Boks should expect to win well

Every second person I bump into thinks the Springboks are going to struggle on this end of year tour of the United Kingdom, but I don’t agree.

Yes, there is a lot of merit in the theory that Springbok coach Peter de Villiers should have opted for the insurance of having a seasoned northern hemisphere campaigner in Butch James in his squad for this trip. Even if he was going to use the tour to blood Ruan Pienaar as a flyhalf, and there is good reason to do that if you consider James won’t be available beyond the British Lions series, he could have done that around James, and not at his expense.

My memory is still fresh of James’ last trip to Twickenham with the Springboks, when he delivered a cool, composed and most importantly commanding performance against England in the first test of the 2006 series against them. And in the final test match of the Tri-Nations series, when the players played it their way and returned to the field position and structured approach they are comfortable with, James was in outstanding form.

If the omission of James was an unnecessary gamble, then the lack of a seasoned international campaigner to back up the experiment of playing John Smit at tighthead was even more so. It is understandable why the Boks are moving Smit across, and it was always likely to happen in time.

But two experienced scrumming experts in Cobus Visagie and Balie Swart have questioned the wisdom of doing it now, and while Smit did play tighthead for Clermont earlier in the year, the recollection I have of those games is how uncomfortable he looked. Were BJ Botha or CJ van der Linde on this tour then I would be even more convinced that the Boks would win the three tests quite easily.

Yet aside from these two selection question marks, the Boks do look better equipped than I can remember them being for any previous end of year tour. I have covered every trip of this nature since the first one to France and England in 1992, and I cannot recall an occasion when the Boks have left these shores without at least a couple of injury enforced withdrawals.

With Bakkies Botha and Jaques Fourie, two men who would come close to being the best players in their positions in the world right now, back from injury, the Boks are stronger on paper than they were in the Tri-Nations.

There is a lot of talent in the squad, the Boks do have the most experienced international players on the planet available to them, and frankly, the standard of northern hemisphere rugby right now is highly questionable. I remember speaking to a British writer towards the end of the Tri-Nations season who made the point that the Boks wouldn’t really be tested again until the 2009 Tri-Nations, and I am not sure I disagree with him.

Yes, there will be a lot of hype around next year’s Lions tour, but let’s not forget that the last time the Lions toured they were smashed by the All Blacks. That trip in 2005 put the standard of British rugby, when compared to the southern hemisphere, in perspective.

The only time in the last five years where southern hemisphere teams have struggled in the UK has been when they have sent experimental squads, such as when the Boks left most of their World Cup first choices at home in 2006 – and yet they were still significantly better than a full-strength England team.

The Boks should be expecting to win all the matches they play on this tour by a minimum of 10 points. The proviso, of course, is that they have to play the right game, and Eddie Jones was on the button when he called on the Boks to play tight rugby. Anything other than that would be giving these weaker teams a chance when they shouldn’t have one.

I reckon they will play direct, field position orientated rugby on this tour, which is why I am so confident they will win well. The first reason for my optimism is that John Smit is back, and his experience of leading the team in the northern hemisphere will dictate that he is the man who determines tactics on this trip.

The second reason is that the players showed what they could do if they play the game they are comfortable with when they destroyed Australia in Johannesburg, and the word I have had from the camp is that they will be continuing with this approach on this tour. If they do that, and sideline all the mumbo jumbo about new game-plans, then the Boks will win comfortably.

The Boks did not look tired or fatigued in the Currie Cup, most of them were on top form, and sensible rugby should see them home comfortably. Last week’s Bledisloe Cup game reminded me that this is a time when the Boks should be ruling the world and not losing any matches. This trip is one occasion where there really is no excuse for failure and we should be expecting them to win with something to spare.