It's a gamble either way

The Stormers really messed that one up. So did the Crusaders.

Different results in Pretoria and Durban in last weekend’s round of Super 14 fixtures would have delivered what 50 000 people decided as long ago as the end of March that they desperately wanted – a dream Super 14 league decider between the old northern rivals at Newlands.

When the Bulls scored their late try to effect an Houdini-like escape against the Crusaders, it slightly diminished the chances of the match being about which team finished top of the log. It meant that the Stormers had to beat the Sharks to stay in touch.

They didn’t beat the Sharks and the upshot was that the Bulls finished in a position where the Cape Town match could not have an impact on their final log standing. Newlands ceased to be meaningful for the Bulls other than offering an 80 minute opening for possible injuries ahead of the semifinals and the possibility of conceding a psychological advantage to a team that has been in formidable home form.

On top of that, the Bulls would have come to Cape Town knowing that victory for them would probably condemn the Stormers to a fourth placed finish. That would mean instead of facing a possible return clash with a Crusaders team that has just completed a journey to Christchurch, and would then have to come back again, they would end up playing the Stormers in the semifinals.

A Stormers team that would have to face less than two hours of flying time, and with the semifinal due to be played on a ground which will be as alien to them as their opponents. So where would be the advantage in finishing top of the log in such a scenario?

Unless one of the teams has to travel a great distance, this is an occasion where there almost isn’t any. So what did the Bulls have to gain from the Newlands match? In a word, nothing.

You cannot blame the New Zealanders and Australians for being angry at the Bulls decision to send a B team to Newlands. One of the beauties of sport is the way it makes us so one-eyed in a our view of things.

Had the roles been reversed, and the Waratahs were sending an under-strength team to play a Brumbies side vying with the Bulls and Stormers for a place in the semis, what would the South African reaction have been?

Worse still, imagine the Bulls were in the position they are in now, and they were playing the Waratahs this weekend, and not the Stormers. It is not a stretch of the imagination to suggest the South African rugby public would be calling them traitors and unpatriotic.

But they probably wouldn’t have fielded an understrength team against the Waratahs as there would then not have been the additional important consideration relating to the desire to host a travel fatigued team in the semis.

That is where Robbie Deans gets it wrong. The former coach of the seven time champion Crusaders told The Times that the Bulls should have treated the Stormers game as a play-off fixture in which their quest should have been to send the Stormers to Australia or New Zealand.

That though is not the likely result of a Bulls win. The likely result is that the Stormers would not be travelling to Australia, but to Soweto.

So while you cannot blame those who have got themselves into a huff, you also have to have sympathy for the Bulls – what else were they to do? Even if they did send Victor Matfield and company down to Newlands this weekend, where would be their motivation?

If the Crusaders and other teams wanted to avoid the current scenario, they should have ensured the Bulls didn’t run away with the league race like they did.

It is not as if the Bulls decision does not carry a huge element of risk. Indeed, it’s a massive gamble, for imagine how stupid the Bulls are going to look if they lose the semifinal, or if a Stormers team that has been allowed to pick up momentum against Bulls ‘B’ goes on to sweep them away in a final.

All season we have witnessed the phenomenon of having teams look rusty when they come off a bye. The Bulls themselves experienced it. The Bulls have also not been playing particularly well, and might need to be fine-tuning their game now ahead of a series of matches at what can be described as a ‘neutral’ home venue.

The argument that the players need a rest might have some validity, but last year we saw the Bulls win the competition at a canter after going into the knock-out phase on the back of a hectic and bruising mini-final against the Sharks in Durban. In 2007 they hit the semis on the crest of a wave after smashing the Reds in the final league game.

So this year sees a departure from a proven script and formula. In that sense it’s a gamble that could well backfire on them. But the other option might have been a gamble too – the Stormers are certainly good enough to beat a demotivated Bulls ‘A’ team at Newlands.