A hunch about the Crusaders

If you read the column where I made my pre-season predictions, dated 15 February in the archives, you will understand why as a patriotic South African I came up with the above headline. I am trying to put the mockers on the team that I think is best placed to win the Super Rugby competition.

Back in March it was the Sharks I had a hunch about, and though as always there was some hedging of bets, I predicted that they would not only win the South African conference, but also the entire competition. They are still alive as we speak, and could yet do a Houdini Act, but as we head towards the Super Rugby Finals Series, it looks like I may have jinxed them.

My prediction for the other two conference winners though was a lot closer to the mark. I was one of the few critics to tip the Reds to win the Australian conference and I wrote that the Crusaders would win the New Zealand conference with something to spare.

The Crusaders haven’t done that yet, but they do look set to edge their conference, and even though they might well have to see action in the extra playoff round (the Super Rugby Qualifiers), a month out from the end of the season they are my tip to win the trophy.

There are several reasons for this, and they are not just related to the number of world class game-breakers they have in their outfit. It’s been a tough season for the Crusaders, with the Christchurch earthquake forcing them to play away from their usual home ground and then a wave of injuries sweeping through their team.

Yet while there were enough injuries to cripple any other team, the Crusaders have managed to hang in, and their win over the Stormers at the beginning of May was a defining moment for them in the competition. They had several players absent that day, and yet it was they, and not the Stormers, who displayed the championship qualities.

Yes, I know the Bulls did the same thing to the Stormers a few days ago by also just standing back to watch the Stormers commit suicide, but their injuries weren’t as impactful as the Crusaders' injuries should have been. Danie Rossouw is a better No 4 lock these days than Bakkies Botha, and while Fourie du Preez is a world class player, Francois Hougaard is gifted in other ways and scored the winning try.

So my apologies to the Pretoria based journalist who in saying goodbye to me at the weekend told me he would see me at the final. The Bulls won’t be there, for as I told him, the overseas teams they are likely to run into in the Super Rugby Qualifiers, assuming they beat the Sharks of course, won’t be in the charitable mood the Stormers were this past weekend.

Stormers coach Allister Coetzee was quite right when he said that first 72 minutes of the derby were the worst 72 minutes they have produced this season. And the Bulls only won by three points. The Bulls deserve credit for the determination they have shown over the past few weeks, but they are still a million miles away from where they were a year or so ago.

By my calculations if they win through to the qualifiers they will be away to the Blues or the Crusaders, and my money would go on either of those two Kiwi sides to beat them comfortably.

Not that I am expecting to be at a Newlands final either. A certain Wild Coast holiday establishment has me booked in to start a short holiday on the day of the final, which is how much confidence I have in the Stormers booking a final for Newlands. I will change my plans and remain in Cape Town if I have to, and will cover the game off television if they are involved in an away final, but I don’t expect to see them there.

The reason for my pessimism is rooted in a belief that surely winning a competition like Super Rugby requires a team to be capable of much more than just a sound defensive game. Also there is their poor form at Newlands, where they appear to freeze up on the big occasions. If they beat the Cheetahs this weekend, they will probably host the Crusaders in the semifinal. It will be a massive game, but the Crusaders will win.

The one thing counting against the Crusaders then following up and winning the final would be the travelling they would have to do. But if that final is against the Reds the hosts will have so many injuries by then that the recent narrow win they scored against the Crusaders will be reversed. If the final is against any other team that other team just wouldn’t be good enough.

Unless that other team happens to be the Sharks, for given the way they have profited from luck recently it might just be that the gods of rugby are trying to make up for the cruelty that was bestowed on them in 2007. But surely their luck will run out this weekend. Or will it? Hmmm…better stop writing before I start feeling another of those hunches coming on…