A hunch about the Sharks

The process of sitting down to assess what lies in front of us in the new Super Rugby season reminds me of the words of an old song which used to receive a lot of airplay when I was a child. Part of it goes “Everyone talks about a new world in the morning”.

It is a new world as far as the premier southern hemisphere regional competition is concerned, and it hits home when you try to play that annual game of predicting the winner and finishing order in the tournament.

There will be an all-in log that will run concurrently with the three conference logs, but the conference system, and the way the semifinalists and playoff participants will be arrived at, does make it a lot more difficult to stick your neck out and say who will be where when the business end is finally reached in July.

It is further complicated of course by the fact that this year every team does not get to play every other team. The possibility, some would even say probability, that the conferences will not be of equal strength and competitiveness further complicates the issue.

Remember that while the three conference winners will automatically qualify for the playoffs, finishing position on the overall log is still important for the purpose of determining which two sides go straight to the playoff and also the identity and ranking of the three wild cards.

The top two conference winners on the final overall log host the semifinals, with the third- ranked conference winner hosting the lowest-ranked wild card in one of the two quarterfinals.

So with the teams within each conference set to play each other twice during the league phase, the sides in a competitive conference with, say, four strong teams, will be worse off than the two teams that might dominate a weaker conference.

That is one of the reasons I am not so confident about the chances of South Africa dominating the competition as was the case last year – in any event it is now impossible for both semifinals to be played in one country – as this should be a season where there are at least three, and possibly four, strong teams in the conference.

Suggesting that the Lions might win the competition after finishing last in 2010 is stretching it a bit, but it is reasonable to expect them to be a lot more competitive.

And both they and the Cheetahs should benefit from the new system in that they boast a much better record against fellow South African teams – taking Currie Cup into consideration – than they do against overseas teams.

The Cheetahs probably don’t have the depth to sustain any kind of challenge in a competition like this, but you wouldn’t bet your house against them, if fortune runs their way, winning both matches against the Sharks or the Stormers, two of the teams that you would expect to challenge.

So what the pre-season prediction column should really be about this year is taking a line on who is going to win each conference.

My money says the only certainty is the New Zealand conference, where I would be prepared to bet the sum required to buy a farm on Adderley Street that the Crusaders will be the winners.

Indeed, it is hard to ignore their candidacy to be overall winners, for you do get the sense that New Zealand will this season go all out to do what they failed to do in the last World Cup year by getting up some momentum in the Super competition.

Crusaders were beaten semifinalists last year but towards the end of the competition they were starting to play the style of rugby that saw the All Blacks to resounding success in the Tri-Nations.

They were unlucky to lose their penultimate league game against the Bulls at Loftus, and their subsequent defeat in the Soweto semifinal needs to be seen in the context of the ridiculous amount of travel they had to do in a short space of time.

So who will be the other two automatic entrants to the playoff rounds? The Australian conference is hard to take a line on because this year will be an even newer world for them than it will be for the rest of the countries in that the addition of the extra team, the Melbourne Rebels, will dilute their strength.

The Reds were the growing team last season, so they would be my tip, with the Brumbies their biggest challengers. There may not be that much depth to Aussie rugby, but their derbies could be hard fought, which will mean their qualifiers finishing lower down.

As three times champions, the Bulls must be favourites in the South African conference, and the Stormers did play in the final last year and have an excellent record against overseas teams, but my hunch is that this could well be the season where the Sharks come good and make up for their near miss in 2007.

They have the depth (though a lot does depend on their two first-choice halfbacks being there for the entire season) and I really like their draw, with only two early games played in the stifling Durban humidity before they engage the near-perfect conditions you get in Australasia at this time of year.

Then it is back for an extended run on South African soil, and as they are domestic champions, they should back themselves if they return from overseas having laid a strong platform.

So that is my call – Sharks, Crusaders and Reds as conference winners, with the semifinals being played in South Africa and New Zealand. The wild card certainties will be the Bulls and the challenge for the remaining two places in the top six will come from the Stormers, Hurricanes, Chiefs and Brumbies.