Boks wrong to hunt that bonus point

The Springboks must beware that they do not play into Australia's hands by shooting themselves in the feet in Saturday's crucial Tri-Nations match against the All Blacks at Eden Park.

There have been strong indications from Auckland this week that Bok coach Harry Viljoen, apparently mindful of the need to force Australia into a situation where they have to win their last match in order to win the Tri-Nations, intends adopting a policy of "all-out attack" against the Kiwis.

His intentions were telegraphed by his selection of Andre Snyman ahead of Deon Kayser on the basis that the former player, with his greater weight, offers a greater presence on attack. Then he opted for the inexperienced Joe van Niekerk as his bench loose-forward ahead of Corne Krige, presumably on the basis that Van Niekerk can offer more as a runner in an open game.

South African fans ought to hope that this is not a sign that the Boks are going into the Eden Park test with the need to score four tries uppermost in their minds. History is full of instances in the five years since the bonus point system was introduced at Tri-Nations, Super 12 and Currie Cup level where a team has gone out to score four tries and ended up losing.

A policy of playing for the win and then just waiting to see what happens in the other matches may be the more conservative option but historically it has met with greater success.

Some of the members of the All Black camp admitted afterwards that there focus on scoring tries to keep maximum pressure on the chasing Aussies was where they went wrong against the Springboks at Ellis Park last year. Although they did score four tries and pick up the bonus point, the fact that they lost meant it was all in vain.

More recently the Stormers went into a match against the Auckland Blues at Newlands explicitly chasing a five point haul of log-points as they battled to keep pace with the front-runners in this year's Super 12.

The Stormers had hammered the Canterbury Crusaders the previous week and it appeared they had turned their season around. But with quite a bit of ground needing to be made up, suddenly the talking point ahead of the Blues match became not just the result, but whether the Stormers could pick up four tries.

The Stormers made similar statements to the ones that Viljoen seems to be making in Auckland - during the buildup they pledged themselves to a policy of all-out attack.

So the Stormers went out looking to play the same loose rugby which helped them prevail the previous week. Instead they found themselves being frustrated by a Blues team that exerted pressure in the forward battle and tackled the daylights out of backs who frequently received ball and man at the same time.

When they went into the final quarter of the match the Stormers maintained a narrow lead but they were still well short of the required number of tries. Although they were in front, the body language of the Stormers players told a story - anything less than a full five points from the match would not be enough.

They ended up losing the plot entirely in the final minutes and the New Zealanders exploited the bizarre situation of a team playing come from behind rugby when they were actually ahead by scoring two tries and wrapping up the match.

As it turned out a straight victory in that match would have been enough to leave the Stormers needing just to win their last game to qualify for a semi- final. Taking their eye off the ball at Newlands had cost the Stormers dearly.

It was a similar story for the Cats team that was shocked by the Northern Bulls at Ellis Park in their last match of the league stage of the Super 12. The Cats needed a haul of five log points to stand a chance of playing a home semi.

Should the Boks lose at Eden Park and then the All Blacks go on to beat Australia in Sydney the following week, which is by no means beyond the realms of possibility, the South Africans might end up lamenting the fact that they did not just play for the win in Auckland.

While a glance at the Tri-Nations log is enough to make Viljoen's call for an attacking game understandable (if the Boks just win the Aussies can still overtake them by beating NZ), the statistics of this year's Tri-Nations suggest the folly of such an approach.

Australia are the leading try scorers in this year's competition. With one game to play, they have scored two tries and one penalty try - an average of one try a match. New Zealand have a similar average after scoring two tries in two starts. South Africa have scored two from three.

It means then that for the Springboks to attain their objective of four tries they would have doubled the number of tries they have scored in three matches and completely confounded the momentum of the tournament. So far, as Viljoen has admitted, the Tri-Nations has been dominated by defensive systems. The All Blacks won by playing a defensive game at Newlands. They just need to win at Eden Park to keep alive their hopes of winning the trophy back by beating the Wallabies at Stadium Australia the following week.

So there is no good reason to believe they will be going out on Saturday with anything other than the same tight approach in mind.

Of course, it could turn out differently. There have been some high scoring matches between these two teams over the years. Last year's Ellis Park clash and the entertaining thriller between the sides at the same venue in the 1997 season immediately springs to mind.

But for the match to take that course it just has to happen on the day. If the Boks go onto Eden Park with just tries on their mind they may just end up making the mistakes that New Zealand will be eager to exploit.

In any event, a look at the quality of the runners in the All Black backline would suggest that a running game would favour the hosts more than the visitors. Lest it be forgotten, the last time South Africa came to Eden Park they lost 55-35.

It may be more sensible for the Boks to retain the approach that saw them to victory over Australia in Pretoria and which left them tantalisingly close to repeating the dose in Perth.

With New Zealand so desperate for victory, maybe they will end up offering the Boks try scoring opportunities if they find themselves behind going into the final quarter.

But the Boks must play for the win first and foremost. Beating New Zealand in New Zealand is hard enough without adding the need to score a certain number of tries.

If Australia go on to win the trophy by beating the All Blacks in Sydney the following week then well done to them. The recent record between those two countries suggests it might not be as simple as that - since 1999 the away team has won every time.