the season that we get an unprecedented three teams into the group of four that contests the semis.

This is more believable than the all-South African semi-final theory, but it is also pie in the sky. South Africa won’t get more than two teams into the semis. Indeed, I am still not entirely convinced that we will even get one. What?!! I can sense the outrage, particularly from those who have sent me emails accusing me of negativity.

These last mentioned people have probably gone into this column hoping for an amendment on the last one, which said that we should not be getting too carried away too quickly. But after due consideration, and I admit a certain willingness to kowtow to the popular view and jump on the bandwagon (winning teams are good business), I have decided that the central message of the last column must remain the same. In other words, let’s just wait and see and make a decision on the success or failure of this year’s Super 12 nearer the time that the semi-finals are played.

This is not negativity, but just a desire to hold back on the euphoria and avoid joining those lemmings who one week leave Newlands thinking the Stormers will win the Super 12 and then the next week call for them all to be sacked.

My view at the start of the season was never quite in line with that of most doom merchants: The Stormers were going to be competitive and would not finish last, but they would lose too often to end higher than mid-table and won’t make the semis. That remains my prediction.

We are near the halfway mark, but there is still a long way to travel yet. Yes, there were signs of more consistency last week in that the Bulls and the Sharks completed the feat of winning two in a row. Credit must be given where credit is due, and the Bulls, after copping so much flak for the way they approached the wet weather Highlanders game, have put it together since then.

The Sharks are probably the revelation of the competition so far. You wouldn’t have had too many Durbanites prepared to bet on their team winning one match on the road, let alone three.

The pack which everyone expected to be overpowered has confounded the critics, and Kevin Putt and Balie Swart have done wonders with the defence. Two of the wins were by just one point and could easily have gone the other way, but then in winning the close games they showed me that they have rediscovered what is required to win the close ones: temperament.

But here is where I part with those chanting the chorus of the childhood song “Happy days are here again”. The Bulls, like the Stormers, have done no better at this stage of the season than I would have expected them to.

They won a game that I expected them to lose when they beat the Waratahs a few days ago, but then that cancelled out their defeat to the Sharks in the opener and the draw against the Highlanders.

The Bulls won most of their home games last year and should have been expected to do so again. The only difference between this year and last, when they finished two places outside of the semis, is that this season they have started at home whereas last year they travelled first. The home record is almost identical.

Although there are unmistakeable signs that the Bulls team is maturing, there is still a question mark over how they will fare overseas. If you take seven wins as the target you need to aim at to make a semi-final, all three South African teams are still some way short of being able to say that they have seen the mythical fat lady burst into song.

For the Bulls to win four of their remaining six games (okay, three and a half because their other result was a draw), they are going to have to score at least two wins at venues where they have never been victorious before. That includes Newlands, as well as Christchurch, Brisbane and Auckland (We can assume they will probably beat the Cats and they must start as favourites against the Chiefs).

The Stormers face an almost identical run-in to the close of the season. Unlike the Bulls, they have tasted victory in Auckland (2000), but have always been on the wrong end of the result in Brisbane and Christchurch.

They finish up against the Sharks in Durban, where they have won on their last two visits in the Super 12, but this year it will be in the week after returning from overseas, so introducing jetlag as a possible debilitating factor.

Even the Sharks, who have played all their away games and thus look best placed of all the South African teams, should not automatically assume that their May date with the Stormers will be in the buildup to a semi-final.

They have outdone themselves so far and have probably already guaranteed a pass mark for this year’s campaign. But when it comes to them actually winning the competition, how many times so far have you thought “Wow, that was great, they look like potential champions!”

And those who believe the Sharks are unbeatable at home ought to go take a look at the record books.

So far so good, but there is a long way to travel yet...