The blizzard of Oz

The somewhat awkward experience at the weekend of finding oneself having to shout for Australia could have a refrain in Durban on Saturday when the Springboks take on the All Blacks.

It is a game the Boks not only have to win – and win well! – to maintain an interest in the Tri-Nations but also to crash through an important psychological barrier.

Victory over the All Blacks and the Wallabies, whether it results in Tri-Nations glory or not, will set this young Springbok team on the high road to next year’s Rugby World Cup in Australia.

First up will be the All Blacks and I believe the Boks have an excellent chance of pulling it off – thanks to the Wallabies.

I base this contention on Saturday’s awesome test match between the Wallabies and the All Blacks in Sydney.

The physical commitment of both teams was breathtaking and the All Blacks, who spent the last 20 minutes desperately defending against the swarming Wallaby attack, will surely struggle to recover in just a week from such an encounter.

Factor in the debilitating effects of travel and jet lag and you come to the conclusion that Reuben Thorne and his men must be running pretty close to empty.

An additional factor which could count against the men from the Land of the Long White Cloud is the Crusaders bias in the All Blacks squad.

The Crusaders might have set the best record yet in the Super 12 but it meant their players soldiering through the additional weeks of the semi-final and final so they must, at the very least, be more tired than the Springboks.

Medical opinion that such long spells of tough physical activity are impossible to sustain is well documented so there is every indication that a hot, humid August afternoon (let’s hope the weather plays the game!) in Durban could represent a bridge to far for the mighty South Islanders.

But it will be up to the Boks to expose this creeping fatigue – if it is there – among the New Zealanders.

They will have to play with complete commitment and concentration for every minute of the game – and these days that means about 90 minutes of supreme effort. Their work in the primary phases must be precise, their kicking accurate and their retention and re-cycling of the ball compelling.

In this latter facet of the game coach Straeuli could do worse than make a tape of the Wallabies’ game against the All Blacks compulsory viewing every night of the week.

I have written before about my own method to arrive by a statistic for ball retention and on Saturday the Wallabies, thrusting forward like a swirling, golden blizzard, reached an incredible standard.

One cannot help being impressed by their expertise. Their crucial try by Mat Rogers came after they had kept the ball through 16 stoppages and they frequently took the ball beyond five phases. In many of these they ended up getting the ensuing scrum are being able to force an attacking position and in the end I gave them a retention count of 101 – one of the few times I have ever reached three figures.

By way of contrast the best figure I have for the Springboks this year is 75 – interestingly against the All Blacks at Wellington two weeks ago.

This augurs well for Saturday’s Durban test because the Boks know they can win the ball as well as keep it away from the All Blacks. In fact, had they had a better shake from Stuart Dickinson it is easy to see how the 41-20 result could have been much closer.

What will be crucial on Saturday is for the Boks to strive to stay in touch up to halftime rather than conceding a lead like they did in both their previous Tri-Nations encounters.

If they do I’m predicting All Black legs will start to go in the second period and we could be celebrating what in many ways will be a watershed victory for Rudolf Straeuli and the team he’s been trying to build.