It all comes down to 240 minutes

The two-month break in hostilities at test-match level give us a chance to assess where the various contenders stand as we build up to the next World Cup, which 12 months from now will be in full swing.

The Tri-Nations season. which recently ended. served to confirm what we knew already – New Zealand are way out front and appear to be extending the gap between themselves and South Africa, who this time last year were not far off the pace.

But while the All Blacks are the dominant force, their defeat in Rustenburg at least added interest to the World Cup speculation by reminding the rugby public of a fact which has been true of all World Cups and could well be true of this one too – in the end, it all comes down to just 240 minutes of rugby.

Yes, no matter what happens between now and next September/October, the World Cup will be decided on the winning team’s ability to get up in three consecutive matches from the quarterfinal through to the final.

And while by winning five of their six Tri-Nations games the All Blacks showed they are the most likely of the southern hemisphere nations to climb that obstacle, their solitary defeat in Rustenburg at the hands of the Springboks would have been an uncomfortable reminder to Kiwis of what has happened at previous World Cups.

I was one of the neutrals in the Twickenham press-box in 1999 who could see the funny side as New Zealanders, so sure their team was assured of a place in the final, sat ashen faced watching the All Blacks fall apart against the French in the second half of the semifinal.

And in 2003 it was Wallaby captain George Gregan who put the boot in after yet another All Black implosion. Rated the form team of the tournament, the Kiwis played brainless rugby against Australia and were well out of it when Gregan chided them: “Four more years, guys, four more years”.

The World Cup has become a massive pre-occupation to New Zealand rugby. All the international coaches have placed a lot of emphasis on the World Cup this year, but none have been more blatant about it than All Black coach Graham Henry, who has been rotating teams and players for the past ten months in his attempt to leave no talent unspotted.

Henry’s team have proved to the world that they are way ahead of the rest of the field. And yes, they did have a bad day in the office when they lost in Rustenburg.

But then it is also possible they will have a bad day in a quarterfinal, a semi or a final. We just need to think back to 1995 to recall that New Zealand don’t always peak in finals, and forget about all that Suzie nonsense – what June 24 1995 taught us was that no team is invincible and in the end it comes down to those 80 minutes, or on the 160 immediately preceding the final.

On any one of those given days the All Blacks could come unstuck, for, on their bad days, they are vulnerable to Springbok teams that happen to peak at the right time. For that matter, they could also be vulnerable to England, who damn nearly beat them at Twickenham last year, while the Aussies were competitive in two of their Tri-Nations clashes against their Trans-Tasman rivals.

If the Boks absorb the lessons they should have learned when they won the last two Tri-Nations matches, it may just come to pass that they got more out of this year’s tournament than the All Blacks did.

What they should have learned from these games is the benefits that can be had, for a number of reasons, from spreading the net and not sticking too rigidly to continuity in selection.

It is debatable how much Henry’s rotation policy has really taught him – other than underline that his second team can probably beat most comers, but is still some way short of being as good as his top team.

Jake White has had this season to do without Schalk Burger and Bakkies Botha for the entire tournament, and without Jean de Villiers, André Pretorius and Juan Smith for half of it. All of them are influential players, and yet, by the end of it, there were new precocious talents coming through, not least of them a very special player in Pierre Spies.

Spies was not on the firmament this time last year, so who says another gem or two cannot be uncovered between now and the World Cup?

Of course, New Zealand, with all that talent, might well do so too, but the point is that there is enough fluidity in rugby to make it a bit premature at this stage to set New Zealand’s right to be favourites in stone.

Australia have the same problems they had before, namely their scrumming, but appear to have lost some of their over-preoccupation with phase play and the scrum was showing small signs of improvement. If they continue on the upward graph over the next year, they have the wit to beat the All Blacks when it really matters.