The usual suspects

The sangoma has rolled the bones and seen a shimmering vision of red, black and blue hovering at the end of the 15th season of Super Rugby.

Not being a rugby man and caught up in his overriding task of predicting the outcome of Fifa’s 2010 World Cup he was not up to providing me with an interpretation but it was easy enough to decipher – the Bulls to play the Crusaders in the Final of 2010 Super 14.

Of course, there is no sangoma. It’s just my way of making what stands out as a patently obvious forecast about the outcome of the last year of Super 14 rugby before administrators go ahead with what to my mind is the incorrect decision to dilute the tournament even more by adding Melbourne to the roster.

On paper the defending champions and the Crusaders hold all the advantages – a spread of world-rated players, great depth, superb goal-kickers, favourable draws, a winning culture and genuine home-ground advantage.

The Super 14, since its inception in 2006, has always been pretty much a Top 7/Bottom 7 competition when it comes to analysing who might emerge victorious.

Occasionally one of the bottom grouping has come through (the Chiefs last year) but a formula of three from New Zealand, two from South Africa and two from Australia has been proven to result in a pretty decent percentage return.

On that basis this is what I came up with:

New Zealand – Crusaders, Hurricanes, Chiefs.

South Africa – Bulls, Stormers.

Australia – Brumbies, Waratahs.

As a former Springbok once remarked, you don’t have to be a science rocket (!) to come up with the Top 7.

The two teams that bother me are the Sharks and the perennially under-achieving Blues.

The Sharks have unquestionably the best away record of all the South African sides but I am not alone in sensing that all is not well down Durban way. There’s a sense that a once-formidable squad has edged beyond maturity while the old canon that “Natal have a duty to run the ball” is a long-faded memory.

The Blues dominated the early years of Super Rugby and, Auckland being the commercial hub of New Zealand, always have a squad brimming with the best Kiwiland has to offer but an enduring combination of poor discipline and a lack of focus has meant they have not reach the Final since 2003.

That leaves five other teams, the Lions, the Cheetahs, the Force, the Reds and the Highlanders, to throw into the melting pot and they all struggle with the same handicaps – a lack of funds, a paucity of player resources and an unfavourable performance record over the years.

Each team plays 13 matches and you pretty much need eight (8) wins to reach the last four – the unpleasant reality being that finishing fifth is as good as ending up in 14th place.

So, on that basis, instead of listing a 1 to 14 forecast as in the past here’s my call on the play-offs – the Bulls, the Crusaders, the Hurricanes and, in spite of the usual pre-season hype emanating from the Cape, the Brumbies.