SA teams to get the Blues

The Blues to retain their title and the South African teams nowhere. That, in a nutshell, is my prediction for the 2004 Super 12 rugby tournament starting on Friday.

The Blues, in spite of a tricky draw which has them opening up away against two of their toughest opponents in the Brumbies and the Crusaders and provides them with only five home games, should still have too much fire power for the rest.

After winning 10 out of 11 matches on their triumphal march last season the Aucklanders still possess their gatherers of rave reviews in the backline, Rupeni Caucaunibuca, Joe Rokococo, Doug Howlett, Carlos Spencer, Mils Muliaina, Sam Tuitupou et al, but they also have a pretty competent set of forwards.

A frontrow of Kees Meeuws, Keven Mealamu and Greg Feek backed up by the like of Ali Williams, Xavier Rush, Justin Collins and Daniel Braid will give ground to no-one and with their ability to strike from anywhere on the field the Blues will again be able to harvest bonus points and overcome the difficulties of their draw.

Two of my other picks to reach the semifinals are the perennially competitive South Islanders from Christchurch, the Canterbury Crusaders, along with Australia’s most successful outfit, the Brumbies.

However, deciding on the fourth qualifier is not that easy. The Hurricanes, who qualified last year, look competitive but have a tough draw to overcome; the Reds have a better draw but lack depth; the Highlanders have undergone a transformation in personnel but are always so formidable in Dunedin, the Waratahs are in a state of transition and play the Blues and Crusaders away while the Chiefs, the only New Zealand side never to have reached the semi-finals, could well exploit a draw that provides them with six (out of 11) home matches; including three in a row in Hamilton to end of the round robin stages.

So what, I sense you thinking, of the South African teams?

To be frank my view is that for the third year running South Africa will fail to provide a team in the last four.

The Bulls, who gloried in finishing sixth last year, could not have asked for a better platform. They start off with five straight matches at home, followed by five away with their last, against the Cats, back at Loftus.

With the experience of the eight previous years showing that the goal to reach the semis should be seven wins and 33 log points (possibly six wins with plenty of bonus points) it is set up on a plate for the Bulls if they can get off to a flying start.

Militating against having confidence in the Pretorians, though, are the ongoing rumours that they are an unhappy team who would be more comfortable being coached by Heyneke Meyer rather than Rudy Joubert. Stories keep filtering across the Jukskei that Joubert is at odds with players such as Derick Hougaard, on the brink of the biggest season of his young life, and if they prove to be true I’m afraid the Bulls, in spite of a wonderful set of forwards and pretty useful backs, will fail to deliver.

Of the other South African teams the settled Stormers, in spite of the loss of some key men such as Robbie Fleck and Faan Rautenbach, look to be the best bet going on their proven, albeit insubstantial, ability to win on tour. They, however, have only five games at Newlands.

The Sharks and the Cats, I’m afraid, look to be in for a long and trying haul. Both have intimidating draws. The Cats have one at home followed by five in succession on the road before returning for four at home (one of which will be in Bloemfontein) and closing off at Loftus while the Sharks kick off with five consecutive away games before returning to Absa Stadium for six in a row at home.

Both teams are thus faced with the possibility of the season going sour even before they have got into their stride. The Cats have bolstered their pack in the off-season but have looked lazy and cumbersome in their warm-up matches while the Sharks, in spite of managing to add Johann Ackerman and Russel Winter, seem short of the necessary “mongrel”, to quote Zinzan Brooke, in the tight five.

So, without further ado, this is how I see it.

1. Blues
2. Crusaders
3. Brumbies
4. Hurricanes
5. Bulls
6. Chiefs
7. Highlanders
8. Reds
9. Waratahs
10. Stormers
11. Cats
12. Sharks