Spin shootout could decide the series

There is always something captivating about a test series at the height of summer in England. The realisation that the opening salvo between England and India will unfold at one of the globe’s premium sporting theatres enhances expectation. Come Thursday, hopefully a sun-drenched Lord’s will play the perfect host for an enthralling start to a series with plenty of bragging rights at stake.

A closer look at permutations heightens the sense of anticipation as it becomes patently obvious that isolated head-to-head challenges could decide the overall outcome.

The contrasting captaincy styles of Strauss and Dhoni will provide intriguing opportunities for analysis, with the latter needing to polish a tarnished reputation after the inexplicable negativity that strangely crept into his leadership in the West Indies. It still astounds that he pulled up the anchor prematurely in that final Dominica test and also appeared satisfied with a soporific batting approach at a crucial juncture in Barbados.

What should have been a 3-0 drubbing of the pirates of the Caribbean ended up being a mere single-test margin. Hopefully Dhoni has received a stern wake-up call and reverts to his normal adventurous self. Strauss, on the other hand, will steadfastly remain conservative.

The most fascinating shootout in my book will be the comparison between Swann and Harbhajan. One is rising up the charts with a rocket. The other has just nailed his 400th test wicket, becoming only the eleventh to do so, but his form is on the wane. Will the competitive juices that Harbhajan is famous for rise to the occasion to provide an extra edge? Will his well-chronicled feistiness paper over the cracks that appear to be widening and provide a reliable crutch for Dhoni to utilise?

There is no doubt that Harbhajan has been struggling over the last couple of years. The only time recently that he resembled his former self was during an initial burst in Cape Town earlier this year. Right now he is a far cry from the devastating force that exploded onto the scene and bamboozled the Australians with 32 wickets in that extraordinary series on Indian soil in March 2001.

He has lost his spark. His revolutions on the ball have diminished. His spinning seam as it travels towards the batsman is revolving at right angles instead of a more cooperative and bounce-inducing 45 degrees. He is no longer delivering with the high overspin action of previous rewarding days. He has locked the threatening and confusing doosra in a safe and forgotten the combination. Harbhajan in current form is not a genuine threat. His competitor however, is.

Swann in contrast will be his normal effervescent self. He will be bouncing all over the place, tweeting, texting, chatting, smiling and generally reveling in the occasion. His craft has evolved enormously and his strength is the considerable drift he generates as the excessive revolutions of the ball cut through the air. He is a class act and, more importantly, an infectious one. That aspect alone could be telling once the dust has settled.

Let me throw something else into the mix. Another interesting statistic is Swann’s success rate against left-handers. Of anyone with more than 100 test wickets, 53% of his victims are left-handers. That is the complete antithesis of Harbhajan’s reward rate against the same. Amazingly, considering off-spinners normally thrive on bowling to left-handers, only 32% of Harbhajan’s victims have been such.

With as many as eight lefties taking guard first up in London, I reckon it will be Graeme who will be swanning around England this Indian summer.