A bridge too far

'No, I don’t think so.' That was my answer way back in January when the editor of the Australian Rugby Review asked me to address the question of whether a South African team could finally win the Super 12.

At that point none of the squads had been finalised so it was a shot in the dark but this was the gist of my reply. “South Africa’s new rugby year got off to a typical start with officials squabbling and seeming disarray on the playing front.

“South Africa, as a result of ongoing and seemingly endless internecine problems, coupled to the unavoidable built-in travel handicap it’s teams face in the Super 12, simply lacks the unity of purpose or the depth in a single squad to go all the way.”

At the time we were in the midst of racially charged boardroom squabbles and had just been informed of the quota system which isn’t one, so it wasn’t the most appealing canvas on which to paint an optimistic picture.

Added to this only the Bulls had been in a position to name a full complement of 30 while the other three coaches seemed to be playing for time.

But that was six weeks ago; a lifetime in rugby!

The tournament is now upon us and the question is still relevant – can a South African side finally win the Super 12 in the 10th, and last, year of the tournament?

The answer is still that I think not.

The outlook now is much more positive with local teams having done well in their warm-up games, appearing upbeat in the fitness stakes and well treated by the injury bogey but my view is still that South African teams, for all their obvious talent, simply lack the nous to go all the way.

The travel bugbear has proved to be insurmountable in the previous nine years and I can’t see a reason why local teams should suddenly find the formula to stop shedding points on the road.

I would love to be proven wrong (with uncomfortable memories of Charl van Rensburg chiding me on Boots and All for having placed the Sharks in 12th position in my pre-season predictions) but I just don’t see one of our teams winning at least seven or eight games (to qualify for the semi-finals) and then two more to take the title.

Call it faith in the repetition of history but a record that shows only two appearances in the final (both by the Natal Sharks) militates against a remarkable turnaround.

The next question must be whether South Africa can produce one or more semi-finalists?

Against a backdrop that has the Brumbies (in spite of their draw), the Crusaders and the Blues dominating most opinion polls, with strong support for the Waratahs in Australia, the Bulls and the Stormers are my picks to mount South Africa’s strongest challenges.

Coming off a hat-trick of Currie Cups and with the Blue Bull structure left intact the men from Pretoria have a confident, settled look while the Stormers have much the same squad that reached the semi-finals in 2004.

The keys will be for the Bulls to impose their pattern in the Super 12 while becoming better tourists while the Stormers will have to answer the perennial posers about their tight-five but man-for-man they have the beating of most sides – an important consideration being those six home games the men from the Cape have at Newlands.

The eclectic Cats, with few current Springboks and committed to a long build-up under Chester Williams, have been forced to plug their frontrow gaps with some old warhorses in 1995 World Cuppers Naka Drotske and Marius Hurter and Ollie le Roux from Natal and much will depend on the resolve of the forwards and the success of Brendan Venter in sealing the competition’s most porous defence.

The Sharks have gone for youthful exuberance to light the spark that went out so disappointingly in the latter part of last year’s tournament but have given away experience. I fear that for both the Sharks and the Cats, who have worked so hard to improve, the 2005 competition is a year too soon.

The fact that this is the last Super 12 will add an extra edge and one senses that all the teams have prepared with more urgency, but all the best laid plans of athletic performance coaches and campaign managers could be undone by the ever-present bane of injuries and the curse of referees’ decisions… and, just as you begin to think that I am trying to disguise a cop-out with waffle, here’s my prediction:

1. Crusaders
2. Blues
3. Brumbies
4. Bulls
5. Waratahs
6. Stormers
7. Highlanders
8. Cats
9. Hurricanes
10 Chiefs
11. Sharks
12. Reds