Into the tempest

It’s all Darren Scott’s fault, of course. Left-siding me with a sneaky late question on Boots and All’s Christmas Show.

“Okay guys,” said Darren. “It’s prediction time. Who’s going to win what in 2009?”

Now, I must tell you, when you’re frozen in those bright studio lights, there’s nowhere to hide plus the last thing you want to do is mumble “I don’t really know.”

The truth is at that moment I really didn’t know. I hadn’t thought about 2009. My brain was still aching from 2008. But Scotty had on that evil grin of his and was demanding an answer.

And this is what I said.

“Springboks to beat the Lions, the Wallabies to win the Tri-Nations, the Sharks to win the Currie Cup and the Hurricanes to win the Super 14,” and then it was good night and good luck and the curtain came down on Boots and rugby for another year.

I knew that my quickly framed opinions would come back to haunt me and, the second month of 2009 already upon us, now is the hour.

It is time for Super 14 predictions and being a man of honour, and also knowing that someone, somewhere will remember and e-mail an outraged riposte about doddery old men who forget what they say, I’ll be as good as my word and stay with the Hurricanes.

It’s an oddity of SuperRugby that only four teams – the Crusaders, Blues, the Brumbies and the Bulls – have won the title and of those who have not worn the crown the Sharks and the ‘Canes have the best record.

The Wellington-based outfit, in spite of losing three class loose forwards in Jerry Collins, Chris Masoe and Thomas Waldrom and the valuable and oft-underrated Jimmy Gopperth, have a squad studded with All Blacks.

They have reached the play-offs in three of the last four years, their tight forwards are no longer an Achilles heel and there are signs that the inconsistency and poor discipline which used to trip them up has finally been eradicated.

So, a quick call made in December, might not be such a bad one at all.

Now that one has had time to study the squads, check the arrivals and departures, assess the possible influence of new coaches and, most importantly, look at the imperatives of the draw an interesting configuration, to my mind at least!, emerges.

There’s a Top Four, funnily enough last year’s semi-finalists the Crusaders, the Hurricanes, the Waratahs and the Sharks, who have settled squads, good depth and manageable draws.

Then there’s a group of five – the Blues, the Brumbies, the Bulls, the Stormers and the Chiefs – who could force their way to the top of the pile followed by the other five – the Force, the Cheetahs, the Lions, the Highlanders and the Reds – who will jostle for the bottom positions.

So this is how I see the numbers swirling around in my crystal ball – okay, okay beer glass!

Hurricanes
Crusaders
Sharks
Waratahs
Blues
Chiefs
Brumbies
Bulls
Stormers
Western Force
Lions
Cheetahs
Reds
Highlanders

There are just so many variables. A few missed kicks, a referee’s decision for or against, a bad run of injuries could make or break a season.

The Blues, with all those quality players worry me, as do the Chiefs with all their pace. The Blues have won the title three times and could this be the season the Chiefs finally make a strong start or will they put themselves under pressure by losing their first two games away to the Crusaders and the Waratahs?

And I can already anticipate the posts of outrage on the message board for the low rating I have given the Bulls and the Stormers… but let me explain. I’m not sure the Bulls have got their heads around the free-wheeling approach necessary to exploit the ELVs, the Stormers’s engine still seems to lack the necessary torque and then there’s the fixture list confronting the two great South African rivals.

Both will have the comfort of three early home games (although Jean de Villiers’ men do have to travel to Loftus) but their tours down under could not be harder – a line-up of the Hurricanes, the Highlanders, the Crusaders, the Waratahs and the Brumbies for the Bulls and an even more formidable assignment for the Stormers who will have to travel to Christchurch, back to Sydney and Canberra and then across the Tasman again to Wellington and Dunedin.

The way it’s panned out both will have to return home to play the Chiefs and, frankly, I just don’t see them getting enough points on the road.

So it’s “Go The ‘Canes!” guys and girls. Cut and paste the list and get ready to blow me away come the end of May!