Boks hitting a very tough road

Australia’s win over the All Blacks in Brisbane may have offered other competing teams at the World Cup some hope, but for Springbok fans the result should have been a double-edged sword.

While the Wallabies showed that the Kiwis aren’t invincible, they also sent out an unambiguous message of just how tough it is going to be for the Boks to retain their trophy.

Everyone in South Africa seems to be thinking that the winning of this World Cup will come down to victory in one game, the anticipated semifinal against New Zealand. That is far from the case. If the Boks do beat the All Blacks, their opponents in the final will probably be Australia, who on this past weekend’s evidence are running into impressive form on top of which they are welcoming back several key players from injury.

The tough road to the Webb Ellis Cup faced by the other two main contenders, New Zealand and South Africa, certainly weighs in Australia’s favour at this World Cup. For both the Boks and the All Blacks, the expected semifinal experience looms as a massive match, one which could extract so much effort and emotion from the eventual winner that it could have an influence on the decider if that team feels it has already played its final.

After being knocked out by England at the last World Cup, the Aussies won’t be taking the Six Nations obstacles that lie in their path lightly. But theirs does look an easier road.

The point about the Brisbane match was that it should have reminded the Boks that the All Blacks are not their only obstacle. Victor Matfield, after the Bok win over the Kiwis the previous week, was right to state that the focus is now on beating Wales. If they don’t win their Pool, the Boks won’t be playing the All Blacks in a semifinal.

That aside, the Brisbane match might have had a significance that was greater than the confidence they would have gained from Australia scoring a rare win over the All Blacks and securing their first Castle Tri-Nations title for the first time since 2001.

The World Cup significance was about what the Kurtley Beale second half try prevented the All Blacks from doing, which was to prove their mental toughness by turning over a 17-point halftime deficit at a tough away venue.

Had the All Blacks completed their amazing second-half comeback by winning the match, they would have been in almost impregnable position mentally. As it stands now though, their come-from-behind win over South Africa at Soccer City last year is the only recent match where I can recall the Kiwis winning a tough close one.

That leaves one box unticked for the All Blacks – they haven’t really had their temperament properly tested. Yes, they have won a lot of matches quite easily in the past few years, but how do they respond when it is tight and when they have to overturn a lead in the last minutes? This was the second time in two months that those All Blacks who double as Crusaders came second in a close one, and it is in fact the third if you count the Super Rugby league match against the Reds.

That is just a little question mark that adds intrigue to a World Cup that has been made a lot more interesting by the outcome of the Tri-Nations and the fact that the All Blacks are going into the tournament on the back of two successive defeats. Who would have predicted that three weeks ago, when they so comprehensively outplayed the Wallabies to retain the Bledisloe?

Of course it is important to remember that previous game was played in Auckland, which is where the big games at the World Cup will be played. Richie McCaw’s team displayed great composure and control when they fought back in the third quarter and we mustn’t forget that the team that lost in Port Elizabeth was a second string combination.

But at least the Brisbane result will mean the All Blacks don’t go into the tournament looking like invincible super men, which seemed likely a few weeks ago. It’s Australia who have the momentum.

Just who that situation will favour is something we will only be able to answer in October, for the last time the Wallabies won against the All Blacks in Australia (in Robbie Deans’s first match in charge) there was a furious backlash when next they met on the other side of the ditch.