So good they have to win - right?

The Elephants of the Ivory Coast are everybody’s tournament favourites for this competition in Equatorial Guinea and Gabon.

Mind you, they have been favourites in every tournament since the ’06 edition in Egypt. I think it will be a crying shame to many of these players who have played in these competitions if they leave this tournament without the trophy –--by the way, a more imposing trophy needs to be introduced please!

Personally, I feel their best chance was in ’08 in Ghana. I thought the vast majority of the players were at their peak and they were a solid and even spectacular unit. Despite what their passports might say, I think the spine of this team are over the hill now and will not be a menace to opponents come the next edition.

In the past 25 years or a bit less African football has been dominated by three countries of Nigeria, Cameroon and Egypt. These were teams who in their pomp won tight matches against strong opposition and destroyed with disdain inferior ones. I have always believed that those teams are the yardstick for measuring teams that want to win the Nations Cup.

Politics surely denied Nigeria from winning the ’96 and possibly the ’98 editions while M’Boma and Eto’o made sure that no team could live with the Indomitable Lions from 2000 onwards. The Cameroonians were almost impossible to play against in every way. The Egyptians on the other hand were tactically superior it seems to everything Africa wanted to present and in Zaki, Aboutrieka and Zidan they had the individual quality needed to win tournaments.

As I watch the Elephants now and their impeccably dressed manager Francois Zahoui on the bench I do not see those championship winning qualities of the previous three countries that I mentioned. Zahoui has started on a great note by telling his players to forget their luxury European lifestyles when they come to represent their country at the Cup of Nations. Spot on.

In terms of personnel, they might seem to be such a great bunch of players but when looked at deeply you can see deep cracks or that the sum is not as great as it appears. The first choice keeper Barry has never filled one with assurance when watching him. Bamba’s central defensive partnership with Kolo Toure is way too suspect for a championship winning side. Kolo has not been the same player since the ’08 edition after Egypt’s Zaki destroyed him in the semifinal.

In midfield, the team seems to want to rely more on strength and athleticism rather than craft and guile. Tiote and Zokora are two sides of one coin really while –--despite what Man City fans might say -- Yaya Toure is not a creative force.

So when you have such a midfield a lot of onus seems to fall on the front three to deliver. Didier Drogba will surely do his share. He loves playing for the Elephants and I strongly believe he is still haunted by his last minute miss in the ’06 final and wants to make up for it! Gervinho and Kalou -- should he recover -- do a lot of work. The latter is a better finisher than the Arsenal man.

The biggest problem for a team set out like this is when a match is a tight affair. When the opposition are obdurate and obstinate -- when a can opener is required rather than a hammer -- can they find it. There is also a dearth of goals from midfield and frankly, the wide forwards are not prolific.

They might well go on and win this tournament but it will not surprise me one bit if they don’t even make the final.