It could be a watershed weekend

In every Vodacom Super 14 season there is a point reached where some teams draw well clear of others and it becomes a lot more obvious which are going to be the front-runners and which are going to be the chasers.

That moment could well have arrived for this year’s competition, with two big matches in this week’s fifth round set to decide how strong a platform the winners will have heading towards the halfway mark of the tournament.

The first game in question is the one that kicks off the weekend’s action in Hamilton on Friday morning. The Chiefs are second after dropping a match unexpectedly to the Reds last week, but they can still significantly strengthen their quest for a home semifinal if they see off the challenge of the Crusaders.

The south island team are not eight time champions in this competition for nothing, and everyone knows they will be hard to stop if they can continue to regain momentum after their shock defeat some weeks ago, ironically also to the Reds. At the same time, however, another loss will leave the Crusaders lagging off the pace - they are currently fifth - and it will be that much harder for them as to some extent they will have to play catch-up.

It is a similar story for the other battle between two teams currently placed in the top five – the third-placed Stormers and the fourth-placed Hurricanes. Like the Chiefs, the Hurricanes lost their first game last week. Before that though they were looking strong contenders and were seemingly set to make a break for it in the top two.

The Stormers won’t completely derail the Hurricanes campaign if they win on Saturday at Newlands, but it will leave the Hurricanes with two successive defeats and they will start to feel the pressure. Likewise, a win for Schalk Burger and his men will significantly increase their chances of going overseas in a few weeks from now with a comfortable buffer.

WEEKEND MATCHES

FRIDAY

Highlanders v Crusaders Hamilton 8.30am

Dan Carter and Richie McCaw are both starting for the Crusaders, who look relatively full-strength for this New Zealand derby, and it is always hard to bet against them when they are untroubled by injuries. However, Mils Muliaina is captaining a Chiefs side that will be smarting after last week’s defeat and should really test the Crusaders’ championship pedigree.

Prediction: Chiefs by less than 5.

Waratahs v Auto & General Lions Sydney 10.40am

The Lions have recalled Carlos Spencer at flyhalf but star scrumhalf Jano Vermaak plays only off the bench in this match against a team that will want to continue the resurgence started last week with their fortunate win over the Sharks. In that game they looked hamstrung by travel fatigue, which won’t be a factor this time, so expect the hosts to win comfortably.

Prediction: Waratahs to win by between 20 and 25.

SATURDAY

Brumbies v The Sharks Canberra 10.40

Let’s not start talking about last chance saloons for the Sharks, as we already brought up that concept last week. The Sharks, and their fans, must know it is a long way back from where they are now, and a fifth successive defeat would really be the death-knell to their Super 14 aspirations.

At the same time, stocks have sunk so low in Durban rugby that any win will feel like manna from Heaven for the Sharks, and the resulting confidence could affect a dramatic turnaround.

Wishful thinking? Perhaps not, for the Sharks did play much better last week, when they got their tactical game working much better than they had done in previous matches. But no team goes to Canberra expecting to win, so realistically it would be wrong to expect too much.

Prediction: Brumbies by less than 10.

Vodacom Bulls v Highlanders Loftus Versfeld 17.05

The Bulls didn’t even have to play last week to retain their top position on the log. They have Pierre Spies back from the team that beat the Waratahs, and although sometimes the week off for the bye is more problematic than helpful, they should have way too much power for a Highlanders team that was well beaten by the Stormers last week. Not only that, there are a few internal problems becoming evident with two players being suspended this week. Take the Bulls to significantly strengthen their already strong position on the Super 14 log table.

Prediction: Bulls by between 15 and 30.

Vodacom Stormers v Hurricanes Newlands 19.10

The Stormers have Tiaan Liebenberg back, otherwise it is the same team that beat the Highlanders 33-0. The Hurricanes, much like themselves, are a team not exactly overly blessed with great tactical kickers, which means they have to rely heavily on their runners and on the opposition defensive system making mistakes.

There have not been too many of those from the Stormers this season, with only two tries and 38 points conceded in four matches, which is the reason they should be tipped to win this one. As Schalk Burger says, however, the Hurricanes are hot and cold, and when they are hot, they are extremely hot. They have also been boosted since the defeat to the Cheetahs by the return of Conrad Smith.

Prediction: Stormers by between 5 and 15.

SUNDAY

Reds v Western Force Brisbane 8.30

Neither team sheet was available at the time of writing, but on the evidence of the form displayed by these two Australian teams so far, it should be the Reds at a canter.

Prediction: Reds by between 10 and 15.