A retrospective on getting super 12 predictions right and wrong

The word 'if' may well be the most abused entry in the English Dictionary, but it does have some uses when it comes time for rugby soothsayers to look back from the benefit of hindsight at their pre-season predictions.

No, it may not have been the best of Super 12 seasons as far as my own predictions were concerned. But it was not all bad.

For instance, some of you may recognise the following words: "Super 12 could herald Kiwi renaissance". That was the headline on my story previewing the 2002 edition of the Super 12.

Yes, allow me to gloat for a moment as I re-read the words which appeared in that particular column: "I sense a giant stirring down souththat could bode no good for the teams from the other two southern nations.

"The Brumbies annexed the trophy for Australia last year (I got the winner right in 2001 as well) and judging from some of their early season form they are poised to mount yet another strong challenge.

"Somehow though it is hard to see them just slipping into life under a new coach (David Nucifora) without a hiccup or two along the way and although they will make the semis, I will not be putting my money this year on them repeating last year's achievement.

"This year the smart cash just has to go onto Crusaders, who have shed their team of some of the old timers and replaced them with some exciting new ones."

There it is in black and white, and written before a ball was kicked in anger in the 2002 Super 12. It appears us hacks must know a thing or two after all.

It gets even better if you glance at my prediction of where the teams would end up on the log at the conclusion of the league stages.

I had the Crusaders first and I had the Brumbies finishing third. That is precisely how it turned out. Maybe I could make some money out of this business...

But hang on. Let's look at the rest of my predictions. Suddenly the smile is disappearing from my face.

Who did I have finishing in the runner-up position? No, it wasn't the Waratahs.

I had them finishing 10th, not second. It was in fact the Sharks, who finished not second, but a lowly ninth.

I was not too far wrong with the Reds. They finished fifth rather than the fourth place I predicted. The Highlanders, who did finish fourth, were three places better than the seventh place I thought they would manage.

The Blues, instead of finishing fifth, managed to finish sixth. Instead of finishing sixth, the Stormers finished seventh (which suggests they may have been slight under-achievers in 2002).

The biggest embarrasment, believe it or not, may come further down the table. Sure, the Cats did not do much better than the 12th place that I predicted for them. But the Bulls? What follows must be the words of a complete lunatic: "What of the rest of the SA challenge? The Northern Bulls are certainly better than the 150 to one outsiders they have been made by some bookmakers Down Under.

"Heyneke Meyer started stirring a giant at the Blue Bulls last year and with the other provincial teams in that region also having completed impressive 2001 Currie Cup seasons, the Springbok forward coach has greater depth to work with than was enjoyed by some of his predecessors.

"I take them to win enough games to finish eighth or ninth." Ouch, ouch, ouch!!

But that is where that little word "if" starts to come in. IF Heyneke Meyer had managed to get a half decent defensive system going, I am convinced the Bulls would have finished where I said they would. They certainly looked better for most of the Super 12 with ball in hand than the Cats did.

The word also relates quite well to the big bombers from Durban. After watching first hand their games against the Crusaders, Reds, Chiefs and Blues, I am convinced they could easily have finished second.

IF only they had played for the entire season as they did in those games. IF they had beaten the Stormers in the opening match it could have been a vastly different 2002 season for them. Ditto for IF they had had Trevor Halstead, Butch James, Mark Andrews, Lukas van Biljon and company for playing for them for the entire campaign.

Perhaps it would have been a different harvest for them IF they had played all their games at home too.

And IF the Waratahs had played all their games like they did their last two, they would have been hard pressed to even end 10th.

Ah, making predictions before an opening whistle has been sounded is never easy. Maybe the Sharks management were as guilty as we were in reading too much into that victory over the Harlequins in London two weeks before the official start of the Super 12.

They did look a bit underdone in those early matches. And maybe if the luck had ridden with the Bulls in that nip-and-tuck clash with the Cats in their opening match, which was decided by one Gcobani Bobo, perhaps they could have overcome their lack of defence and finished eighth.

I have a solution to all of this. Next year I will give my predictions for the season only after the first round has already been played.

But then, as Naas might have said had he been playing in the modern era, the Super 12 dye is not cast in February.