Always take a gun

The Lion analogies have been flying around for weeks now so here’s another which any game ranger will tell you – always make sure you’re armed when walking in the bush.

My mind went to these typically South African things – conjuring up worrying images of vulnerable Springboks being shredded by ferocious Lions – because of despatches and titbits of information emerging from the Bok camp.

The most disturbing of these is the seeming intent of Messrs De Villiers, Muir and Gold (not forgetting the influence of the senior players) to go into the first test with a large number of injured soldiers; ranging from recently recovered or still recovering.

I have not been on the Bok beat this year but there is a fair amount of cross-pollination between the journos who trail the Lions and also rush off to stay in touch with the South African squad.

Plus there has been the speculation in the media that the first test team could include up to five players who would not have played rugby for a length of time because of long-term injuries (Ruan Pienaar, Schalk Burger, Jean de Villiers) or who have been nursing injuries – Jaque Fourie and Adi Jacobs - and who are thus not as sharp as one would like them to be.

One third of the team? It seems an unnecessary risk to take because, as any number of former Lions and Springboks have been warning, the team that wins the first game in a three-test series holds all the advantages.

And it is my contention that the Boks will have to be at their best to beat what could be a formidable Lions test combination.

Better to go in with fully fit, match-sharp players than risk inaccuracies and uncertainties costing us the opening international.

To my mind that would have been John Smit at hooker, Bismarck du Plessis on the bench, two specialist tighthead props, the solidity of the Bulls central core, 4 Bakkies Botha, 5 Victor Matfield, 8 Pierre Spies, 9 Fourie du Preez, 10 Morné Steyn and 12 Wynand Olivier, Jaque Fourie to blunt the threat of powerful Lions centres and a specialist fullback; either Stefan Terblanche or Zane Kirchner.

It just does not make sense to run the risk of playing men short of their best and having them break down – and in the case of Ruan Pienaar damaging his gathering confidence as a flyhalf.

Much has been made of Heinrich Brüssow’s superlative form for the Cheetahs and the Lions’ potential weakness at the breakdown but I wonder if it is not more a case of the tourists not being accustomed to the ELV which permits a player making a tackle to stand up in an off-sides position and play the ball.

Ian McGeechan is careful not to stray into contentious issues but I would not be surprised if he has it on his agenda to take this aspect of the breakdown up with referees because there were times it could have been argued Brüssow was actually offsides with his hands on the ball because the ruck had formed around him.

There is also the view, which I subscribe to, that this Lions side does not contain the “galacticos” that emerged in ’97 – Smith, Wood, Wallace, Johnson, Dallaglio, Hill, Back, Dawson, Guscott, Gibbs – but the tourists will nevertheless be able to put out a more than competent test team.

The Lions scrum well, their lineout is right up there, they maul well, they have good kickers and they could put together a pretty dangerous backline.

I did a quick exercise on how McGeechan’s test XV might shape up and the result is a conviction that the Boks had better be up to it when the teams run out in Durban on June 20.

A frontrow of Andrew Sheridan, Jerry Flannery (to preserve his throwing in to Irish locks) and Euan Murray will be as strong as they come; the two O’s, Paul O’Connell and Donncha O’Callaghan are joined at the hip through years of toil for Munster and Ireland; there are some outstanding loose forwards; dangerous backs and excellent kickers.

Here’s the team I came up with and it has a pretty predatory look about it:

1 Andrew Sheridan (England), 2 Jerry Flannery (Ireland), 3 Euan Murray (Scotland), 4 Donncha O’Callaghan (Ireland), 5 Paul O’Connell (Ireland, captain), 6 Martin Williams (Wales), 7 Tom Croft (England), 8 Jamie Heaslip (Ireland), 9 Mike Phillips (Wales), 10 Stephen Jones (Wales), 11 Shane Williams (Wales), 12 Jamie Roberts (Wales), 13 Brian O’Driscoll (Ireland), 14 Tommy Bowe (Ireland), 15 Lee Byrne (Wales).

Replacements: 16 Lee Mears (England), 17 Gethin Jenkins (Wales), 18 Nathan Hines (Scotland), 19 Paul Wallace (Ireland), 20 Mike Blair (Scotland), 21 Ronan O’Gara (Ireland), 22 Rob Kearney (Ireland).

Now that’s not the worst line-up I’ve ever seen. The Boks had better make sure their guns are cocked and ready to fire.